Nice post, Steve. There is also distressing silence on this matter among various news outlets, who could be more effectively providing the historical context for what all this means, as you do here.

Still a little wishy-washy, Steve, but you are getting there. These bastards in the White House are the gravest danger our democracy has ever faced. Civility and "politics as usual" aren't going to dislodge them. Neither is an electoral system that is broken and criminally corrupted.

Worse, these people are becoming like cornered rats, and who the hell knows how many of us they will murder in another staged terrorist attack to force us back on the fear train?

I don't see any heroes riding to the rescue. Eventually, it will be up to "we the people". And I think we long ago lost the will to fight for our freedoms. We're in deep shit.

Agree with Stoller, nice post, don't agree with Pissed Off, not wishy-washy, rather, well written. I begin to believe more and more that there is just language.

Ohmygod and halleluja! As one of the shrill hyperventilators (it's in my nature, since I'm an operasiner and even worse, a tenor) who warned you about Addington and the Unitary Presidency, I am heartened by the burgeoning public debate on this. We may be coming to a crossroads, because I think Cheney may be finally crossing a bridge too far with his new initiative on Russian policy (see Peter Baker in the WP today). This is Rice's homeground and workouts with the President carry a lot of weight.

As a Democratic ward-heeler, I am morose at my own party's complicity in all of this. That Cheney would embrace a radical agenda is bad, and a bit surprising. But, my party's complicity is something I would do something about.

As SecDef, Cheney he was seen as a "moderate" by most Democratic office-tenders. He cut the US defense budget as much as some Democrats wanted, in any case, more than they could on their own. (We whine about it, never actually cut it.)

And, since the Civil War, Democrats have relied on "Moderate Republicans" to do heavy lifiting on defense and foreign policy. This turns out to be a profound weakness. It indulges the left wing of my party its narcisstic pacifism and the right wing of party its devotion to little more than patronage and pork.

The Great Triangulator was able to keep these two interest-groups united behind GOP moderates. But, that collapsed in 1994, ending altogether in 2000. The GOP "don't need no stinkin' bi-partisanship" today. And, without it, Democrats are moribund.

One fall-back would be and should be progressive and disciplined state parties, well, large-state parties. Actually, just one would tip the whole thing. I think Virginia, Texas, or California could do it.

Part of the answer for such a state would be dealing with Fourth-Generation Warfare on its own terms. for instance, dealing with security challenges posed by "foreign-run" ports would be a good test. We can start from the fact that both sides to the Washington controversy are covering their own sorry-asses.

So, which great party in which great state with a great port will use its state sovereignty to deal with these matters serously?

Here in Houston, as in New Orleans, the bond-lawyers have been rigging deals for decades with foreign investors and also with those involved in the "offset" of US arms and aircraft exports.

We have the extremes of both parties in elected county and city offices. But, most government is truly in the hands of bond-lawyers, "nationally -- now internationally -- recognized firms of bond counsel". They long ago delivered the port and just about anything -- remember those Italian frigates the previous Bush financed for Saddam Hussein with an agricultural loan or, of course, Enron (our most strategic pipeline hub) -- to foreign interests working through these long-established networks of lawyer-lobbyists.

This is not secret or conspiratorial government.

These are old, respected "provincial concession-tenders", since the post-reconstruction era. Their core technology on the ground here is keeping the races hostile through, "Race Riots", "Segregation", but, now, through forms of "affirmative action" based on professional and racial patronage.

But, the bond-lawyers are just instruments of the "Anglo-American overclass" described by LIND/JUDIS -- obscure, not secret, mostly, but not exclusively, WASP.

Thus, JUDIS is onto the connection between the "offset" of Boeing exports to Dubai and the
import of "logistical services" from ... well, from whoever, under whatever name, who owned P&O before and after the recent acquisition. Could it be the same family all along? The one that owns Dubai?

Remember, a key tenent of Fourth-Generation Warfare is de-legitimization of the state -- a matter that both al-Qaida ("terrorists") and The Carlyle Group ("merchant bankers") contribute to and exploit.

It is pretty easy to usurp power when the most basic institutions of republican democracy have long been subverted and the competition between parties is mostly just for funding by a Third Party, the Donor Party, provincial concession-tenders, mostly, now representing the domestic interests of our foreign creditors more than even our own overclass.

"One fall-back would be and should be progressive and disciplined state parties, well, large-state parties. Actually, just one would tip the whole thing. I think Virginia, Texas, or California could do it."

Which is PRECISELY why the criminal certification of the Diebold machines just occurred in California.

Yep.

I disagree with your notion that Bush is the "Big Boss". Consider the fact that after Cheney shot a lawyer, no one bothered to inform Bush about it. Why? Because they didn't think it was important to. No Cheney IS running the show. Cheney, Rumsfeld, Hadley, Bolton, and Rove. The rest are just bit players in this horror flick. Do you realize you just called the Vice President of the United States a thug? I like that. It is time that people wake up to the fact that this country is no longer governed by the people for the people.

I wish I could shake the feeling that Stephen Hadley has Steve convinced that he and Secretary Rice are some sort of 'good guys' here...

By comparison with Cheney, Rumsfeld, Addington, and Cambone, just about anyone looks good. And the 'unitary executive' gang needs to be opposed directly and broadly. But Rice and Hadley don't represent anything worth defending; they are part of the problem, not the solution.

Steve:
Isn't this just an expansion of the "few rotten apples" theme? The reason Bush/Cheyney et al maintain the ability to bully is that they control the campaign money, the lobbying jobs, a large part of the main stream media, a bunch of evangelical pulpits both in the flesh and over the wires, etc etc.

Sure there are more moderate republicans left, but I quote the mayor from a small town in Colorado, "I didn't leave the party, the party left me".

It is becoming increasingly clear to many Americans that the current crew is bad news, but many don't see an alternative.

The Sopranos have nothing on the Bush mob. Fortunately the Sopranos are fiction. Unfortunately, the Bush Mob is not.

The only ones in a position to damage Addington and his ilk are insiders. And while numerous insiders have finally grown disgusted and then left and leaked, the Bush mob holds vitual public executions for any who come close to laying a glove on them.

Just out of curiosity: does anyone happen to know if there's anything preventing a vice president from serving more than two terms? The 22nd Amendment (two-term presidential limit) only specifies the President by name.

The shorter version of what you describe is "bloodless coup," if one doesn't count the blood spilled in Iraq. That probably sounds hyperventilationist, but it's an accurate description of a situation in which the executive has effectively placed himself above the law.

The "tractionless hyperventilation" has been far from tractionless. It's been embarassing to the Democratic establishment, but as you noted in your post about the separation of journalistic shurch and state, Democrat office holders are now cozying up to influential bloggers who have been prominent among the hyperventilation faction. The reason for that is the influence the hyperventilation has had upon politically active Democratic constituents: this has been a bottom-up affair.

If the "loyal minority" have not done their part, do they deserve the appellation? I don't think so: I think it bestows a measure of dignity they haven't earned. I think that if Lawrence Franklin was so appalled by what he saw, he should have resigned and spoken out about it; had he done so, and had all the others who knew very well that the invasion of Iraq was a fact accomplished done so, we may have avoided that bloodbath and all the collateral damage from it. Working to change the system from the inside is fine, but when that fails, the loyal thing to do is quit and go public. By not doing so, the dissenters in the administration have enabled the monsters. Speaking out a year after you've left office and at time when the public mood has dramtically shifted takes some courage, but it doesn't raise the dead.

Unitary Caesar says, "it's my presidency and you'll die if I say so." What's a poor person to do. "Die unworthy dog", replies the secret power behind the throne. Isn't it far better to die for a misanthropic madman than to die in say a foiled bank heist? Bank heist or seditious power grab, it's all the same to Dick. Deadeye Dick of the shotguns for Jesus crowd. Wouldn't Jesus have preferred a shotgun? Of course Jesus would have preferred a shotgun. Therefore, wouldn't Jesus have preferred a 'unitary executive' to say, just some trailer park Caesar? Beware the Ides of March and beware of Deadeye Dick Cheney and especially when he's packing a loaded shotgun.

In these analyses, however excellent, it's easy to overlook the big picture.

There is no opposition. Why not? Because there is a highly efficient, institutionalized SYSTEM in place that
- punishes defectors/detractors, very nastily
- rewards cooperators, quite handsomely

Exactly how it works is not clear to me, but part of the answer is money. Take an electronic walk around FEC data, replete with PAC to PAC to PAC dollars floating around and you might develop some thoughts of your own. The financial system alone is bigger than all of us, we don't understand it, only insiders know it and they aren't going to tell. It's simply too good . . . and too dangerous.

It's also very, significantly, disgustingly corrupt. We're trying to manage unleashed corruption by using reason as we seek to understand. Unfortunately, I think we're trying to understand the wrong thing.

When we ask the question "is the veep a thug?" we have our answer. When we follow that question with another, "could Addington be one of the thugees?" we're wasting our time.

Bleeding heart,
I agree completely.
I have asked Steve if he could shed some insight into the enforcement mechanisms of Bushco.
Clearly they have very powerful "incentives" to keep people in line.
A couple of examples worth considering. First, how was Buchanan dissuaded from running in 2004?
As I recall, he made a rather abrupt decision not to run, and not based on any principles. What was the threat?
Another example I believe is worth reconsidering is the Perot candidacy of 1992. As I recall, when he temporarily withdrew, he cited some threats on his daughters. I wonder if they really did receive threats, sent by people who wanted to rattle him. More recently, Voinovich seems to have quieted down after vigorously opposing Bolton. I suspect in his case, the threat would be to expose his ties to the unraveling GOP conspiracy in OH. I have little doubt that Voinovich is quite corrupt , by the usual standards, so he can be kept in line this way.

The Washington Note works hard to provide constructive, serious critiques of Bush administration foreign policy and attempts to avoid reckless typecasting or tractionless hyperventilation regarding what this administration is up to.

Excellent post, Steve. Thank you.

Steve, we appreciate reasoned eloquence and "attempts to avoid reckless typecasting or tractionless hyperventilation regarding what this administration is up to." But I would respectfully submit the obvious and ample, no, more accurately the voluminous and overwhelming evidence that Dick Cheney simply doesn't give a rat's ass what you or anyone but his wife thinks.

The point is, he's not going to change his behavior, he routinely wields far more power than the President, and the only way he's going to leave office is to be carried away in restraints or on a stretcher. Outing and vilifying Addington will not serve to stop him any more than outing and vilifying Libby stopped him.

> I want change in policy -- not shrillness for its own sake ....to do whatever I can to delegitimate and defang Cheney's operation.

Great to hear Steve. So how do we combat this ?

Cheney and co are truly Orwellian. A war without end, used for propaganda purposes to justify anything the govt. wants to do. Truth becomes entirely irrelevant.

It is a mistake to think that ANYTHING they say necessarily has any relationship to truth. They say whatever they think will most please whatever audience they are talking to on a given day.

The Bottom Line...They lie all the time only occasionally telling the truth in cases where it happens to suit their political needs at the moment.

So once again how do we combat this so more mainstream Joe and Jane American 'GET IT' ?

Make this November's election about "accountability" and make sure the Republicans are tied to Bush, 100%. Then, if the Democrats win, investigate, impeach, convict, and then send Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld et. al. to the Hague, or try them here, where our penalties for treason are a bit more severe.
Maybe the public won't vote against Bush, but they deserve a clear choice in November.

I agree that the presentation is a bit weak and wishy washy but the stakes are very high and a little shrillness is whats needed. The way to get Cheney is to hammer away, espeically through the blogs but also through the mass media, at the fact that we now know Valerie Plame's area of WMD expertise dealt with Iran, and the outing of her as a covert agent destroyed more than 10 years worth of contacts and undercover work at a time when we needed this more than ever. Cheney and Bush managed to get re-elected by fooling ignorant people into thinking they were to be trusted the most when it comes to national security. Showing how Bush and Cheney has endangered the country through the Plame outing will bring them down.

As another of the "shrill hyperventilators" it is mildly encouraging to see more and more "policy experts" in the more lofty circles finally come around to admitting that the Bush government is prosecuting a grotesque and dangerous re-engineering of our once more perfect union.

The policies, designs, ambitions, and unholy activities of this government are unprecedented in the depth and breadth of its perversion of America's principles, re-engineering of America's democracy, dividing of our once more perfect union, marauding and pilfering of the public treasure, betrayal of the public trust, and ruthless and belligerent breaking of the laws of the land repeatedly and insistantly.

Also rewarding is that fact that much the incendiary commentary my many voices from theleft that was robopathically slimed and dismissed as conspiracy theory and the rantings of lunatics a few years ago, - is FINALLY resonating, and being appreciated and accepted by policy experts in the more lofty circles as legitimate, credible, reasonable, and based in well documented and vetted factbasedrealities.

Simply because the abuses, deceptions, failures, derelictions of duty, systemic cronyism, and wanton profiteering appear unprecedented and so grotesque, extreme, foul and malevolent that it is almost impossible to imagine, let alone recognize or accept - does not mean every single one of these obscene horrors and offenses prosecuted by fascist warmonges, profiteers, incompetent chickenhawks, and rapturist fanatics are well document, rooted in factbasedreality, and tragically true.

Gloating aside, - the solution is to work diligently in every possible way to remove any shred, any fiber, any nano particle of legitimacy, credibility, integrity, noble intentions, or good faith from any policy, commentary, or activity by any Bush government official.

The Bush government has no legitimacy, credibility, integrity, nor are any of the policies or activities prosecuted by the Bush government noble, conducted in good faith, or in the best interests of the American people.

Rather, every single policy and activity prosecuted by the Bush government is exclusively intended to advance, promote, protect, cloak, or implement the best interests of select klans, cronies, oligarch, cults, and cabals in, or beholden to the Bush government.

Our leaders are bent of greed, domination, the spilling of innocent blood, neverendingwar, tyrannical supremist dictatorial powers, and engorging their off sheet accounts, - and have absolute ZERO concern or respect for the best interests of the American people, or America.

Framing these monsters in any other light is a deceptive distortion of factbasedreality, and a naked lie.

The entire brood of hobgobblins in the Bush government must be forcefully isolated, exposed as the reprobates, lockstep partisans, warmongers, war profiteers, criminals, rapturist religious fanatics, supremists, fascists, and pathological liars they are, - and REMOVED from positions of power and authority, including the President, the Vice President, the Secretary's of Defense, State, Homeland Security, the head of the CIA, the FBI, - the entire regime must decapitated, and changed.

Those found guilty of crimes must be sent to prison and forbidden from holding any government position or office, or employment with or by any network, thinktank, or defense contractor.

Without these harsh responses to the radical assault on and re-engineering of American's democracy, betrayal of the public trust, marauding of the public treasure, wanton profiteering, perverting of America's core principles, and breaking of the law repeatedly and insistantly by agents of officials in the Bush government and especially the President, the VP, the Secretaries of Defense, State, and Homeland Security - there will be no remedy or justice for the people.

Just as the same odious pack of hobgobblins re-animated after Nixon and Watergate, Reagan and Iran Contra, and Bush I and the Octopus to re-populate and advance their fascist corporatist supremist fanatical agendas unfettered by the Constitution and the rule of law in the current Bush government - the very same slithering deceptive conniving ruthless brood of warmongers, profiteers, incompetent chickenhawks, corportatist cronies imperialist supremist and fascist rightwingideologues, and rapturist fanatics will creep and slither their way into a future government until and unless they are sent to prison, condemned as charlatans, criminals, and traitors, and expressly forbidden from any involvement with any future government office or branch, media conglomerate, or defense contractor, or military organization.

In other words, and I believe your eloquant post is basically calling for something very like these demands, - America must execute regime change here in the homeland, or surrender our future to the fascist warmongers, profiteers, incompetent chickenhawks, and rapturist religious fanatics in the Bush government totalitarian dictatorship

Of course a start would be a functional opposition party and a alternative to the 'security president'.

The one thing enabling the administration are the so called 'long war' Are there any candidate for a political that is willing too stand up and say that the war is nonsense? Islamic extremist could easily be fought with a few special forces and intelligence agencies. If there's not a state of war there is no need for a war president.

I wouldn't 'accuse' the commenters here of posting out of "shrillness for its own sake." They share their desperation here with you and at the same time have an excellent source of information. Many people who've written comments here over the years do not have access to the inner workings of the belthway, are not connected in any way to the power structures in the business world and do not have an Ivy League background.

The vast majority of citizens being powerless was the hallmark of the Roman Republic (most Roman citizens had no access to power) and has been the hallmark of Republicanism in the United States. The United States are a true republic but can hardly be called a democracy. The United States thrives on immigration (top and lowest strata) rather than educating its own people (as did Rome); voting has no direct impact on power structures (the system yields an oligarchy rather than an equal distribution of power as was the case in Rome); economic competence is perceived as a civic virtue (as was the case in Rome); a harsh battle among the elites over the course of the Republic dominates political discourse rather than a civic debate regarding the well being of its people (as was the case in Rome); exclusive rather than inclusive thinking dominates a Republic; legal rather than civic debate dominates a Republic.

Republics have a tendency of becoming monolithic oligarchies, as you can read back in Jonathan Israel's 'The Dutch Republic'. Or you can ask the French who are now in their Fifth Republic and are being challenged by citizens who have no access to French society.

I am not at all surprised by the shrillness of the comments posted here. The internet gives the formerly not accounted for a voice to share their worries, anger and discontent. Almost democratic.

Tony Foresta superb telling it like it really is rant.

' Of course a start would be a functional opposition party and a alternative to the 'security president' '

ckrantz, the turn to progressive candidates is starting to happen, but it can't happen fast enough to make a difference. The problem is that in 6 months, we're either going to be in a nuclear World War or Cheney will be gone. If that's tractionless hyperventilation, so be it, but as a prediction it is correct in essence and particulars. Let me show the calculus:

1) Iran is opening a euro-denominated oil bourse in mere weeks, which will provide a means for many countries to begin exchanging their dollar reserves for euro reserves.

2) Iran's primary military and economic allies are now China and Russia.

3) US military forces cannot attack Iran by conventional means and achieve strategically desireable outcomes; neither can they hold Iraq indefinitely.

4) The US is obviously losing control of its hold on the energy supply which most backs its long-term debt, so it has almost run out of imperial time.

5) The US cannot remove Iran as a threat via hard or soft power without providing casus belli to countries possessing oil supply or nuclear weapons; China and Russia respectively enjoy growing advantages in soft power and in hard power proximity with regards to Tehran and Baghdad.

6) US military options are narrowing to a) pull out of Iraq and let China and Russia gain control of Mideast oil, or b) attempt a rapid regime change in Iran by any and all means.

7) Losing control of Mideast oil is synonymous with economic and political collapse; the Crazies in our government now favor a preemptive nuclear strike on Iran, whether openly or by proxy.

8) Iran and Venezuela have both threatened to cut off oil supply to the US; if they did, the US economy would implode in 10 days.

The only winning strategic option remaining to Cheney-ites is to threaten to deploy their nuclear arsenal. Or, alternatively, they could voluntarily step down in disgrace and defeat and watch the ascendance of religions, economic interests, and countries other than their own. So please explain to me how electing a few progressives in November will get us out of the jam we're in. Hyperventilating yet?

Marclord,
I don't think that talk of a nuclear attack on Iran is shrill. At a minimum, one should not rule it out. I wonder if anyone in the media will have the courage to ask Bush, Cheney, or Mclellan if a nuclear attack on Iran is a possibility.
If Mclellan replies, "That's absurd", or "that's totally ridiculous", then you prepare for the fallout---we are going to nuke Iran.

From Financial Times

US marines probe tensions among Iran’s minorities
By Guy Dinmore in Washington

The intelligence wing of the US marines has launched a probe into Iran’s ethnic minorities at a time of heightened tensions along the border with Iraq and friction between capitals.

Iranian activists involved in a classified research project for the marines told the FT the Pentagon was examining the depth and nature of grievances against the Islamic government, and appeared to be studying whether Iran would be prone to a violent fragmentation along the same kind of fault lines that are splitting Iraq.

The research effort comes at a critical moment between Iran and the US. Last week the Bush administration asked Congress for $75m to promote democratic change within Iran, having already mustered diplomatic support at the UN to counter Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme.

At the same time, Iran has demanded that the UK withdraw its troops from the southern Iraqi city of Basra which lies close to its border. Iran has repeatedly accused both the US and UK of inciting explosions and sabotage in oil-rich frontier regions where Arab and Kurdish minorities predominate. The US and UK accuse Iran of meddling in Iraq and supplying weapons to insurgents.

US intelligence experts suggested the marines’ effort could indicate early stages of contingency plans for a ground assault on Iran. Or it could be an attempt to evaluate the implications of the unrest in Iranian border regions for marines stationed in Iraq, as well as Iranian infiltration.

Other experts affiliated to the Pentagon suggest the investigation merely underlines that diverse intelligence wings of the US military were seeking to justify their existence at a time of plentiful funding.

Lieutenant-Colonel Rick Long, a marines spokesman, confirmed that the marines had commissioned Hicks and Associates, a defence contractor, to conduct two research projects into Iraqi and Iranian ethnic groups.

The purpose was “so that we and our troops would have a better understanding of and respect for the various aspects of culture in those countries”, he said. He would not provide details, saying the projects were for official use only.

Marine Corps Intelligence defines its role as focusing “on crises and predeployment support to expeditionary warfare”. It also provides threat and technical intelligence assessments for the Marines.

The first study, on Iraq, was completed in late 2003, more than six months after marines spearheaded the US invasion. About 23,000 marines are still in Iraq. The Iran study was finished late last year.

Hicks and Associates is a wholly owned subsidiary of Science Applications International Corp, one of the biggest US defence contractors and deeply involved in the prewar planning for Iraq.

The Strategic Assessment Center of Hicks and Associates advertises one of its current projects as the “Impact of Foreign Cultures on Military Operations”. SAIC confirmed it completed the confidential studies for the Marine Corps.

While most analysts would agree that Iran has a far stronger sense of national identity than Iraq, its ethnic mix is even more complex than its neighbour.

Different in language and divided between followers of Sunni and Shia Islam, the ethnic minorities have little coherence. At times tensions among themselves are greater than with Tehran. Iran’s strongly centralised government does not release statistics on the ethnic groups that mainly inhabit sensitive border regions with Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Farsi-speaking Persians who dominate the central government are generally believed to make up a slim majority, followed by Azeris and Kurds in the north and west, Arabs in the oil-rich southwest and Baluch in the southeast.

A patchwork of Turkmen, Christian Armenians and Assyrians, Jews and tribal nomads are among many groups scattered across a country of some 68m people.

Diplomats in Washington expressed shock at the possible implications of the Marine Corps research.

The Financial Times interviewed several Iranians in the US who were invited to help. Some refused, seeing it as part of an effort to break up Iran. However several exiled politicians representing minority groups opposed to the Islamic regime did agree to take part, although they said they wanted a peaceful transition to a democratic, federal Iran and were opposed to any US military action.

Mauri Esfandiari, US representative of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan which ended its armed struggle in 1997 and is based mostly in northern Iraq, said he believed the Pentagon was acting on its long-standing distrust of CIA and State Department analysis. He thought the Pentagon was looking to counter the prevailing administration view that US support for Iran’s minorities would create a disastrous backlash.

“They want to study and see if the State Department’s chaos theory is a valid hypothesis,” he told the FT. The US could not look to the Kurds to support an invasion as they did in Iraq, he said. “Iran will become democratic only if it is built by the Iranians. The democracy movement is strong enough to find its way without military struggle,” he said.

Karim Abdian, head of the Ahvaz Human Rights Organisation which campaigns on behalf of Iranian Arabs in the south-west, said his meeting with SAIC was video-taped. He was told the report would be made public.

Questions put to him were wide-ranging -- on the ethnic breakdown of Khuzestan province on the Iraq border, populations in cities, the level of discontent, the percentage of Arabs working in the oil industry, how they were represented in the central government, and their relations and kinship with Iraqi Arabs next door.

Mr Abdian said he did not know the motives behind the survey, whether the Marines were seeking a better understanding of the region that directly affects them, or were forming a contingency plan in case they had to “enter” Iran. They were learning from the lessons of Iraq where they had not understood the ethnic dynamics, he suggested.

Mr Abdian, who says his organisation has no government funding, accused Iran of using the threat of a US invasion as a pretext to suppress ethnic grievances rather than address what he called the root causes of land confiscation and discrimination.

Exiled Iranians from various ethnic groups held a “Congress” of nationalities in London a year ago. They issued a “manifesto” for a federal, democratic Iran with separation of mosque and state. Seven organizations included Baluch, Azeris, Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen.

Iran has recently experienced some of the worst unrest and violence among its Kurdish and Arab populations in recent years.

Although the root causes of the unrest -- economic and cultural grievances -- are long standing, analysts in the US believe that events in Iraq – where the new constitution has embraced the concept of federalism and a Kurd has become president -- are serving as a catalyst.

Last month two bombs exploded in Ahvaz, the capital of Khuzestan province close to Iraq. Eight people were killed on the same day that President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad had been due to visit. Six people were killed in bombings last October. Oil installations have been attacked. Iran has repeatedly accused the UK and US of being behind the violence, using separatist Arab groups in southern Iraq to foment instability inside Iran.

“We are very suspicious of British forces’ involvement in terrorist activities,” Mr Ahmadi-Nejad was quoted as saying last October. He accused British troops in Iraq of “hiring terrorists for sabotage”.

London and Washington have strongly denied Iran’s allegations.

Tehran cannot afford to dismiss minority grievances out of hand and seeks to blame the violence on outside forces, says Bill Samii, an Iran analyst with Radio Free Europe.

“The regime can crush dissent when it is localised and relatively small,” he commented.”But if sporadic incidents of ethnic unrest occurred across the country simultaneously, or if such troubles coincided with labour troubles and student demonstrations then the regime would have its hands full.” Given these developments, the question of Iran’s minorities has aroused interest across Washington.

State Department officials met representatives of the London “Congress” in the first such talks between the Bush administration and a coalition claiming to represent Iran’s minorities, participants told the FT.

Last October, the conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI) held a conference chaired by Michael Ledeen, a proponent of regime change in Iran. It triggered uproar among exiled opposition groups, especially Persian nationalists. Mr Ledeen called the conference “Another case for Federalism?” and denied that AEI was seeking to foment separatism.

Reuel Gerecht, also with AEI and a former CIA specialist on the Middle East, says the State Department under Condoleezza Rice, and not the Pentagon, is running Iran policy. He said State was “several steps removed” from discussing covert action and “nowhere near the point” of trying to use separatist tendencies among minorities as traction against the Tehran regime. No one knew whether that would work, he added.

However, he complimented the Pentagon for “looking down the road”.

A former intelligence officer said the Marines’ probe reflected the “contingency planning” mindset of the US military. Nonetheless, he said, it was important to note that the ultimate purpose of the intelligence wing was “to support effective ground military operations by the Marine Corps”.

When they got reelected, I placed a bet they would nuke someone before the end of the second term.

Even if both houses of Congress changed hands in November, it won't stop them. In fact it might push them intoto more reckless tendencies (if that's possible).

An honest evaluation is greatly appreciated. I do not like just hearing partisan rhetoric, the good details are what makes a good argument.
Raymond B
www.voteswagon.com

One thousand thanks km4, and tragically you both raise good points MarcLord, and marky - Any reasonable, intelligent, factbasedreality approach to the Iran "problem" would preclude the threat or the even the discussion of nukes, since the unintended concequences of the use of nukes, or any attack on Iran under present circumstances - would be and remain very spooky unknown unknowns.

Our own military and intelligence has conducted wargames along these lines, and were not happy with the potential, or possible outcomes.

Yet, sadly - reason, intelligence, and factbasedreality do NOT apply to, or influence the decision making of the facsist warmongers, profiteers, incompetent chickenhawks, and rapturist fanatics in the Bush government totalitarian dictatorship.

The fiends, beasts, shaitans, shades, iblis, and monsters in the Bush government totalitarian dictatorship are pathologically bent on advancing, promoting, and implementing purely ideological, and exclusively personal gains and do not abide by any logic, fact, math, law, principle, standard, code, or constitution.

Our leaders are fascist, seeking dominion, domination, and the ruthless entrenching and engorging of wealth and resources of cronies, clans, cabals, cults, and oligarchs in or beholden to the fascist tyrants in or beholden to the Bush government totalitarian dictatorship.

Later in March Iran moves it's oil borse from dollars to Euro's.

Nothing is stopping Venezeula from doing the same.

Should markets react negatively to these massive changes in currency positions, and the markets loose faith, or even diminish faith in the dollar, and say Saudi Arabia (sitting on 1.5 trillion in US treasuries) or (China, sitting on 5 trillion in US treasuries) decide to liquidate dollars for Euro's, - the party is over!

The financial consequences to America will be devastating.
Interests rates in the high double digits.

A radical, and I mean massively brutal reduction in federal services and entitlements.

Massive defaults on mortgaged, and multiple mortgaged properties.

A punishing cascade or tsunami or complex and interpenetrating impacts, influences, spikes, and shocks to our economy and - well - America as we once knew it, - will be forever changed.

Russia, the second largest oil producer is on good terms with Iran, and has all of Europe by the proverbial bawls,.

China needs oil and energy to feed it's chaotic and ferocious emergence into the 21 Century.

The point chlling point is - the rest of the is not interested in American hegemony.

America as a stable, prosperous, law abiding, freedom loving and honoring, and democratic republic - is worth of the worlds trust and good faith.

But woe to us, if America is percieved by the rest of the world as a fascist, predatory, imperialist, overtly corporatist, militarist, unprincipled, lawless, brutish, ignorant, totalitarian dictatorship commandeered by warmongers, profiteers, incompetent chickenhawks, and rapturist fanatics - because the rest of the world will not stand idle and silent in the face of American hegemony and the insane delusions and malignant perversions of the Pax Americana neverendingwar and empire agenda.

"Deliver us from evil."

Tony,
I rarely come off as sounding less shrill than other Bush critics, but I don't think a switch to an oil bourse in euros is likely to have a swift impact on the markets. In the long term, yes, the US will be affected negatively, if countries beginning keeping their reserves in euros. All economists I have read say the near-term danger of a euro bourse is small. However, I don't for a moment discredit the thought that the Bush administration would consider the new bourses as nearly an act of war.

hi,

congrats a nice post.. suggest putin as cheney model.. strong indications that Vlad holds 85% of all the power in russia

Yo Steve,

Your link(s) from the Politics Online ad are broken & I have tried several times over the last 24 hours to email you about the problem but the email bounces :

"...SMTP error from remote server after RCPT command:
host inbound.registeredsite.com[64.224.219.122]:
554 5.7.1 User Over Quota..."

"Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know." - M. King Hubbert

hi marky,

In strictly financial terms, no, the oil bourse will not be able to make an immediate large negative impact on the dollar. In fact central banks will do their damndest to minimize negative dollar impact. But traders do look down the road, we would do well to recall that Saddam started selling Euro-denominated oil short years before getting squashed:

http://www.thinkandask.com/news/thedollar.html

We could send truckloads of "1984" to the White House. It is as forceful today as when it was first published. A way to attract readers.
I hope it is not too late.

Absolutely right about Addington. Cheney immediately replaced Libby with his real hit-man instead of a spokesman for the hit-man. Doug Feith goes into hiding. Colin Powell gives one or two interviews and goes into hiding. Yoo gives lectures all over the place ans gets paid by Cal Berkeley, off all places. Hadley spouts more lies on national TV. We need to explain to america that these people should have two options: Either get up in front of America and honestly admit what the F** happened here, or be shunned.
peace,
jim

I can never remember "Unitary Executive" cause it reminds me of focus groups. Around our house such conceits are called "The Imperial Singularity".

There's something sort of Moonie-ish in its logic, isn't there?

I hadn't before connected the elevation of the power of the Office of the Vice-President to the Bush administration's notion of the unitary executive. That's interesting. Moreover, it is ironic that the thrust of Federalist No. 70, which is sometimes wrongly cited in support of Bush's notion of the unitary executive, is a warning against the dangers of an executive power that comprises a number of power centers within the executive branch.

Point taken marky, but beware the Ides of March.

The founding fathers imbedded into the foundation of our democracy certain separation of powers, and various checks and balances in the structure of our government with specific intent of prohibiting and preventing the possibility of any overarching usurpation and concentration of power by any single gloup, clicque, Klan, cult, party, oligarch, organization or individual, and exactly the kind of fascist totalitarian dictatorship we must hazard, burden, and endure now in and with the Bush government.

The sooner, the mass of American people begin recognizing and realizing that the Bush government is not simply stupid, incompetent, obdurate, imperialist, supremist, corporatist, or rapturist, - but actually FASCIST, - evil - bent on and thirsting for neverendingwar, shedding the blood of innocents, concquering and dominating the earth and all nations, (including America) with the terrible swift sword of America's military hypersuperiority, - and reigning and ruling over the earth and all nations Olympian and supreme.

Pretending these warmongers, profiteers, incompetent chickenhawk, crony capitalists, imperialists, and fascists are in any way operating in good faith, or seeking noble or just ends, or promoting the general welfare, or the peoples bests interests is a suicidal delusion.

Unfettered - the shaitans, shades, fiends, iblis, and monsters in the Bush government will bring about the armegeddon all our religions, and many prophets have warned humanity about for thousands of years.

"Deliver us from evil."

"...The sooner the mass of American people begin recognizing..." etc. etc.

George W. Bush is not the problem. Dick Cheney is not the problem. David WhatsHisName is not the problem--"vilify" him all you wish, he originates nothing, and sweeping him aside will alter nothing. The Republican Party is the problem, which means that 50% of the American people are the problem.

This is what no one is prepared to understand: the people are the problem. Democracy is the problem. Politics is the problem. If you are serious--and who could fail to be?--about preventing totalitarianism, then you must first prevent democracy, which decays into totalitarianism with a half-life of approximately seventy years. If you would rather--as who would not?--live in a world free from the vicious, devalidating scourge of totalitarianism, then you must immediately stamp out every smallest manifestation of politics like the fatal, wildfire epidemic that it is, because all politics is totalitarian. There is not, and there cannot be, any other kind.

The lesson of the Twentieth Century is the absolute failure and discredit of democracy. No experiment has ever failed more utterly, more comprehensively, more decisively, or with such hideous results. The lesson of the Twentieth Century is that wherever humans are permitted to determine their own destiny, the results will be purely and irreparably ruinous. This much has been scientifically proven at the cost of hundreds of millions of lives and is therefore beyond decent debate. I do not claim to know an alternative, but an alternative is what must be found.

The Republican Party is the problem, which means that 50% of the American people are the problem.

BUZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. Wrong! Remember only about 60 percent of Americans voted. That would make it about 31 percent of Americans being the problem. And oh oh! by the way Bushes approval rating is now at 34 percent just keeps getting closer and closer to his base isn't he?

Of course, "temporary" unchecked power--as the Romans surely discovered in time--bestows the tools for an unscrupulous and willing soul to extend that power indefinitely. There's nothing "temporary" about a state of war defined only by the whims of the administration, with no clear-cut goals, limitations, or expiration date. They've already told us we should expect the so-called "war on terror" to be a war of generations--so whenever we read the words "state of war," we should see "from now on." Sinister as they are in any case, a lot of this administration's machinations look even more ominous in their real context: "from now on."

Check the "Board of Trustees". It includes even our senator/actor, Fred Thompson.

Bush Celebrates Black History Month

There is also a Giant list of Political comics at
H.L.s Comics Features

You're right - 34% Bush & 12% Cheney approval rating and they have roared back. It is truly amazing. Nothing ever seems to stop them.

Steve,

How about giving those of us in the DC area a full days notice on one of your events. (Readings,lectures, ect.) Sometimes it is hard to change plans on a few hours notice.

Thanks.

No doubt, essential components of Cheney's energy policy demanded preemptive strikes ‎and declarations of war against the Middle East for the "oils of war." Unfortunately, their ‎initial plans of attack were put on hold after they realized the serious destruction nuclear ‎weapons would cause to the oil fields that they perceive to be theirs --- or at least have ‎every right to steal. Nevertheless, I suspect Bush and Cheney will attempt to maintain ‎their executive powers far beyond the presidential limitations, laid out in the constitution ‎by initiating nuclear war and implementing martial law. And so far, it looks as though our ‎elected members of the House and Senate have every intention of providing Bush and ‎Cheney all the help they will need to successfully destroy our country.

"Reckless typecasting and tractionless hyperventilation"....

....seems to be exactly what this site is all about.

Just because you call a cat a dog, doesn't make it so.

"Bush has become the epitome of a Roman dictator in the 21st century"
But wait, it is worse than Rome, by god. bla bla bla.

"a deranged anti-democratic team of power-obsessed thugs in Vice President Cheney's office"

NO, I would say hyperventilation is exactly what this is.