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Rich Lowry's Inside Numbers
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National Review editor Rich Lowry shares a "cheat sheet" from GOP insiders:
Eight in the most likely gone category: PA-7, Weldon, OH-18, Ney open, IN-8, Hostettler, CO-7 Beauprez open, AZ-8, Kolbe open, NY-24, Boehlert open, PA-10, Sherwood, CT-4, Shays.Eight in the expect to lose most of these unless something changes: TX-22, DeLay open, NC-11, Taylor (chart notes unfavorable trend in this race), IN-9, Sodrel, IN-2, Chocola (chart notes a favorable trend), FL-16, Foley open, OH-15, Pryce, PA-6, Gerlach, NH-2, Bass (unfavorable trend).
Twenty in the true toss-up category (I'm just citing districts because I'm tired of typing): IA-1, NY-20, WY, WI-8 (favorable trend), WA-8, VA-2, PA-8, NY-26 (favorable trend), NM-1, IL-6, FL-13, CA-50, CA-11, OH-1, ID-1, NY-25, MN-1, CO-5, OH-2, CA-4.
That's 36 seats total. In the first category, unfavorable trends are noted in 7 of the 8 races (AZ-8 is the only exception). In the third category, 13 out of the 30 races have unfavorable trends.
Thanks Rich. His readers must feel rotten.
-- Steve Clemons
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Reader Comments (4) - post a comment
A race that appears to be under the radar is OH-12. This is in Columbus and two suburban counties, and is nestled between OH-18 (Ney's seat) and OH-15 (Pryce's seat). Approximately 2/3 of the voters are in Franklin County, which can be considered Democratic, and the other third is in two suburban counties, which are generally Republican. The anti-corruption feeling which is all over Ohio, and Strickland's long coattails may push this one into the Democratic camp.
Shamansky held this seat from 1980 to 1982, and he self-financed the campaign. His opponent, incumbent Pat Tiberi sent a desperate-sounding mailing out this weekend, and is campaigning like someone in trouble. Polling numbers have been scant, but Shamansky is within shouting distance. If Pryce loses, I think Tiberi has a strong chance of losing as well.
Re your comment "His readers must feel rotten". Why, I certainly hope so. This is an election; judicious, even-handed little pats of encouragement are not due this benighted crew at all at this moment.
Looks like Tiberi held his seat against Shamansky. Too bad, he is a better candidate.
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