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Reactions to the Israel Vote: Israel's Political Right has Collapsed
Share / Recommend - Comment - Print - Wednesday, Mar 29, 06, 8:31AM
(Meretz Political Ad: Two Sperm Meet and Talk at Airport)
Some observers are suggesting that the new parties and new personalities in Israeli politics have clobbered the old.
I think that the bigger story is that the political right in Israel has imploded. Ariel Sharon as former head of the Likud Party, the party now headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, broke apart the vertebrae of the right and shattered the paralysis that had frozen Israel into a long-term self-destructive position regarding its all-important border dispute with Palestinians.
Had Ariel Sharon, who still lies in a coma, died a few days before the election, Kadima -- which drew members from both Likud and Labor -- might have added another ten seats to its tally, but this vote yesterday was not about sympathy for Sharon. In fact, Kadima performed a bit below expectations, securing just 28 seats. But that's enough -- and frankly, Olmert's need for partners makes him more pliable on some of Israel's domestic and foreign policy challenges.
Amir Peretz performed above expectations. Interestingly, his campaign was helped by the firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner which will get at least some credit in Peretz's surprising success. Stan Greenberg's firm was prominently profiled in the recent documentary hit, Our Brand is Crisis, about which I'll be writing more soon.
Peretz wants the government to focus on economic policies that improve conditions for Israel's working underclass and he is a strong believer in "negotiated" rather than "unilaterally imposed" solutions regarding to Israel's permanent borders and other issues like access to and control of Jerusalem, right of Palestinians to return, settlement-related land swaps, and the like. Peretz was able to keep Labor whole, and even moved it up a few notches above 2003 levels even though there were significant defections to Kadima.
Shas, a party of orthodox Jews, that is a likely coalition partner in the new government surged far beyond expectations and is now Israel's third largest political party. Some think that this "black hats" crowd is opposed to anything that would undermine a "Greater Israel". I'm no specialist on Shas, but in the limited discussions I have had with politically aware orthodox Jews, I sense no such rigidity. They are not part of the National Right in Israel and focus more on the religious dimensions of public policy. My sense is that Shas can support the right kind of negotiated Palestinian-Israel deal. Olmert must think so as well or he would not be inviting Shas into the government.
Israel's fourth largest political party is not the Likud, but is rather the new Yisrael Beitenu party headed by the charismatic Avigdor Lieberman -- whose party depends almost entirely on Israel's newest block of mostly-Russian speaking immigrants. Lieberman's party is ultra-nationalist and very committed to settlement protection and expansion, but at the same time must deal with the chronic underemployment and social problems related to his primary constituents. There is a lot of tension regarding the Russian immigrants, many of whom more traditional Israelis do not consider real Jews. This is something I had never heard before -- but the tectonics between other parts of Israeli society and the Russian-speaking segments are fragile.
Yisrael Beitenu will also be seen by many as the new leader of the political opposition. But one of the trends I saw when I was recently in Israel is that the supporters of this party were increasingly isolated from other parts of Israeli society -- and while they have coalesced and pushed their party forward, they may have just hit their upper water mark. I asked the Mayor of Israel's largest settlement in the Occupied territories whether he would become a champion for protecting and promoting the interests of other settlements, many of which have become dominated by the new Russian immigrants. He said definitively, "No", and said that there were serious disagreements among the heads of various settlements.
Thus, Yisrael Beitenu may have a difficult time working in common purpose with other opposition parties if it's own future strength depends upon an agitated and motivated ethnic group that other parties will no doubt either try to co-opt or isolate politically. Given that Olmert has so quickly committed himself to negotiations with the Palestinians, he is calculating that he can get away with bulldozing the supporters of Yisrael Beitenu who solidly support the far right -- but which now have little influence in any of the other leading parties.
Now in fifth, somewhat shockingly, is Likud under the probable temporary direction of Netanyahu. Netanyahu failed to capture the imagination of Israel's security-concerned citizens in the wake of Sharon's move to Kadima. Some blame Netanyahu for inspiring Rabin's death when he failed to speak out against extremist elements in his party who depicted Rabin as a latter-day Nazi. Netanyahu again failed to curb Likud elements who were doing the same with both Ariel Sharon and Olmert. This was one of the reasons why Netanyahu's efforts backfired. He flirts with radicals who tilt more towards violence and force than towards principled policy stands and constructive engagement. Some have told me that chances are high that Netanyahu will be de-throned soon.
On other fronts, the Pensioners -- a new party concerned primarily with seeing to the social safety net for Israel's more aged workers and retirees -- did unbelievably well and probably shore up Amir Peretz's intentions to drive more national attention towards the domestic economy.
The Arab parties also did resoundingly well and have done a good job of securing a Knesset presence more in line with their 20% portion of Israel's population. Interestingly, the success of the Arab parties will underscore for the Israeli Jewish parties why they must move forward on permanent status negotiations. When looking at the entire population of Israelis and Palestinians in Israel and the occupied territories, the population is about 52.5% Israeli Jew and 47.5% non-Israeli Jew, and the latter are growing at a raid democratic clip while Israeli Jews are suffering declining replacement rates.
The one somwhat sad result in this election was Meretz, headed by former Justice Minister Yossi Beilin who initiated the Oslo process and who is one of the most intelligent and capable policy players in Israeli politics. Beilin is on the left and focused his party's agenda on securing "civil marriage" -- which is a huge issue it turns out.
Rather than focusing more squarely on the needs of "civil marriage" in heterosexual relationships, Yossi's advisors pushed him to make it a campaign for civil marriage rights in both heterosexual and homosexual relationships -- but the ads promoting same-sex marriage seemed to me to stand out more than the straight ads.
Meretz ran one hilarious political ad with two guys dressed as big white "drops" -- sort of like a white candy kiss -- but these were meant to be drops of sperm (no, I'm not kidding), and they were discussing their fears of being born as a woman because women in Israel are often subjected to religious and other forms of discrimination. Then, I think (as I don't speak Hebrew) one of the sperm "hit on" the other sperm and mentioned that he looked forward to "coming out" -- code words that the sperm thinks he's gay. (Note that I may have some errors in translation from the sperm episode.)
I admire the bravery of the ads, and they are certainly far ahead of the discussions America is having on these fronts -- but still, I'm not sure that Yossi Beilin's party selected a roster of policy objectives that would move it forward. The jury is still out on whether Meretz will be brought into government or not. My sources tell me that it's doubtful at this time.
Hope these reflections are useful to those of you who don't follow the political theatrics in Israel closely. There are many sources more informed than TWN on the nuances and historical context of what is currently happening -- but I also feel that there has been a sort of "cartel" of institutions and commentators in Washington who have dominated discourse on Israel-Palestine issues, and I'm intending to help shatter that cartel.
More later.
-- Steve Clemons
Over the years, I've developed a reluctance to get overly optimistic over any single item of news dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, given the number of times I've gotten my hopes up and been wrong -- but this does seem to be a genuinely significant development. It's pretty clear that the Israeli electorate has rejected ideology in favor of pragmatism, and the 'institutions and commentators in Washington' to whom you refer are going to have a hard time now claiming that the Israeli public supports their positions.
Hear, hear to shattering the Washington Cartel that has supported the unproductive narration regarding Israel/Palestine issues!
As to the shattering of the "cartel of institutions and commentators in Washington who have dominated discourse on Israel-Palestine issues" who spread their particular biases/prejudices/lies as "truth" and "facts", give'em hell.
"I admire the bravery of the ads, and they are certainly far ahead of the discussions America is having on these fronts"
Y'know, we've had 'civil partnerships' between same-sex couple for nearly 6 months here in the UK, and yet as far as I know not a single heterosexual marriage has been destroyed, devalued or undermined by it.
You should look at the anti-gay GOTV effort in the US and be ashamed. Your image to the rest of the world is one of a nation of bigots, jingoistic weak-willed, gullible idiots.
Ben...I am ashamed. Thanks for the post,
Steve
Isn't this new party founded by Sharon just the same ole people under a new name? And the 'black hats' are just like Pat Robertson. They want to govern totally from a religous point of view making everyday people conform to the ultra right.
I don't get it -- same ole killing by everone it seems. And they can apologize for killing Rachel Corrie in my opinion. Or is that heresy.
Do hardliners on Israel still hold the helm at the White House? The Bush administration could thwart any attempts at negotiations that are not ideologically pure enough, or that don't have the proper pre-conditions, goals, etc.
Perhaps Bush will discreetly inform the Israelis that a Prime Minister from Kadima is simply not acceptable.
The only thing I have to say is that this will prove to be a serious mistake on the part of Israelis. No land giveaways to terrorists. Appeasment has never worked in history, only total victory over the enemy works. The left will destroy the free world by handing us over to the islamo-fascists.
Ben, if your islamist friends have their way, not only will there never be gay marriage, but in fact gays will be executed. And the way Europe is headed, eventually it will be an islamic caliphate. I find in highly ironic that leftists, while endorsing gay marriage and other liberal ideals, also align themselves with islamo-nazis who would destroy everything leftists claim to stand for. But the fact is, the only thing the modern-day left really stands for anymore is opposing America and Israel.
"Perhaps Bush will discreetly inform the Israelis that a Prime Minister from Kadima is simply not acceptable."
LOL!
i take serious objection to laura's "the only thing the modern day left stands for anymore is opposing America and Isreal!" Pllllleeeeaaseeee!
without the left watching and challenging the current administration, we will become a facists nation, with democracy left high and dry! can you say...warrantless wiretaps, zero habeus corpus, industrial-militarization of our once great govenment. christ, if the left lets up one iota, the right will crush the remaining democratic provisions in the constitution. look at the supreme court nominees!
Comment threads on the Washington Note---the new front line in the war on Islamofascism?
I feel like brave Hugh Hewitt, who is willing to host a radio show from ---get this---inside the Empire State Building.
(http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/008033.php).
Please Laura, don't let aim at me. I actually love my freedoms. I'd like to see more people enjoy them, actually... for instance, the Palestinians.
Laura: Islamists are as plentiful and varied as white Americans. They are not Nazis, unlike the Far Right in Israel which feeds the overt racism most Israelis display towards Arabs in general, Palestinians in particular. All this militaristic rubbish about complete and final solutions ie force (where we have heard that before?)has always been shown to be wrong and self destructive. Until Israel allows Palestinians to live without ruining their lives and property they can't have peace. Not that they actually want peace - just 'total victory' ie ethnically cleansed Palestine for themselves.
ian - i don't think that most israelis want 'total victory' & ethnic cleansing instead of peace. sadly, there is a influential minority that does, and until now has been quite successful in frightening much of the population into accepting policies which are destructive for both people (for example, land theft and the wall).
here's hoping the the saudi/arab proposal that has been again offered (peace & recognition with all arab nations for israel and a return to the 1967 border for the palestinians) can gain some political traction within israel.
after visiting in 2002, i had lost hope that a two state solution was feasible and had thought that the only hope was a one state solution with equal rights for all.
i so do hope steve is right, and that there now an opening for a political solution. however, unlike steve, i think the chances for success are greatly increased if we (the usa) will stay out of it. unless someone like carter is permitted to lead our delegation.
i fear that the palestinian people (as well as much of the arab world) will not trust any negotiating process that includes us.
Seems to me Labor didn't do any better than predicted, just that Kadima did worse. And Likud much worse.
Sure hope you're right that Lieberman's party has reached its high-water mark. Racists who act as 'shock troops' for comfortable conservatives --it's a bit too familiar.
Laura, let me assure you that I have no friends who are fascist. I'd hesitate to say the same about you.
All your bed-wetting hyperbole about Islamic caliphates (ooh, big word, littlegreenfootballs have a word of the day now?) and giving away land to terrorists is just bluster and paranoid fantasy. I suggest that instead of attacking people for no reason other than they're not as deluded as you obviously are you go read up on the subjects at hand and form a considered opinion.
By the way, "terrorists" tend to be defined as guerillas who attack what are traditionally non-targets such as civilian populations and infrastructure. Go read up on the "security fence" and what Israel does with their armoured bulldozers, and "targetted killings", and "collective punishment", and then tell me who the terrorists are. Hint - we're all terrorists now.
Gotta go now, I've got US flags to burn and blastocyst Americans to crush under my jackboot.
"Appeasment has never worked in history, only total victory over the enemy works."
Couldn't let this one get away - Have you ever heard of place called "Northern Ireland"? Would love to hear your thoughts on what we should do/should have done there. By your logic, the British army should be bulldozing the Shankill Road, slaughtering all catholics of fighting age, etc etc. You do understand the specific meaning of "total victory", I take it.
Peace came to Northern Ireland as a result of power sharing, prisoner release, looking the other way as former terrorist kingpins moved to drug dealing and cross-bordr smuggling. For 30 years the alternative method was tried and failed - are you saying that the British Army wasn't brutal enough?
Your paper-thin arguments don't hold up to any sort of study really, do they?
U.S. cuts off contacts with Hamas-led government
30 Mar 2006 00:55:09 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Paul Eckert
WASHINGTON, March 29 (Reuters) - The United States ordered its diplomats and contractors on Wednesday to cut off contacts with Palestinian ministries after a Hamas-led government was sworn in, the State Department said.
Can we sponsor a UN resolution to require pundits and web-posters to undergo a three-day waiting period before using the word "fascist"? There is nothing "corporatist" about Jihadis.
And Laura, thank you for enlightening us with your views. I really admire the effort. Typing is hard for people without opposable thumbs.
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