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BUSH-KERRY DEBATE AND THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE

Share / Recommend - Comment - Print - Thursday, Sep 30 2004, 5:16PM

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THE PROJECTED ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE HAS ACTUALLY NARROWED. I check out www.Electoral-Vote.com as often as possible as the proprietor of the site has excellent commentary on the latest polls as well as very informed commentary on the increasing unreliability of these polls.

Last time I checked, Bush had well more than 300 projected electoral votes -- but today, he's down to 280 according to this site. When you look at the state by state breakdown, there are a lot of states and electoral votes tied up in "barely Bush" states. A shift in these could make a huge difference for Kerry.

Of course, Kerry has a lot of "barely Kerry" states -- many more, in fact, than Bush -- and if he flubs the debate, Bush could zoom forward again.

I am just back to Washington, D.C. after several days in New York -- and flying back, I sat next to and talked the ear off German Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, a fascinating and capable diplomat who said that after the debates, he has to send a brief to the German Foreign Ministry by midnight or so (6 a.m. German time).

Like all of us here in the U.S., many in the world are going to be watching these debates and trying to assess if the winner on November 2nd will be clear after tonight's exchange.

More later....after I hear whether Kerry propose "Stock Options for Soldiers." I've had 300 plus emails that think it's a great idea..and about three against.

-- Steve Clemons

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Reader Comments (2) - post a comment

Posted by peter jung Sep 30, 10:33PM - Link

I've just about given up watching the poll numbers. The methodology varies wildly from one poll to another, and we know that Big Media is spinning everything to favor Bush. Better that we just keep doing the grunt work of politics, and make sure that we get lots of people to the polls in November. GOP officials are doing everything they can to deny ballot access to newly registered voters- that tells me that they are worried about the effectiveness of Democratic GOTV efforts.

Posted by Darci Oct 01, 8:46AM - Link

Steve, Do you know when the new state by state polls will be out? This tool at ElectoralVote.com is really fascinating -- and thanks for letting us know about it.