Rumors are swirling that Tim Pawlenty is furious - that he was on the edge of McCain announcing he was the GOP VP running mate - but that at the last moment, that course was rejected in favor of a person McCain met once, six months ago, and did not interview again.

Huckabee is not pleased that he wasn't even vetted - and he's letting his followers know.

But it may be that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin wasn't vetted either!

How did Palin get the job?

This piece by Tristan Snell at Open Left is worth taking a look at:

Who chose Palin?

Well, it certainly wasn't John McCain.

McCain only met Palin once, six months ago. Unlike every other major party VP nominee in recent memory, Palin did not meet McCain for a final interview before her selection.

A few weeks ago, she wasn't in the running at all. The scandals and unorthodoxies involving Palin -- she flip-flopped on the Bridge to Nowhere and even raised sales taxes on her small town to pay for an overpriced boondoggle -- show that the McCain campaign didn't vet her.

The McCains and Palins looked visibly awkward together, not even speaking as they went their separate ways on a brief shopping trip in Ohio yesterday.

McCain is on record as saying he wanted a running mate with whom he had a strong personal relationship -- and who was ready to be president.

This was clearly not his pick. So again: Who chose Palin?

Was it Dick Cheney? Or Karl Rove? Or maybe James Dobson?

Read the rest here.

-- Steve Clemons

I've been participating in an interesting daily blogger poll organized by Tom Madigan at National Journal.

Today, he reports that right of center bloggers think Sarah Palin is a big plus for the McCain ticket. Left of Center bloggers are not convinced, but it is ultimately what the right (and the undeclared and independent) thinks of Palin that is going to matter.

For the record, I had TWN listed as right of center for the Democratic Convention -- and as left of center for the Republican Convention.

-- Steve Clemons

Nader Mousavizadeh, former special assistant to and speechwriter for UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and Goldman Sachs executive, just sent over his oped, "How to Navigate the New Global Archipelago," which appeared in the Times of London on Friday, John McCain's birthday.

Mousavizadeh's excellent analytical piece echoes a number of the themes I raised in this TWN essay on the Kosovo and broader geostrategic dimensions of the Georgia-Russia conflict.

Essentially, Mousavizadeh advises Obama to resist the temptation to offer McCain-lite responses to high stakes global crises and flash points. He is absolutely right.

I'll have to add him to my growing list of those who should be high level picks for key positions in an Obama administration. I'd add him to a McCain list as well -- but unfortunately -- enlightened thinking on global affairs is not something that easily transfers politically at this point in our history.

Read the entire piece, but I am enthusiastically compelled to provide a big chunk of this progressive/realist essay:

As Russia decides where to draw its new boundary with Georgia a reckoning will be due - among the people of Georgia living amid the wreckage of a failed gamble, and among their Western allies suddenly confronted with diplomatic impotence. But for Barack Obama, a different kind of reckoning is taking place: what happens when the formidable political instincts of the probable next US president meet the limits of his experience in national security.

From everything he has said and written, it is evident that Mr Obama, uniquely among leading US politicians, understands the new contours of global affairs - that the world won't be divided into neat categories of democracies versus autocracies, nor will it converge toward a Western model.

He knows instead, that a world of parts is emerging - of states drifting farther away from each other into a global archipelago of interests and values; and that in an archipelago world, appeals to freedom, democracy and human rights must compete with aims of stability, resource security and the projection of national power.

And yet, as the Georgian conflict spirals into a global crisis, Mr Obama finds himself on the back foot. Initially hesitant in his response to Vladimir Putin's expedition in South Ossetia, he has had to ratchet up his rhetoric in response to John McCain's for-us-or-against-us stance.

This is, as Obama the politician would know, a loser's game, even if Obama the statesman is still finding his way. Trying to outmuscle Mr McCain will invite only contempt among his foes and bewilderment among the millions of his supporters yearning for a different kind of US engagement with the world.

Georgia is only the most recent augury of a new era of zero-sum diplomacy for which the West is ill-prepared. The West's surprise at Russia's response was disconcerting enough. More troubling was the outdated assortment of threats with which it has tried to sound tough. Among the suggestions was a boycott of the 2014 Winter Olympics hosted by Russia, denying Russia membership of the World Trade Organisation and excluding it from G8 meetings. A common thread links all three: they are as difficult for the West to achieve as they are unlikely to alter Russia's behaviour.

Obtaining an Olympic boycott six years after the crisis in Georgia will be extremely challenging. Barring access to the WTO just after the collapse of the Doha talks may be less of a sanction than it sounds.

The G8 threat is even less convincing, although it is telling evidence of a 20th-century mindset that is oblivious to international changes. Before Georgia it would have been hard to find anyone seriously arguing for the importance of G8 meetings (Canada and Italy are members; China is not); much less that being denied entrance could be construed as leverage with a great power.

Far more important to the future of international diplomacy was a little-noticed meeting in Yekaterinburg, Russia, last May. There, for the first time, foreign ministers from the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) met to advance their common agenda in a world hitherto defined by Western rules. The BRICs are expected to overtake the combined GDP of the G7 by 2035, and they laid down a marker that they will not wait for reform of the post-Second World War institutions to be heard.

Does this mean that China or India will take Russia's side against the West? Not necessarily, but it does suggest a more complex interplay of interests in future. Strategic leverage will have to be earned - crisis by crisis, interest by interest.

I am going to have to ask Mousavizadeh to guest blog a piece for TWN.

-- Steve Clemons

In part, it means something I blogged yesterday was wrong. It happens now and then.

Yesterday, I wrote a piece here at TWN that tried to share with readers how I got some insights into the Joe Biden VP selection story a bit earlier than the mainstream. I also shared a bit how friends of mine and I worked on learning that Mitt Romney had been told by McCain that he would not be the nominee.

In the Biden case, I preferred his selection over Senator Evan Bayh, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. I could have lived with the other options, but Biden I thought would fill a significant gap in the Obama portfolio.

But the jobs I tend to care about most on a President's team are not ones that the public votes for. In a few of the cases, the U.S. Senate offers "advise and consent" to the President by considering nominations and voting on confirmations. But this role is limited -- which is fine with me for the most part.

But in positions like National Security Advisor, or NSC Middle East Advisor, or National Economic Advisor to the President, among other positions that lie directly in the Executive Office of the President, the President has a free hand. Civil society, including bloggers, social and political commentators, or even well connected gossips, can sometimes shape the environment in which the president chooses his or her personal team. They can offer a tilt. I try and do that now and then -- sometimes not well -- because I care very much that the U.S. have the best team possible advising a President on how to restore America's national security position to a healthy, sensible, credible, interest-advancing posture.

The National Security Advisor job is one of the key ones I think about in an Obama or McCain administration. At this point -- still months from the election -- I think that four of the frontrunners for that are UT Austin Dean James Steinberg, Brookings Senior Fellow and Obama campaign Senior Foreign Policy Adviser Susan Rice, attorney and Obama campaign senior national security advisor Gregory Craig, and former Washington Institute on Near East Policy staff member and Clinton Middle East envoy Dennis Ross.

Of the four, if these four remain the options as the election develops, I prefer Steinberg, Rice, and Gregory Craig more than Dennis Ross. Ross has many talents, but I fear that his own approach to the Middle East mess we have today would look a lot like Condoleezza Rice's approach -- a lot of effort but zero results, a failure to see power and realities in the region as they are rather than how we'd prefer them to be.

I have seen Susan Rice and Gregory Craig speak recently -- both in programs of the New America Foundation -- and they were outstanding. Rice is serious, informed, and a structured thinker with vision. She has an appreciation for 21st century threats of climate change refugees, transnational health problems, and failing state and governance realities in Africa that stands out above most. Former State Department Policy Planning Staff Director Gregory Craig gave a talk recently which I'll share once I get the transcript that I thought was absolutely brilliant and helped clarify Barack Obama's foreign policy approach much more clearly than I have heard in some time.

But I'm also a big fan of James Steinberg. Yesterday, I wrote that some house repairs, painting, and tree removal that Steinberg was doing in Austin might just signal his decision to get more active with the campaign and to prepare for much hard work that will be required of an Obama national security team immediately after a November election.

Steinberg recently went with Barack Obama on the Middle East portion of his recent international trip.

The kind of house stuff I wrote about was pretty esoteric as one TWN reader called it -- but it gave me an on-ramp to remark again on my own preference that Steinberg -- who was the first senior level member of the Democratic Party's "strategic class" to call for withdrawing from Iraq -- be among the highest levels of those considered by Senator and perhaps President Obama as National Security Advisor or in some other very senior position.

But some of the details that came to me about Steinberg's house work from his friends were inaccurate.

Yesterday, I wrote:

James B. Steinberg -- former Deputy National Security Adviser to President Clinton, former Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Division Czar, and UT Austin LBJ School Dean -- is now removing a bunch of old oak trees that were destroyed in a storm a few years ago and is painting his house.

Neighbors report that he hasn't done much to his place or yard in the several years he has lived there, and now all of a sudden -- his place is getting a major face-lift.

Turns out that while all these things happened, the timing is wrong as well as the type of tree was inaccurate. Other sources familiar with Steinberg's home improvements report to me:

Jim Steinberg's house was painted in February-March. The storm was in May 2008. The only tree removed was the one that had fallen on the roof of the house and smashed the chimney, and there are no oak trees on the property.

Record corrected.

But the bottom line is that people like myself are hungry for excellence again in the foreign policy/national security team advising the holder of the highest office in this land.

I am distressed that I see patterns similar to the dysfunctional divide between pragmatic realists and militant idealists in the George W. Bush administration being replicated in the McCain for President campaign. There are some good folks in McCain land. I hesitate to mention their names in fear that they will go on some kind of purge list that Bill Kristol and Robert Kagan keep in their locked desk drawer.

But around Obama, while I don't prefer all of those who advise him on national security, the overall team thinks in more disciplined terms and in bolder, much needed ways than what I am seeing unfold on the McCain side.

James Steinberg is not a household name and doesn't want to be. For the record, he has made it clear to me he doesn't like it much when I mention him on the blog -- but the fact is that the clarity of his thinking stands out and is important to use as a benchmark when discussing the potential practitioners who will shape tomorrow's policies. What I write here about Steinberg will not likely affect one way or another his chances of taking the helm of the National Security Council.

A few have told me that they look at Steinberg as someone who shapes his policy positions to adapt to political currents he is trying to surf. I very much disagree.

Steinberg has the experience, political acumen, and vision to help the nation's national security bureaucracy and its president to move out of the destructive path where inertia and incrementalism are taking the nation. I have heard Steinberg many times in off the record conferences outline the steps America needed to take to jump into a different set of institutional relationships.

Indeed, my own thinking about what America needs to do to develop a new global social contract with other international stakeholders has most been influenced by the private commentary of James Steinberg as well as the writing of G. John Ikenberry as well as a handful of other thinkers. We need Steinberg-types who have been through the post-Cold War currents and know that we need new frameworks for managing America's engagement in interests in the world.

Steinberg and others like him could be the next era's Dean Acheson -- and that is why I believe that writing about those Obama chooses to surround himself with (McCain too) is a vital role of bloggers and political and policy analysts. We need to find the shapers of America's and the world's "next" institutions.

Thus, while I was able to sort through esoteric data and see that Obama was going to select Biden and McCain not take on Romney, my assessment about James Steinberg and some others who are around Obama should not be tied to esoteric data about home chores. I care less about the implications of what they are doing to their own homes than what they could to fix up America.

Steinberg, Rice, and Gregory Craig look better to me every day, particularly in contrast to some that John McCain has brought into and expelled from his circle -- and I hope that the Obama national security team expands to consider other excellent talents like James Dobbins, R. Nicholas Burns, Wendy Sherman, Antony Blinken, Derek Chollet, Kurt Campbell, Flynt Leverett, Michele Flournoy, Joe Cirincione, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Robert Malley (who Obama should reacquire) and others like them.

There are so many others to mention who are also superb -- Denis McDonough, Dan Shapiro, Gayle Smith, Samantha Power. . .but they are already high on the Obama list.

More on them later -- but probably won't be giving updates on whether Flynt Leverett has painted his house or not.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

John McCain's decision to choose Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to run with him on the GOP ticket can be about many things -- wanting to bring in someone genuinely from the outside, wanting to embrace the reality that women can serve in all capacities and in all levels of government and the military, wanting to lure part of the female vote that might have supported Hillary Rodham Clinton towards John McCain.

But the national-security dripping "Country First" sloganeering that McCain has been doing just does not fit with Sara Palin.

This was a "Country Last" decision. If McCain had something happen to him, I just don't know what the country would do.

We would be faced with a scary situation in which many major institutions in our nation -- and you probably know at least part of what I'm talking about -- might not support her ascension to the presidency. We have to consider the implications of that.

I can't prove that the government would divide if she were to move from VP to the presidency, but I know that there would be enormous tension. I think we'd see mass resignations.

Sarah Palin is not Hillary Rodham Clinton. She is not Condoleezza Rice. She isn't Kathleen Sibelius or Olympia Snowe or Janet Napolitano. She's not Susan Eisenhower or Dianne Feinstein.

Alaskans typically devour their governors. They usually serve a single term before the tectonics of state politics undermine their state leader. But she hasn't even served two years as governor.

What does she think about Cuba? Does she know the difference between America's relations with Brazil and Venezuela? Does she know what a balancing act we are walking in Asia between Japan, Taiwan, China, South Korea, North Korea, Russia and more? Does she know anything about nuclear weapons and our defense posture?

What books has she read? Who are her inspirations as thought leaders? Has she written any serious articles or published anything we might see to get a sense of who she is?

What would she do with Iran? Can she name even five nations on the continent of Africa?

She better study up. Because as she begins to have her national coming out -- forget the reporters. . .regular people are going to kick her tires about this stuff.

And no one I know thinks she is ready for a serious challenge like this -- and certainly not ready to manage the crises that might come if she tripped into the presidency.

-- Steve Clemons

Jake Colvin, a fellow blogger over at The Havana Note, captured this pic at the BIG TENT at the Democratic National Convention.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz has apparently finally signed on to help Dem candidate Joe Garcia challenge one of her other monomaniacal anti-Cuba pals, Republican Mario Diaz-Balart. I think Garcia is a big step forward on US-Cuba policy and for better representation for Miami citizens.

But she still is holding out in opposing her close friend, the anti-Cuba terrorist-celebrating Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

-- Steve Clemons

This just in from Open Left's Matt Stoller -- the "hot beef sundae" in Lincoln, Nebraska.

-- Steve Clemons

Heavily armed police teams in groups of 20 or 30 are raiding private homes in St. Paul. According to one woman who spoke to FireDogLake's Lindsay Beyerstein, asking to see a warrant gets one immediately "detained."

Jane Hamsher and Glenn Greenwald dropped in on a raided St. Paul home shortly after the cops descended.

This is not the Republican Party my family -- dispersed around Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas -- supported. This has become an Orwellian Big Brother party.

Spying, illegal search and seizure, the indiscriminate suspension of personal rights and civil liberties -- this is what the Republicans always feared that the Dems would do in building ever larger governments whose power would become unmanageable and unstoppable.

But the Republicans have built and animated the party that they once feared and used to rail against.

I'll have to see if I get detained for the stuff I write here. I know I won't actually -- but the high fear tilt is clearly moving in an even worse direction.

-- Steve Clemons

I've known Pat Buchanan for a long time, from a comfortable arm's lenth - met him first in 1987.

His comments in this clip are an important benchmark of Obama's ability to reach beyond lines that seemed impenetrable.

-- Steve Clemons

(Obama foreign policy team members Ben Rhodes, Denis McDonough, and UT Austin LBJ School Dean Jim Steinberg arriving in Amman, Jordan 21 July 21. 2008)

To some degree, I could tell in the upbeat voices of Joe Biden staffers I was calling frequently a week and a half ago -- and in the day and a half long/cut short family friendly trip that Senate Foreign Relations Commitee Antony Blinken made to Hawaii at Biden's encouragement before turning around and racing home without tan -- that Biden was going to be announced as Obama's running mate.

I still chuckle at the comment from Blinken that I ought not to read anything into his quick return.

I had other indications too. But watching what key staffers are doing tells a lot.

One senior level Republican friend told me for instance that John McCain called Mitt Romney Thursday morning this past week. My friend did not know whether McCain was calling to say "You're it!" or "You were it -- but you aren't anymore!" or "You aren't it and never were!"

So, we tracked down the people closest to Mitt Romney. I can't go into details as it gets into personal lives, but we knew for certain that none of his closest aides were making any plans to move with Romney to meet up with McCain. So, we knew then that McCain's choice was not the former Massachusetts Governor -- who, like John McCain, used to be for a lot of cool things before he was against them.

Like much of the public, I thought that McCain was then going to go with Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. I didn't quite agree with a thoughtful Dem writer I know that "even though Pawlenty cut off his mullet, he's still a guy who had a mullet." Pawlenty had some strengths that could have impressed voters -- so too Romney. In fact, many Republican realists were big Romney supporters, and McCain could have helped seal a serious rift in the national security community by taking on Romney.

On another front, senior McCain aides often laughed themselves silly about how hard Florida Governor Charlie Christ was supplicating before McCain and doing everything he possibly could to get the VP nod -- and one could tell in the tone of their voices that McCain would simply never select Christ.

I always thought from a Machiavellian/almost Rovian point of view that the right choices for McCain to build out his campaign would have either been Mike Huckabee or Senator Sam Brownback. Huckabee is an incredible chameleon. Many of my most liberal friends -- gays, enviros, and peace activists -- were moved by Huckabee at one time or another. They thought he was folksy and had overcome many personal challenges -- a theme that would have helped balance Biden.

And then of course, Huckabee was loved by social conservatives and evangelicals -- which have been the backbone of amazing voter turnout machines in many past national elections.

But, McCain in a surprise move settled on Sarah Palin. I'm glad that a woman is on one of the tickets -- but clearly Governor Palin is the wrong one.

But more importantly, James B. Steinberg -- former Deputy National Security Adviser to President Clinton, former Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Division Czar, and UT Austin LBJ School Dean -- is now removing a bunch of old oak trees that were destroyed in a storm a few years ago and is painting his house.

Neighbors report that he hasn't done much to his place or yard in the several years he has lived there, and now all of a sudden -- his place is getting a major face-lift.

My hunch suggests that Jim Steinberg, a solid choice to possibly serve as Barack Obama's national security adviser in the White House, is about to go on the road.

I know I'm going to get an email from him telling to "stop it." But Steinberg is great -- and we are watching for signs that he's going to move to be one of the key co-helmspeople of Obama's national security/foreign policy machine in the next few months.

Why else would someone paint his house in the Texan hot August heat?

-- Steve Clemons

For More: See Update above.

(Iraq President Jalal Talabani walks with his China President Hu Jintao)

George W. Bush, Richard Cheney, and presidential hopeful John McCain (as well as his new internationally ignorant but charming vice presidential running mate) have been promulgating the need to stay in Iraq to protect American interests.

Well. . .it seems we are also serving China's interests. Some might say, "of course we are -- given that China finances the largest share of America's debt-burdened economy."

China National Petroleum and Iraq have just signed the first major oil deal between the occupied-by-America nation and a foreign oil company. The deal is valued up to $3 billion (or 21 billion Chinese yuan...better start learning about those yuan).

A prominent international observer sent me this note this morning:

The Bush administration is not even good at imperialism.

Bush sacrifices American money and military lives to prop up a government allied with Iran in the hope of getting a few military bases and some oil contracts for its friends.

Meanwhile the Maliki government steals them blind, gives the first oil contracts to China, and tells Washington to forget about those military bases.

Oh, but thanks for taking care of the Baathists and the Sunnis for us!

-- Steve Clemons

What was that TV show where Geena Davis was an unlikely female VP is thrust into the presidency after the tough national hero president she served under passed away while in office? That's right: Commander in Chief.

Well, life may be following fiction (again) -- without the passing away part. . .

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is going to be the one to debate Joe Biden in the VP debate. It will be a competition in folksiness.

This was a shrewd move by McCain. He had a lot of other options that were low sizzle -- but this choice, while perplexing, still makes a lot of sense.

This from Timothy Egan:

She hunts! She fishes! She eats moose burgers! She can gut a salmon as well as dispatch an incumbent governor! She's a rural mother of five who clings to guns and religion -- exuberantly!

In choosing as his running mate Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, two years removed from her only other political job as a small-town mayor, John McCain has certainly offered up a giant-killer -- "Sarah Barracuda," as she's known in the Last Frontier State.

Palin, who has more than a passing resemblance to Tina Fey, took on the kleptocracy of Alaska's Republican politics and won.

First, she ousted hated incumbent Frank Murkowski in a primary two years ago, and then promptly cleaned up his mess in Juneau, even selling his private jet on e-bay. Second, she rejected the "bridge to nowhere," the famous earmark for a span from Ketchikan to an island of 50 people -- further angering the politicians-for-life who have run Alaska for half as long as it's been in the union.

Like in the case of Obama, there was no perfect VP running mate for John McCain. But as I have suggested before -- McCain needed an out-of-the-box running mate to motivate voters. Huckabee, Powell, Condi Rice, and even Joe Lieberman would have been interesting choices -- though Lieberman would have motivated a lot of voters to organize even more strongly on behalf of Obama.

Palin is an out-of-the-box choice and will draw a good number of female votes. It's as much sizzle as McCain could generate on his 72nd birthday today -- and Palin is a bold choice (though what about that whoppingly big experience deficit????)

One problem though is that in the Dem VP contest, the public helped vet the final three or four candidates, but the public played no role in the GOP selection. There was huge interest in the nation in whether it would be Biden, Bayh, Kaine, Sibelius, or another candidate. Obama reaped the benefits of learning much more via public discussion about their reaction to Bayh, Biden, et. al. from the churning on the net -- before his choice was finally announced.

McCain did no such thing. And thus, it will be interesting to see whether something new and previously unknown appears about this Alaska governor who hunts, fishes, and who cracked down on corruption in Alaska during the tenure of Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski's father.

-- Steve Clemons

Greetings friends. I have much to report and comment on regarding the spectacular Democratic National Convention in Denver. I couldn't do the who's doing what to whom style blogging in Denver; I may do that in Minneapolis/St. Paul -- but was way overbooked in the mile high city.

I'm about to board a plane to Boston where I will be attending the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association -- and will write some posts and share some colorful vignettes that I write up on the plane.

-- Steve Clemons

Free video streaming by Ustream

Watch with us live today from 9:00 am - 12:00 noon mountain time, which is 11:00 am - 2:00 pm EST.

And I'm pleased to report that today is my 46th birthday.

-- Steve Clemons

Wednesday morning, August 27, between 11 am and 1:30 pm EST or 9 am and 11:30 am mountain time, I'll be chairing a New America Foundation/Middle East Task Force event in Denver at the Colorado History Museum.

The keynotes are Senator JOHN KERRY (D-MA), Obama National Security Adviser GREG CRAIG, Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School Dean ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER, former Congressman and Obama Adviser MEL LEVINE, former German Foreign Minister JOSCHKA FISCHER, and Aspen Institute President (and former CNN Chairman and CEO and TIME Managing Editor) Walter Isaacson.

Our panel will be former Israeli negotiator and New America Foundation Senior Fellow DANIEL LEVY, former Senate Foreign Relations Committee senior staff member and Stonebridge International Senior Adviser JANICE O'CONNOLL, International Crisis Group Middle East and North Africa Program Director and former Senior Adviser for the Middle East to President Clinton ROBERT MALLEY, Arab American Institute President JAMES ZOGBY, and New Yorker Washington correspondent and New America Foundation President STEVE COLL.

I will be chairing and moderating the meeting. Please join us in Denver -- or watch on line.

-- Steve Clemons

Tonight is the first night I've been able to see any of the Democratic convention. First things first: I really didn't like the video tribute to Hillary Clinton that was aired tonight. It was all about Hillary Clinton, the woman candidate -- which does Hillary Clinton, the brilliant policymaker and effective advocate, a great disservice. With due respect to the filmmakers and those who were legitimately moved by it (there are surely many), if the video had a tagline, it might read, "pretty good, for a girl." It's at odds with my feminist instincts and doesn't appeal as strongly as it could to my admiration for Senator Clinton.

I had two immediate reactions to Clinton's speech. First, purely from the perspective of speechcraft and delivery, I've never seen her deliver a better one. Second, she said very few positive things about Barack Obama or his candidacy. She talked at great lengths about the need to support Obama given the state of the country, the challenges we face, the alternative of John McCain, and the importance of Democratic Party unity. But aside from one line of praise for the grassroots oriented, bottom-up nature of Obama's campaign, she had precious little to say about the appeal of the candidate himself.

But let's remember -- Clinton said precious little about the rationale behind her own candidacy until sometime early this year. Indeed, a chief weakness of her campaign may have been that her rhetoric focused so much on policy battles and not enough (and not early enough) on why she was the most qualified of 300 million people to lead.

So no one should fault Clinton for failing to give Obama the plaudits that she never gave herself. Clinton is a Democratic partisan, for better or for worse. Her rhetoric has always been focused on winning political battles, not on the unique gifts of any individual political candidate. In that light, hers was a gracious and unifying speech -- at least within the Democratic Party. It's unfair to think, as I instinctively did, that she might talk at length Barack Obama or Joe Biden and their virtues. She's not about to change her stripes. If there are others that had the same instinct, I hope they come around.

If any of this seems nonsensical, you can chalk it up to the first wave of law school homework. And by the way, at this moment, I'm easily more afraid of seeing my writing style deteriorate into legalese and lifeless drivel than I am of not making sense.

--Scott Paul

Note: Clinton's call for unity on access to healthcare for everyone was important. Given her disagreements with Obama on that issue, standing with him on it now will give some very important constituencies a kind of symbolic permission to vote for him. That was both big and selfless.

More soon. Off to meet some journalists interested in more on Joe Biden.

I'm somewhat surprised that I've become a key source on Senator Biden given his long tenure in the Senate. He's currently fourth in longevity in terms of years served in the US Senate but only 44th out of 100 in age.

But I confirmed that he is now 100th out of 100 in terms of personal wealth in the Senate (i.e., he is worried about paying those bills like many Americans). He was 99th out of 100 in 2005 but slipped a notch since.

Check out CNN's American Morning tomorrow for some of my views about what Jill Biden will mean and might do for the country.

-- Steve Clemons

Greetings folks. Apologies for the thin reporting. I have been deeply embedded in the heart and major arteries of the Democratic National Convention and have been run ragged.

James Glenos -- above -- has been a real pal here at the CNN Grill which has been great enough to keep me around as a semi-regular political commentator for CNN proper and CNN.com.

I'll be on CNN's American Morning tomorrow morning in a segment profiling Jill Biden.

But Glenos, who is an intern here for the Convention and is a student at Elon University in North Carolina, has a great blog -- he's got a fresh approach -- and the enthusiasm of the interns here is great to see.

Check out his blog.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper hosts a reception at his brewery in downtown Denver Monday night after the first day of the Democratic Convention.

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper is a fitting host for the Democratic National Convention not only because of position but because of his identity as an independent, outsider/long-shot candidate who began with a message of "Change" and won a surprising victory when he ran for the office 2003.

As a political neophyte with a limited budget, Hickenlooper needed an ad campaign that would break the traditional mold of forgettable, mainstream political ads with John Williams-like music that crescendoes against the steady stream of American flags and glib, warrantless claims boosting or attacking a candidate's record.

Hickenlooper hired Bill Hillsman -- a media consultant who had run successful ad campaigns for Sen. Paul Wellstone, Gov. Jesse Ventura, and Green Party Presidential Candidate Ralph Nader (successful at least in impacting the outcome of the election). They ended producing a well-timed and humerous ad titled "Change."

Like the famous ads of the 2000 Presidential election camaign "Priceless" and "When I Grow Up", Hillman's ads were modeled on commercial advertising and very entertaining while still selling the candidate's core message. As a result, these ads memorability and free media generated an echo most other political ads rarely receive, allowing shoestring capaigns to punch above their weight and successfully compete against better financed campaigns with bigger ad buys.

Hillsman has been a relative outsider in the political advertising world, in part by his choosing and selectivity in working for candidates and in part because he's been dismissed or sidelined by the East Coast politial/campaign elite. But the ideas he pioneered seem to have infiltrated the Obama campaign as it took viral media to the next level in the primary season -- in part enabled by the demographics of their audience, the rise of the netroots community, and the support of celebrities like will.i.am whose inherent commercial appeal led to successful ventures like the "Yes We Can" video.

But my guess is that those ads don't seem to resonate with mainstream America the same degree as the Wellstone, Ventura, and Hickenlooper ad campaigns, which were credited with winning independents and tipping elections. In what is turning out to be a closer election than many had expected, to win over mountain state households as this convention's selection of location was ostensibly set up to do, Barrack Obama would be wise to study the folksy mannerisms of Mayor Hickenlooper and bring on board the brains of Hillsman, who Slate once dubbed "the greatest political adman." (Most of Hillsman's ads can be viewed either here or here).

-- Sameer Lalwani

Joe Biden's selection as Vice President doubles the chances that Senator Chuck Hagel will be selected as Barack Obama's Secretary of State, which this writer considers positively.

Joe Biden was a key partner with many NGOs and this blog in stopping John Bolton's confirmation as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

When President Bush essentially threw the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group into the trash, Joe Biden embraced it and held numerous Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings to make sure that the core elements of the Study Group report were positioned well for public attention.

Biden voted against the Kyl-Lieberman IRGC amendment that would have provided another "Iraq War Resolution-like" loophole for Iran.

After President Bush's provocative State of the Union and post-Iraq Study Group "Statement to the Nation" speeches in 2007, in which both the Wall Street Journal and I thought Bush was telegraphing that he had given permission for covert actions against Iran, the next morning, Biden pounded on Condoleezza Rice and said "the President has no authorization to invade or conduct covert operations against Iran."

Good stuff -- and it belongs in the Biden brief.

-- Steve Clemons

The Liberal Lion Returns -- Senator Kennedy, who turbo-charged Sen. Obama's bid for the Democratic nomination with his endorsement in January, has been out of the public spotlight with a malignant brain tumor, is reportedly scheduled to speak on the opening night of the Democratic convention. For Massachusetts delegates and beyond, it might rank with Paul Pierce's comeback in Game 1.

The Loquacious Lion's Past -- Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate Joe Biden not only overcame innumerable struggles over the course of his life, the man who is now known to be be quite verbose, leading to the occassional political gaffe, has come a long way since his youth. From the Irish Times:

Until his late teens, he suffered from a stutter so severe that he was excused from public speaking in school but, quoting Yeats and Emerson in front of the mirror for hours on end, he overcame it to become one of the most loquacious figures in American public life today.

His addition to the ticket might also help with American Jewish voters

Families Feud Again -- The Obama and Clinton camps are warring again. Speaking assignments for Bill are part of the tension.

And McCain is proactively capitalizing on this wedge with ads like this one. It goes:

"I'm a proud Hillary Clinton Democrat," says Debra Bartoshevich.

"Now in a first for me, I'm supporting a Republican," she says, replacing the Clinton sign she's holding with a McCain sign. "I respect his maverick and independent streak. He's the one with the experience and judgment."

"A lot of Democrats will vote McCain," she concludes. "It's OK, really."

Democrats Lament Georgia's Plight -- Yesterday at a National Democratic Institute Reception for Global Leaders, DNC Chairman Howard Dean and Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi both addressed the reception of some 500 international audience and made particular gestures to the Georgian delegation expressing their sympathy and support for their democratic aspirations, but pledging no material support other than investigative delegations and hearings. I'm sure the Georgians thought their words hollow but it was still the right move.

-- Sameer Lalwani

DENVER -- Despite optimistic forecasts with Ken Pollack and Michael O'Hanlon in their latest Foreign Affairs piece, Stephen Biddle seems to be parting ways and concluding that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government has no intention of folding in the Sunni Awakening Councils into the Iraqi military. Yesterday's LA Times reports:

Amid fears that the Sunnis' treatment could rekindle Iraq's insurgency, the Americans are caught between their wish to support the fighters and their stronger ties to Maliki's government, which has challenged the Sunni paramilitaries in recent months as it grows increasingly confident about its fledgling army.

"We want to have our cake and eat it too, support Maliki and the Sons of Iraq. . . . Maliki wants to make that as hard for us as possible. He wants us to choose him," said Stephen Biddle, a Council on Foreign Relations defense expert who has served as an advisor on strategy to Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq. "What it looks like we are getting is a Maliki government that won't behave itself and wants to crush the Sons of Iraq."

This is confirmed by a series of other reports filed on the ground including experts like Colin Kahl of CNAS who is also reconsidering his former optimism on the subject.

"There's even some evidence that [al-Maliki] wants to start a fight with the Sons of Iraq," said Kahl. "Al-Maliki doesn't believe he has to accommodate these people. He will only do it if we twist his arm to the breaking point."

Kahl -- noting the slowdown in absorption of Sunni militia members into the Iraqi military and the assignment of humiliating jobs to those who were being incorporated into the central government's payroll - stated:

"The last time we humiliated thousands of these guys is back in 2003, and we got the insurgency."

Turns out those who have been warning that sectarian tensions still run deep (even if there's a tactical pause in violence) and preclude the oft-discussed political reconciliation just might be right after all. Most analysts have missed this, looking to problematic barometers like body counts and the passage of central government legislation despite huge implementation gaps.

This ignores crucial sources that are methodologically difficult to process and measure but still critical to fully understanding the bigger picture in Iraq. That is -- what people are saying and through that, their intentions for the medium to long term. In this arena, the people seem to be more successful at gauging the temperature are those reporters on the ground able to penetrate the narrative beyond the green zone. More often than not, they are Arabic speakers able to infiltrate different interest groups or militias and get a more accurate read of the country -- something I would proffer the O'Hanlons and Pollacks of DC, despite their travels to Iraq, have had a harder time doing. (In fact, Middle East correspondent for The Economist Max Rodenbeck's scathing review of Ken Pollack's latest book chastises him for "a lack of genuine intimacy with his subject.")

Returning to Maliki, poitical theorist Michel Foucault's inversion of the famous Clausewitz credo -- "politics is war by other means" -- appropriately describes Malikis tactics. Consolidating power and perpetrating violence through legal means is always more difficult to halt than open violence because it is cloaked in legitimacy.

The reason these revaluations matter is because if the gains over the past 18 months are only surface-level and unsustainable, it dramatically changes the calculus for "winnability" and whether its worth continuing to spend blood and treasure rather than cutting our losses and rebalancing our foreign policy portfolio away from Iraq as Steve Simon, Flynt Leverett, Gen. (Ret.) William Odom, and others have suggested.

Though Sen. John McCain has made clear his policy preferences, there is a battle currently being waged in the Democratic party over the approach to Iraq and picking Sen. Joe Biden as a running mate shows Sen. Obama takes this debate very seriously. Some of these battles may play out over the course of this week as the Democratic policy elite and intelligentsia converge in Denver for a convention as riven over foreign policy as poltical camps.

-- Sameer Lalwani

August 24 - 29 (Sunday-Friday)

Denver -- Democratic National Convention

Steve Clemons, Sameer Lalwani, Brian Till, Daniel Levy, Rebecca Abou-Chedid, Steve Coll (only August 26-27)

August 29 - September 1 (Friday - Monday)

Boston -- American Political Science Association Annual Meeting

Steve Clemons

Minneapolis/St. Paul - Republican National Convention

Steve Clemons, Brian Till, Daniel Levy, Rebecca Abou-Chedid, Reihan Salam

-- Steve Clemons

I have already commented about AP Washington Bureau Chief Ron Fournier's edgy attack on the Obama-Biden ticket. I'm not going to add more at this point from my end.

But from others a lot is stirring.

Fournier's article has helped Biden get an instant embrace from the netroots community who are lined up to defend him and call foul on Fournier who allegedly sought a position in the McCain campaign operation.

One of the biggest headaches Fournier may now face is a possible conflict of interest in having a booking agent for speeches for which he may charge between $5-10k and an Associated Press ethics guideline statement that such booking relationships are prohibited.

Lindsay Beyerstein pushed over that rock, and we'll be watching to see what implications this revelation has.

-- Steve Clemons

Part of the social contract with both the Obama and McCain media teams is that we respect the embargo times on speeches and material they send our way.

But damn, this is hurting me today. I've just read Obama's speech about Joe Biden, the many adversities he's overcome, his accomplishments, details about his wife Jill and the Biden family.

It's a terrific speech. Ted Sorensen's former right hand aide, Adam Frankel, is a close Obama speechwriter, and I sense his hand in this. But this is also real Obama and real Joe Biden -- and it pains me not to be able to share it until he delivers it.

(I just learned that this excellent speech was "all Ben Rhodes" -- who is a great writer as well -- and who has been a blogger at "Across the Aisle", the blog of Partnership for a Secure America.)

But that will happen soon.

-- Steve Clemons

Update: Here is the entire speech, a great speech about Joe Biden that says a great deal not only about Biden but also about Obama.

I've not been all that excited about the McCain "I don't know how many houses I've got" gaffe.

I know others who aren't tuned into such details and they'd make fine national leaders. One can be out of touch with a lot of things -- numerous homes, paying bills on time, remembering to put gas in the car, knowing which drawer the kitchen utensils are in (that's one of my regular screw-ups), and so on.

But Rogue Columnist captures the beyond-home implications of the gaffe that we should be concerned about:

President-elect McCain's inability to recall how many houses he owns fits into a larger and more troubling pattern. The problem is not just that he is an out-of-touch rich guy.

This is the candidate who repeatedly confused Shiite and Sunni -- all the while trumpeting his expertise on the Middle East. At one point, his sock puppet Joe Lieberman had to whisper the facts in his ear. He couldn't tell Sudan from Somalia. He kept talking about a nation that hasn't existed for years. Iraq and Pakistan share a border, the senator wrongly said, and the Sunni awakening happened 'after' the surge (edited out by CBS). He said he didn't know much about economics, then denied saying such a thing. He spoke of a withdrawal timetable one day, then denied saying it later. He volunteered Cindy for a topless contest. Then there was the stupendous dead space and mumbling when he was questioned about claiming Obama was playing the race card. He claimed he walked through Baghdad without body armor or protection, etc., etc. Most of this has been captured on tape.

What's going on? Neither obvious answer is comforting. He's either going senile as he nears 72, or he's lying and unprepared on critical issues without realizing how easily this can be caught in a YouTube era. (Whether the duhs and ignos -- those 'undecided voters' and angry Clintonites -- will care, is another, depressing matter). Either one of these answers should disqualify him for the White House, particularly because so many of his misstatements, confusions and subsequent lies come about issues where he claims superior experience and judgment.

I turn 46 on Wednesday next week -- during the Democratic National Convention -- so I'm feeling particularly vulnerable to age challenges. I don't care if McCain is 72. I care whether he is functioning mentally, intellectually, and emotionally in full form.

This is a candidate who has already decided that Russia is the dark villain and Georgia's Saakashvili the white knight in the scrape-up between Russia and Georgia. In that case, did he talk with his advisers to make sure that he had his facts straight and intelligence right? Wait, one of his top national security advisers is a paid lobbyist for Georgia. . .so, let's change that to "Did McCain ask his biased staff members to recuse themselves and then ask others to help him get his facts straight?'

Or did he just decide what was what all on his own when he issued his condemnation of and not so veiled threats toward Russia?

I don't care if folks see the Georgia-Russia mess as a black and white situation or a problem with lots of gray, if McCain is making fast judgments but often has a poor grasp of detail. . .and let's put some "emotional outbursts" on top of that. . .then that's not a trivial problem.

-- Steve Clemons

I have the privilege of moderating a book salon forum today over at FireDogLake with New Yorker Washington correspondent Jane Mayer on her best selling book, The Dark Side: The Dark Side: The Inside Story of How the War on Terror Turned into a War on American Ideals.

This is an online forum. I did another of these at FireDogLake once with Jacob Heilbrunn on his book, They Knew They Were Right: The Rise of the Neocons, and it was a fantastic discussion.

If you would like to watch a previous meeting that I hosted with Jane Mayer, this is a pretty great interview:

This is the preamble commentary that will run later on the FireDogLake site:

New Yorker Washington correspondent Jane Mayer achieved a great first among serious Bush administration-watchers in putting a major spotlight on the deeds of David Addington, Vice President Cheney's Chief of Staff and former national security advisor.

She wrote her pivotal New Yorker profile piece of Addington called "The Hidden Power" in July 2006 - but even this great expose came years after some of Addington's most serious and disconcerting achievements including the assertion of a war-time imperial presidency that ignored and had disdain for checks and balances in government.

Addington helped construct the legal environment that the White House used to embrace torture as a technique of detainee interrogation. Washington Post national security columnist called Addington "Cheney's Cheney." David Addington is perhaps the most powerful political operative in Washington today about whom very little is known.

Jane Mayer will be joining FireDogLake's book salon this afternoon to talk about her new acclaimed and best-selling book The Dark Side: The Inside Story of How the War on Terror Turned into a War on American Ideals.

This book is in many ways the expanded, richly detailed, investigative journalistic account of the Bush administration's manipulation of the national security bureaucracy to embrace practices of torture and governance that are the antithesis of core American values and democracy itself.

She delves into Dick Cheney's high-decibel paranoia after 9/11, and the cowardice of Alberto Gonzales in knocking back the politically intimidating Cheney team when key principles were being debated. She reveals detailed Red Cross findings on the application of torture techniques to the CIA's top fourteen terror suspects.

The book that Jane Mayer has written gives us a snapshot of American government and an American presidency at its ugliest.

And this is an ugliness that we must explore and look at - and understand how it happened. Jane Mayer will be with us this afternoon to chat with FDL readers and readers of other blogs (like The Washington Note) about this important exploration of power, war, presidential abuses, and torture.

-- Steve Clemons

Feel free to join us at 5 pm EST after the big Obama-Biden show in Springfield, Illinois which we'll be watching closely as well.

-- Steve Clemons

A regular TWN reader, POA, just shared this gem of an egg-on-face moment at the Los Angeles Times.

The LA Times apparently was not reading The Washington Note. Too bad for them.

-- Steve Clemons

Update: OK...this is my egg on face moment. The LA Times did this cool line up of articles with all of the possible Obama running mates getting a positive nod. Thanks readers for sending this to me. SCC

Associated Press Washington Bureau Chief Ron Fournier has a tough critique out on Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden as his running mate.

A lot of folks are upset with Fournier. Some went as far to suggest that "FireFournier.com" is available for purchase.

This is going to be a long campaign and we should not be looking for orthodoxy among political pundits about what we are seeing evolve -- but we should be hoping for healthy back and forth debate about political choices and policy.

So my response to Ron Fournier is that he misreads what the Biden selection means in this race. Fournier writes that:

In picking Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate, Barack Obama sought to shore up his weakness -- inexperience in office and on foreign policy -- rather than underscore his strength as a new-generation candidate defying political conventions.

He picked a 35-year veteran of the Senate -- the ultimate insider -- rather than a candidate from outside Washington, such as Govs. Tim Kaine of Virginia or Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas; or from outside his party, such as Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska; or from outside the mostly white male club of vice presidential candidates. Hillary Rodham Clinton didn't even make his short list.

Taking Fournier at face value -- Obama's decision to get someone to bolster his foreign policy/national security credentials seems like a darned smart move to me. We are entering a period of enormous national security challenges abroad and economic challenges at home. It's much easier for Obama to requisition the econ experience needed to promote health care, infrastructure, education, support for those hit hard by the real estate sub prime crisis, and the like.

National security advice is much more tough. It takes years of absorption of what the world has been doing to itself to understand how to organize an effective, disciplined strategic course for the United States -- particularly at a time when the Bush administration has wrecked whatever global equilibrium previously existed.

So, I applaud Obama for recognizing this. Fournier doesn't even mention the candidate who was neck and neck with Biden, Evan Bayh. While Bayh has many strengths, he seems to be someone who felt that conflicts and crises are great moments to seize as ways to define America's power and define the presidency. Bad call as far as I'm concerned. That's more "tough" than "smart" -- and Biden in contrast is a hybrid of both. Perhaps Fournier thought the same. . .he just doesn't say.

On the issue of supporting Sebelius or Kaine -- both impressive governors. They are nearly as new at all this as Obama. The only reason that either would have made sense is for a combination of regional, red-state oriented outreach combined with the intention that withdrawing form the international scene and focusing more exclusively on development at home was going to be the Obama package. I just think that would have been a mistake to forfeit to McCain the entire national security portfolio debate -- which picking Kaine or Sebelius might have done.

On Hagel, I love Chuck Hagel and would have loved to have seen him as Obama's vice presidential pick.

But Ron -- you are a smart analyst. How can you seriously suggest Hagel as Obama's choice when you know very well that Barack Obama has not "technically" won the nomination? Obama's nomination depends upon the continued support of "super delegates" whose loyalties and support will be declared at the Democratic Convention next week. Had Obama selected Hagel, a sliver perhaps just large enough of irritated super delegates might have abandoned Obama in favor of Hillary Clinton.

Had Obama won the nomination outright, I would have loved more serious consideration of Hagel.

And on Hillary Rodham Clinton, I have always thought that that a ticket with them both on it would be unbeatable. But at the same time, I think Obama and Clinton would have a dysfunctional relationship and dysfunctional presidency. I think that the Obama people failed to reach out as well as they might have to HillaryLand, and this was unfortunate. But I also know that the Clinton team had a lot of attitude issues that they didn't get over until perhaps too late to encourage serious consideration of Hillary.

But back to Joe Biden.

The fact of the matter is that Biden polls well with many groups of Americans -- particularly elder Americans, white working class Americans, African Americans, Juggler Moms, Hispanics, and Jewish-Americans.

Insider or not, Biden is liked by the country -- and he's smart.

And Fournier himself should remember what happened to Jimmy Carter when he tried to be the total outsider who was going to wreck Washington's ways and do it differently. He had no insider to help him maintain the success of looking like an outsider.

Barack Obama has just hired the guy who can not only continue to help Obama look fresh by helping to get the inside game into the right supportive patterns, he has hired someone who is not a knee-jerk, young study on national security issues who knows what poor shape America's global position is in today.

There are many reasons why Joe Biden was exactly the right guy for Obama, but the biggest reason is that Biden's competence will help Obama be able to remain Obama.

None of the other candidates, from my perspective, would be able to deliver that as well.

-- Steve Clemons

Just when you thought we had eclipsed Scalito and Billary, you get your choice of Joebama or Obiden. Whichever it is, the two seem like good complements in more than name.

But I'm curious to see how their takes on policy toward Pakistan will meld given their wide distance on the subject a year ago -- Obama with his controversial speech deemed populist and impetuous in contrast with Biden's plan that demonstrated the great study, nuance, and precision of a seasoned bureaucrat.

Still, I'd imagine they'll blend better than Team McRomney (which sounds like a fast food chain restructured by Bain).

-- Sameer Lalwani

Joe Biden is the Vice Presidential running mate of Barack Obama.

Huge congratulations Joe -- this is one of the great moves of the Obama campaign, one that could have gone wrong -- and they got it very right.

-- Steve Clemons

A couple days ago an prominent though irate Kenyan journalist wrote a piece a the Washington Post bemoaning the Russian response to Georgian maneuvers in South Ossetia and suggested that Russia's "international standing [was] in tatters." His lament seemed valid in one sense, but laden with misplaced faith in a lofty, unified consensus of what "international standing" meant -- symptomatic, I'd posit, of the one sweet/flat world theory floating around.

On the contrary, Russia just stomped all over its neighbor and easily reasserted its sphere of influence in the caucuses, and while doing so, threw some huge elbows -- to its near abroad former republics, to NATO, and to any up and coming Eurasian great power challengers reconsidering their aversion to cross-border conflicts. Eurasian expert and Lehigh University Professor Rajan Menon best summed up my reaction when he wrote:

Another unpalatable truth is that Russia's behavior in this instance is the norm, not the exception: Great powers impose their will on weaker neighbors and limit their freedom of action -- all the time.

Airy discourses about the commerce-driven dynamics of globalization and new norms of international conduct will not vanquish realpolitik. Just as other powerful states have done, Russia will be persistent in preventing weak neighbors that it considers to be part of its legitimate sphere of influence from forging links with its adversaries; the means used will vary, but not the ends. In today's Russia, Vladimir Putin personifies this policy, but it reflects deeper realities rooted in balance of power politics.

In this crisis, America and Europe have also behaved as states invariably have: They do not want to spend blood and treasure when the risks are too high and vital interests are not involved. In this instance, no state within NATO wants to pick a fight with Russia right on its doorstep. Nor do they wish to offer Georgia a guarantee of future protection...

Russia's attack on Georgia also illustrates how little gratitude matters in the politics among nations and how easily it is trumped by the dictates of power.

When Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, sent troops to Iraq, and was hailed as a steadfast democratic ally by President George W. Bush, he no doubt expected to win some good will that could be redeemed in an hour of need. Perhaps he believed that the United States would mobilize its allies and admonish Russia if it were to attack Georgia -- perhaps even offer tangible assistance...

Utterly unsentimental and thoroughly cynical, Putin understands the arithmetic of power. In attacking a small and weak state located across Russia's border he did not take any big risks; and he bet that the West wouldn't either.

Sure, there will be costs for Russia's behavior -- it will certainly cost them in future international cooperation games but given the direction those efforts are going these days (failure of EU ratification, death of Doha, NATO's soul-searching, standoffs at the UN, and abrogated international treaties that litter the trail of this administration's tenure) it just might be banking on higher payoffs with the route it has chosen.

-- Sameer Lalwani

Check out what Marc Ambinder has dug up. . .

Here is another interesting link.

-- Steve Clemons

I am standing by my hunch that it's Biden, but need to note this odd news that some company in Kansas City has printed some Obama/Bayh bumper stickers.

Let's hope that this is a mistake, or misprint. . .

But I have to admit that folks figured out John Edwards was running as Kerry's running mate when they saw new stenciling being painted on to Kerry's airplane.

Not Bayh -- please no. His father maybe, but not Evan...!

-- Steve Clemons

From my point of view, Senator Joe Biden is an inspiring, experienced, over-the-top smart, fast-running boss who is a handful. He wrestles with ideas. He wrestles with his team. They knock him back. He knocks them back. He gives great zinger speeches and occasionally zinger gaffes. And they all laugh it off and move forward.

Risk averse politicians and risk averse staff are under-performers in Washington. Biden and his team work hard on solutions -- and they take risks. Some times they belly-flop, and that is the kind of political hand we need to see in the Vice President's office and close to the next President of the United States at such a historically pivotal time for the nation.

Biden has a few people he's had around forever and some new additions to his insider crowd. Three of the best -- though there are more I won't mention -- are Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chief of Staff Antony Blinken, Senate Foreign Relations General Counsel Brian McKeon, and Senate Office Chief of Staff and former Biden presidential campaign director Luis Navarro.

Working Mother magazine -- the journal of record for juggling moms -- just commended Joe Biden and his staff with its "Best of Congress Award". And along with Biden's "family friendly" disposition with his office staff, he said "get out of here" to Foreign Relations Committee Chief of Staff Tony Blinken who went off to Hawaii to vacation with his family.

Blinken enjoyed the surf and sun for about two days -- and then guess what, he's back in D.C. I know that he would not be thrilled by my reporting this.

And some in the Foreign Relations Committee office in the Senate have said that I should not read anything in to his being back in Washington.

Right. . .

Something is up -- and it's very good.

The next thing I need to find out is whether Luis, Tony & Co. are heading to Springfield to show off that two day tan.

-- Steve Clemons

I had the opportunity a few years ago to enjoy a rolling set of events with Senator Joe Biden, Wes Clark and other national notables.

My partner was with me and normally hates these kinds of things. But he bonded with Jill Biden. They are both educators -- Jill in Delaware and my partner in Maryland.

It was such a pleasure getting to know folks without the pressure of deadlines and press frenzies and the need to maintain a certain "posture." Joe Biden was awesome. . .and his wife Jill was even more impressive, for reasons I'll share more down the road.

But we all had some pics together -- and the next time I saw Joe Biden, he walked up to me at the Capital Hilton and stuffed some photos of us together in my pocket. "These are from Jill to Andrew," he said. Biden and I agree a lot on policy issues, but we also disagree here and there.

But on the personal front -- he had me hooked.

WAIT, strike that. She had me hooked.

I can't wait til America gets to know Jill Biden. As down to earth and serious about education as they come. She's a working mom like many others around the country.

Joe Biden is going to be Obama's vice presidential running mate.

-- Steve Clemons

Pawlenty is down. Kaine and Bayh are falling in the Intrade prediction markets.

But Joe Biden and Mitt Romney are surging.

-- Steve Clemons

The one concern that many in the VP prediction games have had is that there was a "sleeper candidate."

One of Joe Biden's close allies who kept telling me that they have heard nothing from the Obama camp and that there had been full "radio silence" pondered whether there was a sleeper candidate.

I mentioned that possibility.

Now, we have this odd leak of Congressman Chet Edwards as a new angle.

I still think Joe Biden is the right choice -- and until I learn more, I'm going to leave all this where it is. We'll know soon.

-- Steve Clemons

Imagine if you were OpenLeft's Matt Stoller -- and he woke up one day and he decided he couldn't take the drift in the Democratic Party any longer -- and he quit. Stoller became an independent or even a McCain-supporting Republican. Of course, that has happened to some Hillary Clinton supporters who have essentially become anti-Obama/pro-McCain operatives.

But quitting a party is difficult. I've seen some friends do it -- and it's traumatic for them. Lincoln Chafee quit the Republican Party and has become an Independent -- and many Republicans -- such as former Republican Congressman Jim Leach and Republican philanthropist and international lawyer Rita Hauser among others -- are remaining Republican but organizing behind Obama.

Christine Todd Whitman and long term Colin Powell aide Lawrence Wilkerson want their party back.

I quit the Democrats and Republicans long ago. I quit the Dems when the Los Angeles City Council, dominated by Dems, shifted its position under the direction of Richard Alatorre and Tom Bradley and issued previously blocked oil drilling permits to Armand Hammer and Occidental Petroleum. At that time, Al Gore's father -- the former Senator Al Gore Sr. -- sat on Occidental's board. I quit then.

I joined the Republicans, but too many bad encounters with "B-1 Bob Dornan" helped me make my slide into long term Independent status an easy one.

But when the Eisenhowers not only abandon a GOP candidate in favor of a Dem but actually quit the party -- that's a "canary in the coal mine" moment.

Ike's granddaughter, Susan Eisenhower, a realist/strategist, Eisenhower-style Republican has quit her grandfather's party. This is really a "wow" moment.

Read her entire statement, but here is a clip of her stand which was issued on National Interest Online, a publication affiliated with the Nixon Center:

I have decided I can no longer be a registered Republican.

For the first time in my life I announced my support for a Democratic candidate for the presidency, in February of this year. This was not an endorsement of the Democratic platform, nor was it a slap in the face to the Republican Party. It was an expression of support specifically for Senator Barack Obama.

I had always intended to go back to party ranks after the election and work with my many dedicated friends and colleagues to help reshape the GOP, especially in the foreign-policy arena. But I now know I will be more effective focusing on our national and international problems than I will be in trying to reinvigorate a political organization that has already consumed nearly all of its moderate "seed corn."

And now, as the party threatens to trivialize what promised to be a serious debate on our future direction, it will alienate many young people who might have come into party ranks.

My decision came at the end of last week when it was demonstrated to the nation that McCain and this Bush White House have learned little in the last five years.

They mishandled what became a crisis in the Caucusus, and this has undermined U.S. national security. At the same time, the McCain camp appears to be comfortable with running an unworthy Karl Rove-style political campaign. Will the McCain operation, and its sponsors, do anything to win?

I don't like applauding the shift of moderates away from the Republican Party. It's not healthy for a largely two-party system to find either party hijacked by radicals who appeal to slim minorities.

But I am glad that Susan Eisenhower shared her political course with us. It's something all of us who are interested in healthy political outcomes should note.

Her move also says a great deal about the destructive course the Republican Party has been heading for some time.

-- Steve Clemons

John McCain got right on the edge of class warfare language along the lines that his pal (though resigned from the campaign) and potential Treasury Secretary Phil Gramm did when the former Texas Senator accused Americans of being a "nation of whiners".

In recent days, John McCain has said that the folks he considers rich are the ones with assets of more than $5 million. And he also apparently has forgotten the number of houses he owns.

Compare this to Joe Biden who in 2005 was ranked 99th out of 100 senators in terms of personal wealth.

And amazingly in 2006, Open Secrets lists Biden as 108th out of all US Senators (i.e., negative 8! How did he do that?) with a near negative value on total income and assets.

Biden has not enriched himself through marriage, book deals, land swaps, or even betting on Intrade.

That's an interesting contrast to Senator McCain -- sort of like it used to be between Democrats and Republicans.

-- Steve Clemons

The day after Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's resignation from his office under threat of impeachment earlier this week, I chaired a discussion with Pakistan Ambassador to the U.S. Husain Haqqani.

Haqqani has been on staff recently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and at Boston University before being named as Ambassador by Pakistan's new government.

Here is the longer discussion that featured both Ambassador Haqqani and Pakistan/Afghanistan expert and New Yorker correspondent Steve Coll.

Above I have pasted a four minute interview I did with Haqqani.

-- Steve Clemons

There has been movement between the Obama campaign and General Wesley Clark's team on the issue of his playing some kind of role at the Democratic National Convention.

The Obama campaign did reach out to Clark in the last several days to try and find some accommodation. Wesley Clark also communicated privately to the campaign as well as through his staff to The Washington Note that his commitment to the Democratic Party and to the success of Barack Obama's presidential bid was as strong as ever and that he would play whatever role they asked him to if it would be of value. He made clear through his staff that he would work around a tight schedule of board of directors meetings that week to appear at the Convention if asked.

It seems that the Obama campaign has moved its agenda around a bit to try and accommodate Clark to some degree. I can't go into details yet until the Obama campaign makes the announcement itself -- but Clark said today that he would get to the Convention on Thursday.

While the nature of Clark's role has not been fully specified -- he may appear in an event originally scheduled for Wednesday and moved to Thursday. It is not clear whether he will speak or not.

In any case, kudos to Wes Clark for being "big" in this case. In my view, to solve this problem of a gaping void that would have been created between Clark and the Democratic Party had he not appeared, Clark is agreeing to be there -- at the request of the Democratic Party.

My instinct tells me Clark deserves a far better role than he's going to be offered -- but it's a good thing that the Obama campaign staff moved a notch or two as this blog and others called on them to do. And Clark deserves applause for not letting the DNC and Obama Land get away with exclusion of him at the convention.

He needs to be on stage -- and frankly in my view -- he needs to be speaking. For Wesley Clark not to have been there would have caused a wound that would have taken much time from which to recover.

-- Steve Clemons

Stream videos at Ustream

Today, I am hosting two events at the New America Foundation which will stream live here at The Washington Note.

The first of these features Richard Vague, the founding CEO of the former First USA Bank and the builder of the largest credit card operation at that time in the United States. Vague is a Republican CEO but is not supportive of the Bush administration and is a close friend and political supporter of Senator Joe Biden. He is the founder of www.AmericanRespect.com and he's going to talk about war, the impact on energy and inflation and what this means for America's future and options.

Secondly, Ambassador and former Presidential Envoy James Dobbins who organized and convened the Bonn Conference designed to stabilize Afghanistan and which included strong Iran participation will talk about his new book After the Taliban: Nation-Building in Afghanistan. Dobbins now directs the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND Corporation.

The meeting on "How the War is Driving Oil Costs Up and American Families Down" will run approximately from 11 am until noon EST. The meeting with Dobbins titled "Does Nation-Building Have a Future?" will run from about 12:15 pm til 1:45 pm EST.

-- Steve Clemons

The Obama campaign needs to reverse course and reach out to General Wesley Clark who is the No. 1 most requested surrogate by Democratic Party fundraisers. He is a thoughtful, top tier, command experienced strategist. He once told me that we need to organize an "Urgent Action Climate Change Task Force."

How many generals are really, totally committed to climate change as a national security issue? The answer is not many -- but Wesley Clark is.

And first in September 2005 and then again in January 2006 at events that I helped organize, Wesley Clark laid out brilliantly the reasons why Iran must be engaged with a broad negotiation agenda without preconditions. He broke the ground for engaging Iran -- far before any other possible presidential contender did so.

We hear too much about a comment that Clark made about McCain on "Face the Nation" (which was technically correct) -- but we don't hear enough about the times he was right before just anyone on some tough calls -- particularly on Iran.

I'll never forget his speech at YearlyKos in Chicago 2007 when he called on President Bush to stop hiding between David Petraeus.

The Obama campaign has not offered a "role" -- as of yet -- to General Clark at the Democratic convention.

I have been told by Wesley Clark's office that the General would do anything he could do on behalf of the party and on behalf of Barack Obama if he could be of service. He has two board of directors meetings scheduled the week of the convention, but I know that he would adjust his schedule to be there. He wants to play a role -- and I think Dems need him now and will need Clark's service for many years ahead.

So, I very much hope that the Obama campaign will reach out to General Clark and offer him a role at the Convention -- a role that fits the stature and service of Wesley Clark.

I know Clark will be there if the Obama campaign engages him. . .because Clark is a dedicated team player, a strong supporter of Obama and the Dems, and someone who Dems should not take for granted.

Let's see what happens.

Note to Obama team: It's time to recruit General Clark and the many who respect and support him into your big tent.

-- Steve Clemons

P.S. -- Still on constant VP watch. I'm perplexed and worried about the rumors of Obama going to Indiana on Saturday. I don't know if Bayh has some how turned around his situation with the Obama campaign.

I have to admit, news of this trip concerns me. I still think Joe Biden got the swing after Bayh was passed over last Friday -- but if this news is true that Obama may be going to Indiana on Saturday, then something may be up.

-- Steve Clemons

I'm up in Dearborn, Michigan tonight -- about to go on a show with James Zogby at the Arab American National Museum -- and got the news that my shared hotel room in Denver is now not available.

So, I keep hearing these rumors that corporations, associations, the DNC, the RNC, all have blocks of rooms that they have overbooked and are releasing on a selective basis.

So, if anyone has one of those rooms -- let me know. Otherwise, look for me on the park bench.

-- Steve Clemons

Update: It worked! I have a place. Thanks for the many, many emails. Really appreciate you folks keeping me off the streets.

In their article "Wrong on Russia" published today in The National Interest, Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett follow a thread I began yesterday on US strategy towards Georgia. The Leveretts, along with a number of others Steve Clemons has mentioned (here, here, and here), are skeptical of both Presidential campaign's approaches to Georgia and Russia as they commit the fundamental error that has led this administration down treacherous paths -- failure to strategically prioritize relationships and objectives in the region. There should be no doubt that the tangible security deliverables a strong relationship with Russia can offer are far more valuable than anything Georgia's dubious democracy purports to uphold.

The Leveretts lay out Russia's role in the global order and value to the United States:

As Washington contemplates future relations with Moscow, U.S. pundits and policymakers should keep two fundamental realities in mind. First, America and its European allies need positive relations with Moscow, if for no other reason than to forestall Russian steps that could seriously damage Western interests. For example, as Russia's current account surplus continues to balloon alongside rising oil prices, Moscow is emerging as an increasingly important purchaser of U.S. Treasury securities and agency paper. Would those calling on Washington to deliver various ultimatums to Russia prefer that Moscow dump its dollar denominated assets? Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told us recently that Moscow is preparing the ground for the possible introduction of contracts to purchase Russian oil that would be denominated in rubles, rather than dollars. Does the anti-Russia camp want Moscow to take such a step, given its likely negative impact on the dollar's long-term value?

Similarly, Europe's need for Russian gas will only continue to grow in coming years. The West cannot "work around" this situation with pipe dreams about new pipelines, like the European Union's Nabucco project, for which there are insufficient non-Russian gas volumes to make them economically viable. Shortly before he moved from Russia's presidency to its premiership earlier this year, Putin said that Europe and the United States could build Nabucco and any other pipelines they wanted. But, he asked rhetorically, where would they get the gas to fill them? In the end, Europe cannot provide for its own energy security without a deep and productive partnership with Russia.

Second, the United States and its allies need Russia's cooperation in the international arena. Russia is and will remain a permanent member of the Security Council, which means that Washington must work with Moscow if there are to be even minimally effective multilateral responses to the full range of "threats to international peace and security," from Afghanistan to Iran and Zimbabwe. We cannot "work around" this reality by championing a "concert of democracies" as an alternative forum for legitimating decisive international action -- an idea that will only antagonize Russia (and China) without providing any strategic benefit.

In addition to the critical arenas like energy security and Iran where Russia is essential and Georgia can play little to no meaningful role, the US very much needs Russian cooperation in the area of unsecured fissile material and non-proliferation efforts.

If this administration or the next thinks this terrorism to be high on the national security threat list then it would do well to heed the advice of experts like Peter Bergen who warn the next big attack will likely come in the form of a radiological bomb. It would be both operationally easy, made from accessible loose fissile material, and guarantee a high fear return by creating the impression that al Qaeda had crossed the nuclear threshold. If this is the case, Russia also becomes the linchpin to securing fissile material sites to stave off such scenarios and moves up even further in the "critical relationships" column.

-- Sameer Lalwani

Today, I will be flying up to Dearborn, Michigan and back to meet representatives of the Arab American community and to tape a show on James Zogby's Viewpoint on public attitudes toward Arab Americans.

Barack Obama recently launched a new part of his website dedicated to the interests of Arab Americans -- which I applaud. I have learned that he will also soon be appointing a new Arab American/Muslim American outreach director to replace Mazen Asbahi who recently resigned.

John McCain too has an Arab American affinity page. And to his credit, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis sent this letter (pdf) to members of the Muslim American community. McCain's camp didn't specify an outreach director in the letter -- but they do have an informal adviser, Majida Mourad, who works in former Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham's office and is reportedly quite networked and capable.

-- Steve Clemons

This is a guest post by Johanna Mendelson Forman. Forman is Senior Associate in the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Speaking for myself, I will never forget the day that Sergio Vieira de Mello was murdered along with other colleagues at the UN offices in Baghdad, Iraq. There are few leaders in the world of his vision and tenacious capacity. -- Steve Clemons

Today marks the 5th anniversary of the brutal attack on UN Headquarters in Baghdad.

August 19, 2003 represents not only the death of one the UN's greatest talents, Sergio Vieira de Mello and 22 other courageous international civil servants, but also the downward spiral of the UN's ability to wage peace.

After the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in May 2003, and the subsequent occupation of Iraq by a Coalition of the Willing, the U.S. made an affirmative choice to go it alone, without the support of the United Nations. The decision to internationally ostracize the UN for its unwillingness to support an invasion of Iraq without Security Council approval also jeopardized the safety and security of UN officials who still felt compelled to support the humanitarian needs of Iraqi civilians.

As Kieran Prendergast, former Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs, noted the UN effort in Baghdad had become a "suicide mission" and required complete UN withdrawal which occurred in October of 2003.

Looking back on such tragic events today it is unclear how much the UN could have accomplished in light of the fateful decisions taken by the U.S. and coalition administrators to demobilize the Iraqi army, which then formed the backbone of a vicious insurgency, or to de-Bathify thousands of civil servants who could have helped maintain some semblance of governance in many parts of the country.

Counterfactual assumptions are not helpful for understanding the past. What we do know is that had Sergio Vieira de Mello lived he would still have faced unbearable odds in rebuilding an Iraq after it had been the subject of intense UN sanctions.

It was institution vilified by many of those Iraqis who suffered as a result of the depravation caused sanctions, though ironically it was the Oil-for-Food program of the UN that helped to undermine the economic power of Saddam Hussein.

De Mello himself recognized the uphill battle he was facing even as he struggled to make sense of the mission he was given in Baghdad. According to his biographer, Samantha Powers, he yearned to be out of Iraq and was planning his exit when a suicide bomber attacked the Canal Hotel cutting him down.

As conditions in Iraq stabilize it is time to reconsider the role that the international community must play in supporting the small gains in governance, the improvement of the lives of women, and the continued humanitarian efforts that any war-torn society must have to recover.

This is not the time to debate UN relevance, or a time to evaluate what should have happened.

As the UN General Assembly begins a month from now it is urgent that the U.S. government reconsider the importance of the institution in its most demanding task to date: helping the U.S. find a way out of what may be one of the most intractable of conflicts launched by an administration eager for revenge after 9/11, but short on diplomatic solutions in a part of the world that was poised to implode.

-- Johanna Mendelson Forman

This is a guest post by a long time reader of The Washington Note.

As a charter reader of TWN, I appreciate Steve's allowing me to guest blog on this occasion, from way outside the Beltway in the US State of Georgia, about the importance of the Senate races in the coming election and particularly the one in Georgia.

Most of you around the country recall the ugly negative campaign against Max Cleland in 2002 that elected Saxby Chambliss. Cleland decided never to seek elective office again.

(Senator Joe Biden and the masked Senator Chuck Hagel Make Policy Work Fun on Halloween, October 2007)

This strange little piece just popped up at ABC:

ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf and Jennifer Parker reports: As Delaware Sen. Joe Biden was leaving his house in Wilmington this afternoon, he slowed down and said to the gathered news reporters outside his home: "Hey guys, I'm not the guy. See ya."

I don't think Biden knows any more than the rest of America knows on who will be the next VP. As I suspect below, he has not been called by Obama to say that he is not the choice nor has he been called to say that he is.

But by saying "I'm not the guy," what is he saying?

Did Biden receive a phone call saying "thanks for playing but not going to work out"? I haven't been able to confirm that.

Or alternatively, has Biden heard nothing -- and thus can say that "I'm not the guy" because he has received no indication that he is? Even though he might be. . .?

I think the latter is the case -- but we'll see.

-- Steve Clemons

Obama's campaign is really smart. They have the blogging and media communities jumping at every flick of the Obama campaign's collective pinky -- wondering what this gesture or that might reveal about who will be selected as Obama's running mate.

I'm fascinated by the tension that has built up over this selection process and think that almost anyone but Evan Bayh is going to get thunderous applause -- mostly because folks will be relieved that the wait is over.

Sources can be wobbly, and anyone trying to reach out to insiders runs the risk of being drawn into a trap or being fed false or just unintentionally incorrect information.

But my best guess today -- as I've said for days now -- is that Obama's choice is Joe Biden.

In contrast to the netroots and progressive community's "surge of concern" over the former momentum of Evan Bayh's selection -- a wide range of support exists for Joe Biden.

Biden polls well with working women, with white working class males, with Hispanics, and perhaps most importantly -- with the elderly and with elder, politically active Jewish-Americans who give a disproportionate amount of money politically in comparison to the population size of Jewish-Americans in the U.S. And Biden, on the whole, is liked by the netroots and progressive communities -- and the blogosphere in recent days has embraced him.

There could be a sleeper candidate, or Obama could change his mind.

But what I think I know is that Senator Obama has decided with a 98% factor of certainty on his choice. Obama is able to change course if need be between now and the VP announcement if something unexpected shows up in the political marketplace about his as yet unannounced but probable running mate.

Tom Daschle and Evan Bayh were called and told they will not be 'it' according to several sources. I don't have anything on Tim Kaine -- other than insiders tell me that Obama has decided against him -- mostly because he doesn't help check off the foreign policy box or experience box. I just don't hear much about Kathleen Sebelius so am not counting her as a strong candidate.

Wesley Clark and Bill Richardson were not seriously considered according to sources -- and Jack Reed, who Obama likes a great deal, would not allow himself to be vetted. I don't believe Chris Dodd was high on the list.

Sam Nunn was knocked out by progressives, and this blog may have helped with regard to his unreformed position on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

Hagel would be a game-changing choice on a few levels -- but one of those levels could produce a strange scenario in which his selection could anger enough super delegates that they would revolt and hand Hillary Clinton a surprise convention victory. That means Hagel is not a real option.

Hillary Rodham Clinton would be a shocker -- a move that would both force everyone to catch their breath and say 'wow' while at the same time animating Republicans who were asleep with their own candidate's blandness to arise and work against an Obama-Clinton win. Essentially, I think Obama has decided against Hillary and what he fears would be a dysfunctional presidency with her -- even though an Obama/Clinton ticket is one of the few combinations that looks like a knock out punch to McCain and the Republicans.

But that leaves Joe Biden, who was recently traveling in Georgia and surveying the situation there. In typical Biden style, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman specified where Russia had crossed inappropriate lines but he did so without squealing in some hyperventilating manner like so many other pundits and observers have. And he left portals open to explore what is right, and what is effective and in American interests regarding future such situations as Georgia and NATO. He didn't jump behind Georgia full stop on everything. Biden was judicious -- and we need more of that.

But has Biden heard a word from Obama or his team?

My sources say NO.

According to one source, there has been total radio silence.

Well, be thankful for radio silence I guess when other candidates for VP are getting phone calls saying "Sorry....but we look forward to working with you in many other ways in the coming years."

The word that Obama has not communicated with Biden makes him, in the estimation of many, the likely candidate -- as Obama knows that Biden will accept on a moment's notice. I confirmed this with a person very close to the Delaware Senator.

The thinking is that the moment a VEEP candidate gets the positive nod from Obama, the candidate then tells his spouse and family -- and they can't help but tell close family and friends, and then bloggers like me get the drift and put it out there. To keep it quiet and the decision un-firm continues the buzz, hype and dominance of the media by Team Obama -- and also keeps Obama's options open until the last possible moment lest something unexpected pop up.

Intrade, which is a futures prediction market, confirms much of what I have written. The last trade has Biden surging 19 points to 50% probability of selection.

What is interesting is the roster of other rankings:

Biden 50%

Kaine 15.5%

Bayh 12.7%

Sebelius 13.9%

Clark 12.9%

Clinton 9.3%

Dodd 3.0%

Rendell 2.0%

Gephardt 5.0%

Bloomberg 1.5%

Gore 3.0%

Cohen 2.0%

John Edwards 0.5%

Did you catch that last bit? Wow. . .what a fall.

-- Steve Clemons

The common thread running through a series of events in the past weeks -- from Georgia, to Pakistan, to perhaps parts of Latin America -- is one I would term geopolitical stickiness, though unlike the economics term, this is less a natural failure and more one of poor execution and ideological traps getting in the way of strategy.

In Georgia, US (and to some extent European) strategy has been largely to develop an alternative conduit of oil and gas to Europe that isn't controlled by Russia, namely, the south stream through the Trans-caspian, BTC, and Nabucco pipelines. As US Deputy Assistant Secretary Matthew Bryza explained to a delegation I was a part of during the NATO summit in Bucharest, US strategic objectives are to ensure competitive energy markets to prevent the chokehold Russia has managed to develop with its control of oil and gas transportation infrastructure.

In recent years, Russia has not only used the current energy boom to grow its economy but to punch above its weight geopolitically. Part of this has to do with the US underestimating Russia and Russian interests (I recall two of my colleagues feuding over the proposition of Russia merely being a "Chad with nuclear weapons" -- perhaps in the long term with continued uneven economic development and depopulation, but certainly not in the short term). But part of this is Russia's grip over Europe through its pipelines, which is how it successfully divided France and Germany from the United States over efforts to deploy missile defense systems in Europe.

Balancing their influence and seeking some geopolitical pluralism in the region is a natural part of regional strategy -- to develop a regional balance for stability. But the danger -- the stickiness -- comes when policies begin to get too deeply intertwined with the internal micropolitics such that we lose sight of the broader strategic objective. Attaching our policy too closely to President Mikheil Saakashvili when he was clearly our strongman rather than the noble, crusading democrat we propped him up to be is just such a example. By the time Saakashvili was recklessly trying to convert US support and a promise of entrance into NATO to consolidate internal power, it was clear a Russian (over)reaction was not far behind. And this has likely set back the energy market diversification strategy. We have all along discounted Saakashvili's risk because we trapped ourselves with sticky, failed democracy promotion efforts in very divided states (like Georgia and Ukraine) without a national consensus or real democratic leaders.

Free TV Show from Ustream

I will be chairing an event that will stream live here today at The Washington Note with Pakistan Ambassador to the US Husain Haqqani -- a good friend well known in Washington, Boston and New York circles -- and Ghost Wars Pulitzer Prize winning author Steve Coll who is also my boss at the New America Foundation.

The event, titled "Pakistan: Toward Democracy and Stability -- A Conversation on Pakistan's Turbulent Political Environment," will stream from 12:15 pm EST til 1:45 pm EST.

And it will also run LIVE on C-Span 2.

-- Steve Clemons

And you thought he was just good at foreign policy. . .

Working Mother Magazine -- the journal of record for what Obama senior policy adviser Karen Kornbluh called "the juggler family" and a place to learn about "the mommy tax" -- has honored Joe Biden with its "Best of Congress Award."

From the magazine:

Senator Joseph R. Biden, Jr., D-Delaware Staffers 76 Working-mom staffers 16

What we love A U.S. senator for nearly 36 years, he puts kids' health, safety and education at the top of his priorities list.

A-Plus Education Advocate Sen. Biden worked with Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) on the Facilitating Outstanding Classrooms Using Size Reduction (FOCUS) Act, which would provide $2 billion in funding to hire 100,000 new teachers so that class size would be reduced to an average of 18 students, especially in the early grades. This legislation would ensure that reducing class size wouldn't mean having to compete for funding with teacher and administrator professional development and training.

Women's Health Support Along with his wife, Jill, Biden has been a longtime leader in the fight against breast cancer.

They helped establish the Biden Breast Health Initiative in 1993 to educate young women across Delaware on the importance of proper breast health and the importance of early detection. The program has educated more than 6,000 Delaware high schoolers since it was started.

I've been punching myself to think through whether there is a VP sleeper nominee out there I haven't figured out or seen. The only one I don't have a fix on is Virginia Governor Tim Kaine -- but logic leads me to think that while Obama likes him and considers him "close," Obama will not choose him in part for those reasons.

My gut -- which is usually right -- is telling me Biden will be Obama's vice presidential running mate.

-- Steve Clemons

Senator McCain's presidential campaign team has put out a call for DC interns:

John McCain needs YOU!

The John McCain 2008 Presidential Campaign is looking for interns and volunteers for full-time positions available immediately in our Arlington (Crystal City), headquarters.

Interns/volunteers will work with staff on various projects essential to the campaign and play a significant role in building Senator McCain's grassroots efforts. Interested candidates should send a resume and cover letter to: Volunteer4@JohnMcCain.com

Thank you!

Jacob Champion, Deputy Director of Volunteers
Volunteer4@JohnMcCain.com

I am one of those who would like to see the best and brightest young people engage in either party, and campaign internships can be great ladders up. A young friend of mine who we nicknamed "wombat" started out four years ago as a political organizer in the DC office of the Kerry campaign and by the time he was done, he was hanging out with John Kerry. He's not quite running the Democratic Party -- but he's extraordinarily networked, and he's humble and has his head squarely (if not straightly) on his shoulders.

So I do encourage young, balanced go-getters who tilt Republican to apply to Senator McCain's office -- but while doing this, read as much as you can written by Senator Chuck Hagel, Senator Richard Lugar, former Senator Lincoln Chafee, former New Jersey Governor and EPA Administrator Christine Todd Whitman, former Senator Jack Danforth, and former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft.

And then if you feel so inclined, be sure to "politely" share with Senator McCain (or more likely his campaign staff) your openness and flexibility in reconsidering Don't Ask/Don't Tell, your open-mindedness on civil unions and gay marriage, your support of gay adoption and gay parenting (like Mary Cheney has exemplified), and your objection to conducting wars without raising money to pay for them. You might add that wars are really last, final, no other option acts and not really appropriate to chuckle or sing about.

I know a bunch of folks over there in McCain Land and admire many of them -- but best not to mention my name or this blog to the foreign policy types.

Good luck applying!

-- Steve Clemons

Pervez Musharraf's move today -- his resignation -- is the right one for Pakistan. An impeachment process, now avoided, might have further shaken up and aggravated serious, nation-splitting tensions between factions in the military, legal community, and among the competing political parties.

However, Musharraf's enemies now have a problem. They have no enemy to rally against inside the country (they seemingly don't want to rally against al Qaeda inspired and Talibanized parts of the nation).

Musharraf's rivals now need to be "for" something rather than just against him. Hopefully, the competing parties will continue to collaborate on taking on huge challenges facing the nation -- but their record is not good.

Enemies, internal and external, make life for a Pakistani political order so much easier.

-- Steve Clemons

P.S. -- I am in San Francisco today doing some personal stuff. I won't be on line much today.

I won't post sources on this, so any folks are welcome to consider this my fanciful speculation.

But sources close to Obama report to me that after the "surge of concern" on the net about Evan Bayh, he has not been selected as Obama's VP running mate.

I have been informed that the decision has been made, and I don't know who that person is.

I also have been told that Tom Daschle is not the running mate. I also happen to know that it is not Wesley Clark.

I just received word that it is not Senator Jack Reed either, though Obama thought very highly of him.

In my estimation, that leaves Joseph Biden, Chuck Hagel, and Sibelius. I don't think that Tim Kaine would be the nominee given the elevation of Mark Warner as the keynote speaker at the Dem convention.

As much as I would love Hagel to be the nominee, I don't think that will happen. . .and while I could be wrong here, I have heard next to nothing about Sibelius.

That leaves Joe Biden. Could Warner be a head fake -- and it's Tim Kaine after all? Not sure. . .circumstantial evidence points to Biden.

Of all places where Biden is now, he's in Georgia -- the one in the tangle with Russia.

One well placed political expert just told me on the phone that we may all be wrong and that Obama could come out with something completely unexpected -- a Hillary Clinton or even (and this shocked me) Al Gore or John Kerry. I don't have any info on such surprising possibilities as these.

We may know Monday or Tuesday.

I won't defend or go into my sources. Discount this as you like.

-- Steve Clemons

(General Wesley Clark speaking at Yearly Kos Convention in Chicago, 2007)

General Wesley Clark is not attending the Democratic National Convention. I was told by General Clark's personal office in Little Rock that he would not be attending.

Clark was informed by Barack Obama's people that there was no reason to come.

General Clark has been given no role of any kind at the convention.

Rubbing salt in the wound even more, the "theme" of Wednesday's Democratic convention agenda is "Securing America."

Wesley Clark's PAC also happens to be called SECURING AMERICA.

This is a mistake in my view. There are a lot of perspectives and competing agendas about how to direct America's next national security posture -- and General Wesley Clark should be one of the top tier names and personalities at the table.

Clark is loved by the netroots -- and I'm sure that they would hope that the Obama campaign will revisit this decision to exclude General Wesley Clark from the entire Democratic National Convention ageda.

-- Steve Clemons

Update: I have reconfirmed with General Wesley Clark's office that he has not been asked to play a role at the Democratic National Convention. His staff have told me that while his schedule remains tight, he would rearrange his schedule to help play any constructive role on any days of the convention if asked.

The above forum features Susan Rice, who serves as Barack Obama's senior foreign policy adviser and is a fellow at Brookings; Karen Kornbluh, who the is principal author of the Democratic Party platform and is on leave as Obama's Senate office policy director; Steve Coll, President of the New America Foundation; and Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. I chaired the meeting.

I hope to host and organize a similar session with drafters of the Republican Party platform.

The Democratic Party platform is available here as a pdf.

A HUGE thanks to USTREAM-TV who helped support the live streaming of the event. I know that in some places the audio was challenged and the system crashed once. But overall, we had an enormous positive response from viewers around the world about the streaming. We had 4,763 unique views online through The Washington Note, UStream, and Pam's House Blend.

More later -- and for those who will be either in Denver or in Minneapolis for the conventions, send me a note at steve@thewashingtonnote.com and I'll invite you to a couple of cool forums I'm helping to organize.

-- Steve Clemons

Laura Rozen has the scooplet of the week. She discovered that Michael Ledeen and the American Enterprise Institute have ended their relationship.

On the AEI site, Ledeen is listed as "Former Freedom Scholar." But not to worry, Ledeed is a fully-fledged Freedom Scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

I'm really surprised about this because I didn't know top tier neocons could ever leave AEI. AEI has a diverse roster of scholars and thinkers, many of whom are not neoconservative-tilting at all, but at the same time -- AEI is the home base for the neocon movement.

This reminds me of when Chalmers Johnson told me he was exasperated with the state-protecting blandness of the Council on Foreign Relations -- so he decided to resign. After calling the CFR to cancel his membership, a person apparently told Chalmers that he couldn't resign from the CFR. . .no one resigns from the Council. . . The person said that his membership was for life. And his response: "Consider me dead."

Again, I'm really surprised that a leading neocon could ever leave AEI. . .

-- Steve Clemons

Apart from this, I haven't posted at all recently, in part because I've been moving back to New York and into a new apartment. On the plus side, $2 for ten delicious dumplings, the world's best pickles and world class soccer are right around the corner (my half-serious goal is to break into the floating Steve Nash/Claudio Reyna pickup game this summer). The big strikes against the new place are Williamsburg bridge traffic noise, carrying my furniture up six flights of stairs and outrageous New York City rent.

My plan is to occasionally post here throughout the year. Readers looking to contact me in the future should be able to get my e-mail through the NYU directory, but apparently I don't exist as a student there just yet. That should change in the next week.

-- Scott Paul

Additional Note: I strongly agree with Charles Brown here. Shame on Glenn Greenwald. I've worked with Morton Halperin for a few years and right or wrong, he's no political mercenary. He's a person with plenty of integrity and passion, and I have no reason to doubt the purity of his motives.

Here's a challenge: find a poltician who currently campaigns on energy issues and doesn't promise to end U.S. dependence on foreign oil. I doubt it's possible. The rhetorical drumbeat for and promises to achieve "energy independence" have gotten louder and more frequent. Yet it has become more and more clear that such a goal is unachievable and also complicates efforts to minimize dependence on oil altogether, which is where our policy ought to be taking us.

I've written on this before (here, here and here), but here's a quick recap. Eliminating dependence on foreign oil is unachievable because the energy market is global and its prices will be chiefly influenced by major oil producers so long as demand for oil drives the market. That means importing less oil would do little to dilute the influence of OPEC and other oil-producing countries, so long as the global demand for oil continues to grow. What we ought to be doing is breaking our addiction to oil (and other fossil fuels) and helping other countries do the same.

But the truth remains that demonizing oil producers and pitching Americans on cutting out their legs has been a political winner for years.

Here is FINAL of the Democratic Party Platform as pdf.

Barack Obama's national security advisor, SUSAN RICE, will join a program tomorrow featuring KAREN KORNBLUH, principal author of the Democrat's party platform and a senior Senate policy advisor (currently on leave) to Senator Obama that the New America Foundation is organizing on the just completed pre-convention Democratic Party platform.

The event will stream live here at The Washington Note as well as other blogs around the country. The meeting will take place on Friday, 18 August, from 12:00 pm til 1:45 pm EST.

I will be moderating this interesting discussion between Karen Kornbluh and Susan Rice and will weave in the commentary of two of my colleagues -- STEVE COLL, President of the New America Foundation and a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist for the New Yorker and MAYA MacGUINEAS, who heads the New America Foundation's Fiscal Policy Program and serves as President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

When I receive it Friday morning, I will post the final version of the pre-convention platform document here. It is slightly modified from the draft version I previously posted.

Karen Kornbluh is former Deputy Chief of Staff at the Department of Treasury and is currenlty on leave as Policy Director in the Office of Senator Barack Obama. She also previously served as Director of the Work and Family Program at the New America Foundation.

I should also add that I approached and invited the Republican National Committee about the possibility of doing a similar meeting in September.

-- Steve Clemons

I have not heard directly from Senator Evan Bayh's office about the issue of his having co-chaired with John McCain and Joseph Lieberman the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq.

But I just ran across this admission by Senator Bayh that he has no recollection of the neoconservative operation to which his name was attached. He does admit that it was attached though -- just not sure how it got there.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Sen. Bayh now says he regrets his early support of the Iraq war and has no recollection of the committee. "I don't remember any meetings, any conversations, any anything," Sen. Bayh said in a telephone interview Tuesday. "Obviously my name was linked to it, but other than that there's nothing that can be said."

Senators are busy -- and they get signed up for all sorts of stuff by staffers who operate in their bosses' names. That's just the way the system works.

But this is the first time I've seen a US Senator who has probably done many things by name that he has no direct recollection of disown an act by declaring ignorance of it.

I take Senator Bayh at his word that he may not recall this high profile committee that garnered lots of press attention and had McCain, Lieberman, Scheunemann, James Woolsey and others attached.

But then I think that the Senator owes us an explanation of how his staff signed him up for this -- or how it happened. He should do an investigation of the action done in his name and then share the results publicly.

The "I don't remember this" explanation doesn't quite get over the big hump of how he could unknowingly become a co-helmsman of one of the most controversial NGOs tied to the clamor to invade Iraq.

-- Steve Clemons

Pat Choate used to run TRW's shop in Washington, DC -- until he went out and wrote a book about the pervasive influence of Japan in the lobbying industry in the 1980s. That book was called Agents of Influence and it ought to be resurrected and modified to ask the same questions about the national security lobbying by the Government of Georgia and others today.

I'm hosting Choate -- who was the Vice Presidential running mate of Ross Perot for the Reform Party -- in 1996 to discuss with folks at the New America Foundation and on line here at The Washington Note his concerns about some of globalization's darker dimensions. This discussion is part of a new Smart Globalization Initiative that my colleagues have launched with Leo Hindery as chair at the New America Foundation.

Pat Choate's new book which we will be discussing is Dangerous Business: The Risks of Globalization for America.

This program, titled When Band-Aids No Longer Work: Manic Globalization's Dark Effects on America's Middle Class will STREAM LIVE today from 12:15 pm til 1:45 pm EST.

-- Steve Clemons

As I reported the other day, Evan Bayh is the favored candidate to find himself on Barack Obama's ticket. Obama will probably finalize his decision today or tomorrow and then announce his decision as he comes out of his Hawaii vacation. The Obama campaign has offered to text message anyone who wants early word of the decision.

I don't think that such a selection is the end of the world but I do think that this pro-Iraq War, (pro-Iran War?) senator who sat on a board of directors with some of McCain's top neoconservative advisers needs as much "public vetting" as possible. I think that there are far better choices - a number of them.

Taylor Marsh lays out Evan Bayh's neocon relations best. She writes:

What's the Matter with Evan Bayh?

Besides the fact that he was the co-chair of the neocon pro-war Committee for the Liberation of Iraq? That his friends on that committee included Bill Kristol, Joe Lieberman, James Woolsey and Randy Scheunemann. Oh, and one more, John McCain. You can bet that's why he's in the running though. The old Democratic ghost of being afraid of not looking "strong on defense" has reared it's ugly head once again. With Obama being against the Iraq war, how could it not?

Randy Scheunemann, national security advisor to John McCain, is the guy who was simultaneously raking in big bucks from John McCain as well as the Government of Georgia while he was getting pledges of loyalty and mutual obligation and all that between Georgia's President Saakashvili and John McCain.

Barack Obama terminated his campaign relationship with a volunteer adviser for Muslim outreach, Mazen Asbahi, because the young lawyer had been on a board eight years ago for a period of just three weeks before resigning because of discomfort with allegations about another board member who was essentially the Chicago-based American Muslim community's version of Jeremiah Wright.

But Bayh did not resign from his neocon-dominated board and has made statements that he laments the possibility that Americans may be less pro-war, pro-conflict now because of their experience with the Iraq War.

How does that square with Obama's "politics of hope"??

-- Steve Clemons

General Colin Powell has shrugged off good efforts by the Obama campaign to nudge his support into the open -- but while it can be understood that Obama's agents would try to sign Powell up, what does Bill Kristol have in mind stating that he expects Powell to tilt towards Obama?

Earlier today, Huffington Post's Seth Colter Walls quoted former national security advisor and CSIS Trustee Zbigniew Brzezinski saying that he expected Colin Powell to endorse Obama. Bill Kristol went a step further and said that he also expects the former Secretary of State to show up in Denver at the Democratic National Convention.

When I queried General Powell's office today, I received this statement from his office:

I am not attending any conventions and I have not decided who I am going to vote for. I have no idea why Bill Kristol started this rumor chain

Others received the same message.

So, what is Bill Kristol up to?

I have a hunch -- but it's completely speculative.

Since Steve Schmidt was given the operative reins of the McCain campaign, Schmidt has been pushing hard for flamboyant, dramatic showdowns to contrast McCain from Obama. He helped orchestrate the ongoing political theater on oil drilling. And Schmidt and his team have grabbed the Russia-Georgia conflict and tried to ratchet higher US-Russian tension rather than stand down, again to differentiate the McCain camp from what they hope is perceived as a more dovish Obama position.

My hunch is that Bill Kristol and friends don't want interest-calculating negotiators and balanced, sensible, pragmatic realists around McCain. They are perhaps using the Russia conflict to purge their foreign policy team of those who are not neocon or neocon-friendly -- and by trying to "export Colin Powell to Obama," Kristol is really going after his close friend and ally Richard Armitage while at the same time attacking General Powell's utility to Obama.

And who is helping Steve Schmidt and Bill Kristol orchestrate this purge and exploit this European crisis? I think Colin Powell's old White House nemesis -- Karl Rove.

Just a hunch -- but McCain's team is working on achieving national security clarity of the neoconservative kind.

-- Steve Clemons

(Keith Olbermann talks to Rachel Maddow -- which he does lots!)

Tonight, I'll be discussing Georgia, Russia and foreign policy lobbying with Rachel Maddow at Air America at about 6:30 pm EST. This is one of the articles Maddow will be referencing.

After that at about 8:05 pm, I'll be chatting about the whole foreign policy game, blogging, and the Beijing Olympics on XM's POTUS '08.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

I need to issue a correction. Yesterday, when I was called by Edward Luce, Bureau Chief in Washington for the Financial Times, I was asked to expand on something I had framed in a question on a media conference call to former Bush administration intelligence adviser Rita Hauser, former Senator Lincoln Chafee, and former Congressman Jim Leach.

I asked these three -- who are fellow travelers with essentially a wing of great Republican realists like Nixon, Brent Scowcroft, James Baker, Edward Djerejian, David Abshire, Carla Hills, and others -- whether their support of Barack Obama was a major earthquake in Republican foreign policy circles and what the political implications of that were.

One of the smartest people -- and most pleasant public intellectuals -- I know is Ted Widmer, who was one of Bill Clinton's speech writers and was a key aide to Clinton in writing his memoir, My Life.

Today, at 12:15 pm EST, I will STREAM LIVE Widmer's talk about the roots and contours of American foreign policy that he discusses in his new book Ark of the Liberties: America and the World.

Widmer will address the early millennial religious ideologies that played heavily in the formation of America's perceptions of itself and place in history. He will talk about the fusion of this millennial fervor with nationalist sentiments that manifested themselves in the American Revolution and then such movements as Manifest Destiny -- and hopefully, he'll discuss the gap that so often has existed between America's professed ideals and its often contradictory behavior.

I'll be chairing the meeting and hope you find Widmer's work as fascinating as I do. Ted Widmer, besides serving as a Senior Research Fellow in the New America Foundation's American Strategy Program, is Director of the John Carter Brown Library at Brown University.

-- Steve Clemons

Ari Melber has just written a great summary just out in the Washington Independent on the surge of concern across the blogosphere about an Obama/Bayh ticket.

One of the most interesting parts of the piece, other than his offhand comment about me that I am "a former Democratic Senate aide who sometimes traffics in Washington rumors" (they are good rumors! -- and I now run the foreign policy and economic policy divisions of a significant think tank -- the senate stuff was a decade ago), is his link to a Jeffrey Goldberg Atlantic article that ran recently, "Evan Bayh, Iran Hawk."

Melber highlights an important slice of Bayh's "tilting towards war now and then" attitude in the Goldberg piece:

You just hope that we haven't soured an entire generation on the necessity, from time to time, of using force because Iraq has been such a debacle. That would be tragic, because Iran is a grave threat. They're everything we thought Iraq was but wasn't. They are seeking nuclear weapons, they do support terrorists, they have threatened to destroy Israel, and they've threatened us, too.

We don't need another Vice President who thinks that conflicts are great ways to define and sculpt presidencies. We've had enough of that.

-- Steve Clemons

Well, not quite. . .but Max Bernstein just launched this Facebook affinity aversion page by the same name.

I was signatory #75, but the list is comprised of some of the most powerful progressive bloggers and activists in the United States.

-- Steve Clemons

Word has reached me that at Barack Obama's Hawaii retreat, Evan Bayh's chances to find himself the next Democratic VP candidate have moved to better than 50/50.

The conflict between Georgia and Russia has been one of several factors that has helped boost his status. Bayh's support of the Iraq War and general hawkishness are seen by some as a balance to Obama's call for a new and different kind of global engagement strategy that McCain's followers consider naive.

I could make a case why Bayh might make sense for the Obama ticket -- but it would be an intellectual case based on regional politics and an olive branch to some Hillary Clinton supporters, not one of passion. Recently, I wrote about Birch Bayh, Evan's magnificent father, the other day who has led on women's rights, civil rights, and civil liberties protections in ways that Evan, the son, hasn't come close to matching.

But just stating that the son doesn't yet fill the shoes of the father won't seriously handicap Bayh in Barack Obama's estimation.

So, i want to open the door to others to share their views.

In a constructive, civil manner, share with readers -- and with the Obama campaign -- why you think Evan Bayh SHOULD NOT BE or SHOULD BE Senator Obama's running mate.

What turns you on? What turns you off? Again, be civil, please.

I'll start with my own:

1. Why Bayh Should Not Be VP -- In contrast to his indefatigable, passionate, and legislatively masterful father, Evan Bayh's approach to policy and politics comes off as flat and squeezes the air, sizzle, and enthusiasm out of the Obama balloon -- a balloon that has already been deflating somewhat as Michael Tomasky conveyed in the Washington Post this last Sunday.

Look forward to your views pro and con. . .

-- Steve Clemons

This is a rush transcript of a hard-headed exchange between Nixon Center President Dimitri Simes and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke moderated by Margaret Warner.

This transcript is published by permission of the "News Hour with Jim Lehrer."

GWEN IFILL INTERVIEWS VITALY CHURKIN, AND MARGARET WARNER INTERVIEWS DIMITRI SIMES AND RICHARD HOLBROOKE FOR "THE NEWSHOUR WITH JIM LEHRER"

MARGARET WARNER, PBS Anchor
DIMITRI SIMES, The Nixon Center
RICHARD HOLBROOKE, Former U.S. Ambassador

Some insiders close to Barack Obama tell me that I will hear definitively who the VP choice is before the campaign sends out its "text message" to the nation about who the vacationing candidate decides on. Who knows if they'll come through. I'd pretty much settle on hearing who Obama definitively does not select.

That said, the campaign is offering to notify you first. . .officially. The campaign is going to send email and cell phone text messages to any who want to be on the distribution roster.

You can sign up here: http://my.barackobama.com/vpfirst

Alternatively, you can text VP to 62262 to receive a text message on your mobile phone.

Just a recommendation from The Washington Note to Team Obama: Why not send the news as a twitter comment too?

-- Steve Clemons

Dimitri Simes, President of the Nixon Center, will be paired with former Ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke on the News Hour tonight.

Margaret Warner will moderate a discussion that I think may be one of the most hard-hitting encounters framing the Russia-Georgia conflict and its implications for the US, Europe, and NATO.

The session featuring Simes, Holbrooke and Margaret Warner will start at approximately 15 minutes into the hour -- or at roughly 7:15 pm EST if watching the News Hour in Washington, D.C.

-- Steve Clemons