A little over year ago after Paul Wolfowitz's unceremonious departure from the World Bank, the newly appointed head of the World Bank, Bob Zoellick, went on a "listening tour" both as a symbolic gesture to the world to repair damaged relations with investors, but also to gather real "intelligence" of sorts on the needs and demands of the institution's global stakeholders.

But listening, as a tactic, also has direct applications for national security and counterterrorism. Last week Sen. Russ Feingold highlighted the critical role for civilians in open source intelligence gathering to fill significant gaps:

The problem is our deficits in information collection, as well as reporting and analysis. By "information," I mean not just intelligence gathered clandestinely, but also information obtained through diplomatic reporting and all the overt channels through which our government learns about the world. Inside and outside the Intelligence Community, our government has failed to coordinate information collection across different departments and agencies...

Appearing before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Michael Leiter, Director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center, specifically noted that "much of the information about the instability that can lead to safe havens or ideological radicalization comes not from covert collection but from open collection, best done by Foreign Service officers." The problem is that it is not in the power of Mr. Leiter, or anyone in the Intelligence Community, to make sure that there are enough Foreign Service officers, in the right places, with the right resources.

I was in Beijing just a little over a week ago. Steve isn't kidding about the smog -- on the bad days, visibility is about 10 blocks. On the very worst day, I couldn't see clearly from one side of Tienanmen Square to the other. That was a Friday, which is important because, according to locals, that is the day of the week on which the clouds are seeded to clear out the pollution. I was told on a clear Friday afternoon that there would be heavy rain at precisely 7:30 and sure enough, the rains came.

A prediction: the big story BEFORE the Olympics start will be athletes complaining about the pollution. Right now, it's not a story because the bureau chiefs and in-country reporters who are there are used to it. After the torch arrives, it'll be all about the events (plus, the government plans to limit driving in the city and shut down local industry). But somewhere in the middle, when athletes and sports reporters arrive in advance of the games, this is going to be a big story.

Here's one more uncorroborated rumor passed along from an architect currently supervising the construction of the CCTV building, pictured above. According to the architect, the building will be the second largest building in the world by square footage to the Pentagon. More interestingly, its construction has single-handedly created a spike in world steel prices.

Can anyone confirm or deny? I'm curious.

-- Scott Paul

China's been out of the game for a few hundred years, but it's back.

The Chinese themselves believe that their collective ascendancy is fragile and fraught with problems -- particularly environmental degradation associated with growth. The smog in Beijing really stings the unconditioned eyeball.

I'm staying at the Beijing Friendship Hotel, originally built for Soviet technocrats. All the buildings are massive -- and I'm now across the street at a Starbucks enjoying free wireless -- but nearly got whacked a couple of times by cars and buses speeding by. There are no crosswalks on this large street -- people and autos sort of fight it out. It's kind of the more modern and deadly version of Pamplona.

As modern as China is in many ways, its consumer orientation is still undeveloped. I have gone through a bit of a nightmare in fighting a battle between Expedia and various hotel and airline operators here. Expedia's interface with flight data from Hainan Airlines is completely fouled up. Nothing is correct. So, I am booked on nonexistent flights around which I made a schedule. All of it is now up in the air -- and Expedia has required about 4 hours phone time to figure out how to refund parts of this that were caused by these problems. Not good. Be careful.

Just had an excellent meeting with one of the chief (talented) US watchers from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and also met separately a group of Chinese readers of The Washington Note. I was impressed with their degree of detailed knowledge on the political nuances that divided Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain. Also, the understanding that observers here in Beijing have between various camps inside the Bush administration was notable. I'd expect that from a high quality expert from CASS -- but the Chinese students and professionals I met were equally impressive.

Reality hit though when I got a 'Google alert' that I was quoted by Trudy Rubin in today's Philadelphia Inquirer. That seems to be one of the newspapers here that is blocked by Chinese internet filters. I have no access to it -- though I can get the New York Times, Washington Post, The Washington Note, Atlantic Monthly, and some others. Just my luck.

-- Steve Clemons

I'm glad Barack Obama's campaign has stated that it is giving up the morphed Obama/Presidential Seal podium sign. I didn't like it.

But Nicole Belle at Crooks and Liars had an excellent retort on presidential seal hubris. See above graphic and the link to her piece.

-- Steve Clemons

About to board the direct flight from Dulles to Beijing. Look forward to catching up with TWN readers there.

But a great friend of mine who works for the State Department in Vienna sent me this clip that will make any travelers, or wannabe globe-trotters, smile.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

Senator Obama put out this statement today on his just announced trips to Europe, Israel and Jordan:

"This trip will be an important opportunity for me to assess the situation in countries that are critical to American national security, and to consult with some of our closest friends and allies about the common challenges we face," said Barack Obama. "Israel is a strong and close friend of the United States, and is confronting grave threats from Gaza to Tehran. Jordan has been a close partner in the peace process and a host of other issues of common concern. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are key anchors of the transatlantic alliance and have contributed to the mission in Afghanistan, and I look forward to discussing how we can strengthen our partnership in the years to come. This will be an important opportunity to have an exchange of views with leaders in these countries about these and other issues that are critical to American national security -- and global security -- in the 21st century."

I'm glad he's going. But let's hope that he focuses more on the problem of a DIVIDED Palestine rather than bringing up the issue of a "divided Jerusalem" again.

And just for the rhetoric spinners, it would be NICE that while talking about the importance of Israeli security and the threats faced by the lonely regional superpower (with wich I concur), he might also address the miserable living conditions of those in Gaza and the West Bank. Some empathy with both sides is more than appropriate -- and is practiced every day by leading Israelis who are debating these regional problems in far broader and more inclusive terms than is happening in the United States.

-- Steve Clemons

Some quick thoughts that I just shared on North Korea nuclear deal-making thus far:

-- Steve Clemons

We're hosting a session at New America Foundation this afternoon with National Economics Correspondent for the Los Angeles Times, Peter Gosselin, and CSPAN's BookTV on the shift of financial risk to individual Americans. Peter's new book, High Wire: The Precarious Financial Lives of American Families, explains how during a quarter century of steady economic growth the consequences of illness, job loss, or separation can devastate the security of a family more than ever before.

Live Video streamed by Ustream

Many think of the past 25 years as a period of prosperity and growth, and rightly so. We've enjoyed high growth, low inflation, and millions of Americans enjoy more material wealth. What isn't accounted for in these statistics is the devastating consequences of falling off the track to prosperity.

-- Sam Sherraden

If I write "net nootrality" the way it should be spelled, my posts pop up on a zillion google alerts -- which produce an avalanche of emails from stakeholders in the debate.

I'm trying to get ready for a China trip so I can't handle an email tsunami this week. But suffice it to say that I've spent some time with players in the Net N standoff from across the spectrum and have some more commiserating and learning to do -- but this is a really intriguing, high stakes policy challenge.

However, at the end of last April, I received this email from some Net N enthusiasts committed to laissez-faire gaming rights:

This is awkward as the Australian American Leadership Dialogue meeting at which I posed a question to Vice President Cheney was off the record -- but it's out there now in the New York Times.

It was a fascinating, little bit scary moment because the Vice President after speaking for quite a while about a lot of tough subjects just went stone silent after I posed a question on North Korea.

I hear that Cheney did look back when he was leaving the stage and did flash me a semi-friendly grin, or at least others thought that was what it was. I'm not so sure.

-- Steve Clemons

Only a few hours ago a fourth rocket to hit Israel since a truce was agreed to with the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip has cast further doubts on the durability of this stopgap measure. That coupled with an increasingly wobbly Olmert, besieged on all fronts by his own Kadima party, Labor, and Likud, feeds a cyclical dynamic that is wearing thin the patience on both sides.

Competing internal actors retain perverse incentives to play spoiler in order to preempt a resolution that leaves them weakened or excluded from power. In the case of the most recent rocket attack, it is the Fatah-aligned Al-Aqsa Martyrs that seems to be playing spoiler to a Hamas-initiated truce. Robert Malley and Hussein Agha had warned against such possibilities earlier this year writing:

The truth is, none of these two-way deals is likely to succeed. In tandem, no two parties are capable enough to deliver; any one party is potent enough to be a spoiler. There can be neither Israeli-Palestinian stability nor a peace accord without Hamas's acquiescence. Intra-Palestinian reconciliation will not last without Israel's unspoken assent and willingness to lift its siege. Any agreement between Hamas and Israel over Abbas's strong objection is hard to imagine.

For any of these dances to go forward, all will have to go forward. Synchronicity is key. Fatah and Hamas will need to reach a new political arrangement, this time not one vigorously opposed by Israel. Hamas and Israel will need to achieve a cease-fire and prisoner exchange, albeit mediated by Abbas. And Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will need to negotiate a political deal with Abbas, who will have to receive a mandate to do so from Hamas.

The current mind-set, in which each side considers dealmaking by the other two to be a mortal threat, could be replaced by one in which all three couplings are viewed as mutually reinforcing. For that, the parties' allies ought to cast aside their dysfunctional, destructive, ideologically driven policies. Instead, they should encourage a choreography that minimizes violence and promotes a serious diplomatic process. Otherwise, no matter how many times President Bush travels to the region, there is no reason to believe that 2008 will offer anything other than the macabre pattern of years past.

Perhaps the vacuum opened with the United States going MIA allowed some durable options to emerge through regional leadership from Ankara and Doha. But despite some recent success on other fronts, the Middle East will continue to command U.S. attention and remain the defining challenge of this (and perhaps future) decade(s).

To examine these prospects and the contours of a durable equilibrium and why these Middle East challenges won't go away, the New America Foundation will be hosting a discussion with American Strategy Program Fellows Ghaith Al-Omari and Daniel Levy -- two of the most prescient observers of the conflict. Joining them will be Aaron Miller, a former U.S. negotiator and important voice on this issue.

For those who cannot attend in person, the discussion will stream live by webcast on this page.

-- Sameer Lalwani

One of my best international politcal pals is head of the Green Party in Germany, Reinhard Buetikofer. He has been an outstanding leader of his party -- and I hear is soon stepping down to run for the European Parliament. Interestingly, another favorite of mine -- Cem Oezdemir who is now a Green Party member of the European Parliament -- is planning to run for the Chairmanship of the Greens. It's a perfect swap.

Today, I'll be having a discussion with Buetikofer live on TWN from 12:15 pm til 1:45 pm on the subject of China and climate change.

-- Steve Clemons

I've just returned from an epic trip in Russia, Central Asia and China to find this -- a tentative plan by Gazprom to build a direct pipeline from Russia to Abkhazia, a breakaway region in Georgia that is currently the major wedge between Russia and Georgia.

What I reported two days ago about the White House asking Congress to remove North Korea from the State Sponsors of Terror list was confirmed a few moments ago by President Bush.

In a Rose Garden statement, President Bush also suspended sanctions on North Korea that are tied to the "Trading with Enemies Act".

This is huge news -- and is a giant step in putting US-North Korea relations on a new and more constructive track. This is a success for the Bush administration -- and more importantly for Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian & Pacfic Affairs Christopher Hill who has been a punching bag for former US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton who has been spitting on Hill's deal-making for the last year.

There are still a lot of questions ranging from the interesting issue of North Korea cooperation with Syria's alleged nuclear facility that was destroyed by Israel and other issues -- but when President Bush gave Colin Powell the positive nod in the first week of April 2003 to proceed with the Six Party Talks, Bush and Cheney ignored Iran's offer of a structure for normalized US-Iran relations the very same week in 2003.

The contrast in circumstances between where America is today with North Korea and where we are with Iran is vital to note. We 'engaged' North Korea and blew it with Iran.

Congrats to Christopher Hill, John Negroponte, Condoleezza Rice, the former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns and his successor William Burns. And for those who want to knock China around, they should know that this entire process was impossible without China's impressive, collaborative diplomacy.

Barack Obama's inclination towards engagement with problematic leaders around the world now is now buttressed by an experience of the George W. Bush administration. Too bad so much of the rest of America's foreign policy portfolio didn't get this same kind of attention.

-- Steve Clemons

The "Media Consortium" via correspondent and former New America Foundation research associate Brian Beutler posted this short clip of three questions posed to Senator Russ Feingold during his recent talk before the New America Foundation.

He addresses FISA and also articulates concerns that an Obama presidency may not walk back the many powers usurped by the Executive Branch during the George W. Bush administration.

It's an important five minutes of video.

-- Steve Clemons

On June 11th, I posted a link to a videologue of McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis walking through Senator McCain's strategy with the public.

Today, the Obama team has released a set of powerpoints that campaign manager David Plouffe used in a "strategy" discussion with the media. I've attached the pdf file here.

One of the most interesting -- and obvious -- graphs shows an "Enthusiasm Gap" between Republicans and Democrats. I prefer to call it a "Sizzle Gap."

Voter enthusiasm among Dems is running at 61% and among Republicans 35% (despite the Gallup poll results which show these two tied. . .at least for today).

So, the obvious question is whether Obama -- in style and in policy substance -- will remain bold and dramatic, or instead make himself more bland to appeal to the center. And what will McCain do to upgrade his sizzle?

-- Steve Clemons

I check in with the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll frequently and think it has been consistently on target. Today, Gallup has Obama and McCain tied at 45% each.

But four days ago, Newsweek had a poll out showing Obama 15 points ahead. Those on TWN who want to help me (and others) understand the basis of this gap would be most appreciated.

I see some close to Obama thinking that he's got some real distance now but that the race will have its ups and downs, zigs and zags. But if Gallup is right, this is surprisingly neck and neck -- even with the American middle class feeling squeezed from so my directions simultaneously.

-- Steve Clemons

Today at 12:15 pm EST, I'll be having a discussion with former John Edwards campaign Senior Economic Policy Adviser Leo Hindery and ISI Group financial markets expert Tom Gallagher. We will be discussing high oil prices, declining home values, and what all of this means for the American middle class.

You are welcome to watch live here at The Washington Note.

Here is a link to the video and audio of the event that was streamed live.

-- Steve Clemons

(Asst. Secretary of State for East Asia Christopher Hill)

Tonight, The Washington Note confirmed that the Bush administration will "ask Congress" to de-list North Korea from America's "terrorist watch list." This request will be made on Thursday -- if there are no last minute, unexpected interventions.

Rumors have been kicking around that this might be happening, but no administration officials would confirm until today that this was finally decided.

During the day today, I spoke with officials from the State Department, the CIA, the Department of Defense, President Bush's staff, and the Office of the Vice President -- and several sources from these departments confirmed that the administration was moving forward on formally asking Congress to remove North Korea from the controversial watch list -- which is seen as a key confidence building step by North Korea and China in moving towards North Korea's eventual return to the nuclear non-proliferation club.

Sources also tell TWN that while the Bush administration will take this step Thursday, Vice President Cheney's office was a dissenting voice in the administration's internal discussions.

While North Korea's behavior continues to be erratic and often troubling, the Bush administration's decision will be considered a major victory for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Deputy Secretary John Negroponte, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and others -- but the real winner is Department of State Asst. Secretary for East Asia Affairs Christopher Hill -- who has been under almost constant assault from John Bolton and others opposed to deal-making with North Korea.

More on the implications tomorrow.

-- Steve Clemons

Sam Sherraden is a Program Associate with the New America Foundation's Economic Growth Program and writes for Global Economic Snapshot.

As my cab approached Dulles Airport last week from my Washington home 45 minutes away, I looked up and was astonished to see the meter at only 45 dollars. After the driver paid for gas on a 60 mile ride (the 30 mile drive to the airport and 30 mile drive back to the district where he could get another fare), costs of vehicle maintenance, and one and half hours of time, I couldn't believe he turned much of a profit. I leaned forward and asked him a question to that effect. "It's not just gas, man!" he replied. "Milk and all those things I feed my kids. They are ALL more expensive."

Oil prices peaked last weak at just under $140 a barrel and gas prices nationwide have risen above $4 per barrel. Middle income Americans and small business are struggling to find ways around higher food and energy prices. The Wall Street Journal offered some dismal advice last week on how small business can survive with higher prices by rerouting deliveries to save fuel, using energy efficient light bulbs, and holding meetings online instead of paying for airfare. But when compared the rising cost of inputs for business and families, these savings are limited in scope and impact. The cab driver and many other folks I've spoken with are not feeling any relief.

Nor does it appear relief is on the horizon. High prices of energy and food coincide with a deflating housing bubble and sinking consumer confidence. Much of the optimism about the economy has been torn apart and replaced by anxiety. The stimulus checks appear to have provided a bump to consumption, but it is unclear that once that shot in the arm wears off the economy will be on a path to recovery. Trouble in financial markets is spilling into the real economy with more financial institutions on loose footing and access to credit continually difficult. The Fed has aggressively cut interest rates, but this erodes the dollar, causes inflation, and forces international investors to look toward the euro. Put simply, the outlook for the remainder of 2008 looks grim.

To discuss these issues and a set of policy solutions to reorient the economy during the next administration, we booked two events at the New America Foundation this week.

On Wednesday, June 25 Leo Hindery, former Senior Economic Advisor to John Edwards and current unofficial advisor to Barack Obama, and Tom Gallagher, Senior Managing Director of International Strategy and Investment Group, Inc., will speak about structural changes we need to strengthen the economy.

On Friday, June 27 Los Angeles Times National Economics Correspondent Peter Gosselin will speak about his new book, High Wire: The Precarious Financial Lives of American Families.

-- Sam Sherraden