Center for a New American Security Co-Founder and CEO Kurt Campbell has finally been sworn in today as Barack Obama's Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs, the position most recently held by the newly appointed US Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Hill.

Senator Sam Brownback had a hold on Campbell for a very long time -- and I was working on a blog post preparing to blast the Kansas Senator for his irresponsibility in holding up this nomination and for allowing a simmering cauldron on the Korean Peninsula to near dangerous levels without an Asst Secretary of State in place to focus attention on what was going on there.

Fortunately, I no longer need to do this -- and Campbell, whose spouse is the Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs nominee Lael Brainard, can now give the misbehaving North Korea leadership some of the American attention it craves so much.

North Korea will continue to be a mess -- but it is vital to have someone focused on what is really happening there. I have been a fan of some of our Korea handlers in the past -- like Evans Revere who now heads the Korea Society in New York, Ambassador Stephen Bosworth who heads the Fletcher School at Tufts and is now a part time North Korea envoy, Christopher Hill who is now in Baghdad, and now Kurt Campbell.

This is a vital region that more than anything else needs high level American attention and involvement -- and until this swearing in ceremony today of Kurt Campbell, the Obama administration was not giving enough of either.

-- Steve Clemons

Former Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman has just given short, but gracious, concession remarks issuing greetings to Minnesota's next US Senator, Al Franken.

Congratulations Al! This is a nice bit of news to get before flying off to Rome.

-- Steve Clemons

A good friend and neighbor in Colorado just sent this in to me. I happen to own the hill and ridge pictured -- and plan someday to have a house there, just about where the rainbow hits land.

Congrats to Al Franken who is nearly there! And like everyone else, I'm pretty darn impressed with Jenny Sanford on her life perspective.

Now off to Rome, where Cicero more than anyone else laid out what checks and balances rule really involves. Today, the American government has helped promulgate the notion that mobocracies and ballotocracies are democracy -- and that's just wrong.

America has gone so off the rails, to paraphrase George Soros, and is not yet back on the right rails that it needs to get its own democracy in order before pontificating as my colleague Andres Martinez does about promulgating and trying to compel democratic practices elsewhere.

-- Steve Clemons

For a few days, I have been doing some exploratory work on a book and needed to take a few days break from TWN to clear my mind.

I am off to Rome, Italy today. I will be blogging over the next couple of weeks -- but so will a number of other of my colleagues who are going to pick up some of the slack while I'm traveling and on a partial vacation.

If you are in Rome during the next few days, I'll be over walking up and down Palatine Hill -- exploring all of the cool stuff that Anthony Everitt writes about.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

President Eisenhower and Cuban President Batista meet in Panama.

Patrick Doherty directs the New America Foundation/U.S.-Cuba 21st Century Policy Initiative.

One of the most difficult communications challenges for President Obama will be overcoming America's history of ideological hypocrisy. In his speech in Cairo, Mr. Obama started down this path, recognizing that our own history in the Middle East, such as the invasion of Iraq and the coup against the popularly-elected Iranian government of Mossadegh, was less than stellar. Indeed, whenever the United States has intervened on behalf of democracy and everyday human rights, our efforts have generally made things worse. Iraq, Grenada and Vietnam come readily to mind. The premature elections in Palestine and the failed 50-year old embargo on Cuba are also examples. Democracy is an organic and indigenous political condition and cannot be imposed by intervention or isolation.

Now we are confronted with the reality of a military-backed parliamentary coup in Honduras. The United States, Cuba, Venezuela and many others all condemn the coup and, citing the Inter-American Democratic Charter, call for the restoration of the old president, Manuel Zelaya. Some critics, like my own colleague Andres Martinez, believe that this is the proper reaction.

Of course, nothing in politics is black and white. The problem is that Zelaya was, arguably, himself in the process of making Honduras less democratic and, after he refused to abide by the decisions of the Honduran Supreme Court, the Legislature asked the military to intervene to preserve democracy.

And that explains why Hugo Chavez and Barack Obama are taking the same position on the coup. For Obama, the coup is a breach of the rule of law. For Chavez, the coup is a defeat of a fellow leftist ally who just a few weeks ago in Honduras with Chavez, led an effort to ignore that same Democratic Charter and fully reinstate Cuba into the OAS.

Unfortunately, my friend and colleague, smelling fresh hypocrisy, takes the bait. Regional leaders, the argument goes, cannot have it both ways without 'rolling back' democratic gains:

...Some of the very same regional players now urging a united front on behalf of democracy in Honduras are the same leaders who in recent months have been eager to embrace Cuba and give the tropical gulag nation a pass on its lack of democracy and basic civil liberties, citing explicit principles of nonintervention and implicit nostalgia for anti-gringo revolutionary lore.

If this were a debate and if democracy were the main issue facing the people of Latin America, then such arguments would have merit. But the simple fact is that this is not a debate, rather, U.S. policy towards Latin America anchors a tragically dysfunctional relationship. And democracy is far from the top issue, taking a back seat to the hemisphere's unsatisfied need for economic inclusion and, increasingly, environmental sustainability.

In fact it is the anachronism of ideological purity that hits the wrong note here. Standing up for democracy above all else in Latin America, just like standing up for democracy in the Middle East in recent years, amounted to twisted justification for supporting illiberal, generally right-wing dictators, whether it was Batista in Cuba or Pinochet in Chile. What was needed by the people in Cuba, Chile, in Central America and elsewhere was justice and a measure of peace. But for most of the 20th Century, with almost no exceptions, whether your government was right wing or left wing mattered little; none could deliver what the vast majority of the people so desperately desired.

And the United States cared very little. We supported our dictators with money, guns and spies so long as they stayed on our side in the East-West conflict and kept the oil, bananas and coffee moving north. That was what Containment demanded. We were leaders of the the free world and at the same time paymasters for many of the world's dictators.

So for the United States to talk about hypocrisy in Latin America rings hollow and misses the point. The task before the United States in Latin America is to restore trust by proving to the people of the hemisphere, in our deeds, that we understand that ideological labels matter nothing if, at the end of the day the people's basic needs and aspirations are not met.

In the twenty years since the end of the Cold War U.S. policy has failed on that score. Where Latin America has improved, such as in Brazil or Chile, they have done so despite the policies of the United States. But for too many of the region's people, economic survival is impossible at home and they are forced to migrate to work in the fields and factories of the United States.

What the leaders of the region have now told President Obama is simple: you say you want a new relationship with the Hemisphere. So do we. First, however, you must prove to us you have changed, that you will no longer treat Latin American nations as your playthings. And the test will be Cuba. End the embargo and we will talk.

Hypocrisy in Hemispheric relations is nothing new and the United States has for decades been the most prolific purveyor of such hypocrisy. What is needed is proof, in concrete actions, that the era of American hypocrisy is over. Standing up for the rule of law in Honduras is fine and good. But it is important here to realize that getting the speck out of our neighbor's eye is secondary to getting the plank out of our own.

-- Patrick Doherty

On Sunday the Honduran military ousted President Manuel Zelaya hours before the country was to vote on his referendum to extend presidential term limits. President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton were quick to speak, but slow to draw conclusions.

Clinton's carefully chosen words condemn the coup, but offer no specific support for President Zelaya, "As we move forward, all parties have a responsibility to address the underlying problems that led to yesterday's events in a way that enhances democracy and the rule of law in Honduras. To that end, we will continue working with the OAS and other partners to construct a process of dialogue and engagement that will promote the restoration of democratic order, address the serious problems of political polarization in Honduras, restore confidence in their institutions of government, and ensure that Honduras moves successfully towards its scheduled presidential elections in November of this year."

I always side with democracy. But in the immediate aftermath of this coup it's difficult to say exactly which side is democratic. President Zelaya's would be referendum was explicitly against the Honduran constitution, yet he insisted on moving ahead with the vote against the wishes of the nation's Supreme Court, Congress, and military. Perhaps his power grab was buoyed by the success of his friend Hugo Chavez' February referendum to end presidential term limits in Venezuela. Zelaya was certainly acting undemocratic, but there's a right way and a wrong way to contain an overreaching leader; forcing him out of the country at gunpoint is certainly the wrong way. This is a tough call to make; one illegal act countered by another. The Obama administration must walk a fine line, their democracy agenda could be prematurely formed by their reaction to Honduras' coup. For now they are taking the collaborative (and perhaps safest) route by vowing to work with the Organization of American States rather than take the lead.

The concern for Latin America, expressed by Obama and Chavez alike, is that this coup signals a return to military influenced politics which the region has worked so hard to free itself of. As President Lula de Silva of Brazil stated in a radio address this afternoon, "We in Latin America can no longer accept someone trying to resolve his problem through the means of a coup."

-- Faith Smith

Atlantic Council Senior Fellow David L. Phillips has an excellent post at the New Atlanticist blog explaining the emerging strategic partnership between Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil, Iraq.

Phillips explains:

Turkey's military strikes against the PKK in northern Iraq were a tactical and political success. Applying military pressure catalyzed Ankara's decision to offer Iraqi Kurdistan political and economic rewards in exchange for cooperation against the PKK, a U.S.-listed terrorist organization that Turkey holds responsible for 30,000 deaths since 1984. As a result, Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan are fast becoming indispensible strategic partners collaborating commercially, working together on energy development, and strengthening security cooperation.

But both Ankara and Erbil are engaged in delicate balancing acts. The Turkish government is trying to reap the economic benefits of a prosperous, energy-exporting Iraqi Kurdistan without providing the basis for Kurdish independence or threatening its friendly relations with Prime Minister Maliki's government in Baghdad, which believes that it should govern the oil-rich province.

At the same time, the KRG wants to consolidate its control of northern Iraq without risking an armed confrontation with Maliki's security forces.

For the past several years, the United States has persuaded the KRG to refrain from making any aggressive moves that would compel Baghdad to respond with force - but the U.S. is losing leverage as it withdraws its combat troops.

The KRG recently adopted a new constitution that officially lays claim to the oil-rich province, an indication that the KRG is prepared to assume a bolder posture. The new constitution has already raised fears among Kirkuk's Arab and Turkmen populations and earned harsh rebukes from Baghdad.

How the Ankara-Erbil-Baghdad triangle evolves will be one of the developments to follow closely as U.S. combat troops withdraw from Iraqi cities this week.

For background on the relationship between Turkey and Iraqi Kurds, check out this excellent International Crisis Group report.

-- Ben Katcher

(This picture from November 2004 depicts then UK Ambassador to Iran Sir Richard Dalton and Iran's then top nuclear negotiator Hasan Howhani)

During my recent trip to London where I spoke at a forum organized by intellectual wunderkind G. John Ikenberry through the triad of the Princeton Project on National Security, Newsweek, and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), I was privileged to be on a panel with Newsweek Middle East regional expert Christopher Dickey, RUSI Professorial Fellow Malcolm Chalmers, and Chatham House Middle East expert and former UK Ambassador to Iran Richard Dalton.

Dalton is in Washington TODAY and speaking at the New America Foundation at a session I am chairing. The title of the event is "Iran: What Matters Now?"

If you are local and what to attend, please just sent me an email. The event will take place between 12:30 pm and 1:30 pm EST and will STREAM LIVE here at The Washington Note.

-- Steve Clemons

I know this is not a political or foreign policy matter -- but news has just broken that Michael Jackson has died of heart attack (according to current reports) at the age of 50.

No matter the controversies, I grew up on many of his songs.

Condolences also to the family, friends, and fans of the iconic Farah Fawcett who also died today from a two and a half year struggle with cancer.

-- Steve Clemons

A couple of things to bring to the attentions of friends of TWN.

At 4:30 pm EST today, I'll be talking about Iran on the Michelangelo Signorile Show.

Yesterday, I had an interesting and substantive short discussion with To the Point's Warren Olney.

And this bit by Thomas Kaplan just came out in Vanity Fair on Obama, Iran, and invites to 4th of July parties.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

Washington is all about networking. Attach yourself to someone famous and well-connected, book their flights, get them coffee, take the blame for their mistakes, write for their blog, etc. - and in exchange they introduce you to their friends, sign letters of recommendation that you write for yourself, and do you a favor or two.

Perhaps nothing proves the power of those favors more than Young Professionals in Foreign Policy, an impressive non-profit of nearly 5,000 members in four cities that organizes networking events, public service programs, and policy forums all for the purpose of "fostering the next generation of foreign policy leadership."

Seriously, YPFP has become THE group for young foreign policy professionals in Washington. YPFP's best, brightest, and most attractive men and women will be on display at YPFP's "Affairs of State" 2nd Annual Date Auction and Concert this Friday, June 26 at 9 pm at the City Tavern Club.

Check out below the impressive list of foreign policy luminaries who have offered to participate in YPFP's silent auction. You can submit your bid to have lunch with any of these people by filling out this form.

Ambassador Paul Bremer, former U.S. Presidential Envoy and Administrator in Iraq
The Honorable Harold Brown, 14th Secretary of Defense
The Honorable Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor
Elizabeth Bumiller, National Affairs Correspondent for the New York Times
The Honorable R. Nicholas Burns, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Steve Clemons, Publisher, The Washington Note, and director of the American Strategy Program, New America Foundation
Steve Coll, President and CEO of New America Foundation, and Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and writer
The Honorable Paula Dobriansky, Former Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs, U.S. Department of State, and Former Special Envoy to Northern Ireland
The Honorable Lee Hamilton, President, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and former Vice-Chair of the 9/11 Commission
Jennifer Hillman, Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, and former Commissioner on the U.S. International Trade Commission
The Honorable Carla A. Hills, former U.S. Trade Representative, and Chairman and CEO of Hills & Co.
The Honorable John Hamre, President, Center for Strategic and International Studies, and former Deputy Secretary of Defense
Lieutenant General Patrick M. Hughes, former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and Vice President of Intelligence & Counterterrorism, L-3 Communications Corporation
The Honorable Mary Beth Long, Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
Dr. John Nagl, President, The Center for a New American Security
Richard Perle, former Chairman of the U.S. Defense Policy Board
The Honorable Thomas R. Pickering, former U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs
Dr. Paul Pillar, former National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia
John Prendergast, co-founder of The Enough Project
Tom Ricks, contributing editor of Foreign Policy Magazine & bestselling author of Fiasco
Dr. Stephen Walt, Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government
Senator John Warner, retired Senator from Virginia, and former Chairman, Committee on Armed Services
General Anthony C. Zinni, former Commander in Chief of U.S. CENTCOM, former Presidential Envoy, and Chairman and Acting President & CEO of BAE Systems

If you have any questions, please contact date.auction@ypfp.org

-- Ben Katcher

Patrick Doherty directs the New America Foundation/U.S.-Cuba 21st Century Policy Initiative.

"Strangulation is no solution." That's General Barry McCaffrey's assessment of the U.S. policy towards Cuba. He's right.

More importantly, writing in the Miami Herald, McCaffrey, a decorated Vietnam veteran, hero of Desert Storm and, more relevant to this discussion, former commander, U.S. Southern Command, finally gets to the endgame on Cuba policy.

His prescription is straightforward: U.S. policy has failed, Cuba is changing, and we need to clear out the Cold War-era policies and position ourselves to become "a constructive guiding agent in this process of change."

His list of particulars is refreshingly decisive:

* Remove Cuba from the State Department list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.
* Repeal enforcement of the ''Helms-Burton'' legislation.
* End the economic embargo on Cuba.
* End U.S. restrictions on travel by American citizens to Cuba.
* Close the detention facility at Guantanamo and return the base to Cuban sovereignty.
* End the ''Wet Foot/Dry Foot immigration policy'' and treat illegal immigrants from Cuba as we do those from Mexico or any other country.
* Formalize coordination on anti-drug trafficking matters with Cuba's law enforcement and security forces.
* Provide significantly increased funds to the U.S. Agency for International Development so that we can support economic development as democratic political transition inevitably occurs in Cuba.
* End U.S. opposition to Cuban participation in the Western Hemisphere multilateral fora...

General McCaffrey's position on Cuba would, if implemented, transform U.S. relations with the nations of Latin America and create the conditions for the people of Cuba to judge their government's performance without interference from Washington.

Unfortunately, the politics of Washington are slow to recognize the imperatives of diplomacy. The more leaders like Gen. McCaffrey stand up to be counted, however, the sooner the politics in this town will change.

-- Patrick Doherty

(Washington Note publisher Steve Clemons, Obama political guru David Axelrod, and Al Jazeera's Mysa Khalaf)

Yesterday evening, I chaired a dinner featuring Austan Goolsbee, the charismatic economic guru of Barack Obama's presidential campaign and a key adviser to the President in the White House. The meeting was off the record -- fascinating and insightful, but off the record. Just keep in mind that there are 6-8 million vacant homes out there. Not good.

What wasn't off the record at the dinner was my conversation with Wall Street Journal White House correspondent Jonathan Weisman who, like me, has been frustrated with senior White House officials apparently sending inconsistent messages about some important policy questions.

Weisman made the point that listening to Barack Obama, he seemed to be saying that America's relations with Iran would be bounded by questions about what international norms Iran chose to abide by or ignore. In other words, Weisman was reading the Obama tea leaves and heard that America was going to reinstitute "conditionality" in the terms of its engagement with Iran.

Shortly before I chatted with Jonathan Weisman, I heard David Axelrod's exchange with Wolf Blitzer on CNN's The Situation Room who while at first appropriately saying that Iran's domestic turmoil was about a key struggle within Iran over its soul and direction and not about the United Sates, then said:

AXELROD: Well, I will just repeat what the president said today. All of this is now in the hands of the Iranians. They can choose to isolate themselves from the world through their behavior, or they can try and develop relationships. And we will await -- we will wait and see what they do.

This sounds like conditionality on our engagement with Iran to me -- but perhaps I am working too hard at trying to understand what the real meaning of David Axelrod's statement is.

Jonathan Weisman called a senior national security adviser close to Barack Obama who allegedly said that there is no change in America's course to engage Iran. No change in policy. No conditionality.

If the senior White House adviser knows the definitive truth of the situation, I am glad -- because I agree with that policy position.

But one has to admit that David Axelrod's comments -- and even those of the President at a minimum flirt with the "conditionality" issue of future US talks with Iran -- and that if we did take such a course, we will miss any opportunity to engineer a strategic shift in America's relations with Iran, which happens to be right up near the top of America's strategic priorities right now.

-- Steve Clemons

Mousavi. No. . .Ahmadinejad. No. Mousavi. . .No. . .

-- Steve Clemons

Commentary on Iran's election fallout from the greater Middle East has been eerily absent for the past eleven days. The wait-and-see posture has been adopted by the region's leaders and civil groups alike; respectively they are nervous and hopeful. Just as Iran's 1979 revolution reverberated throughout the region, a democratic one today would inspire students and activists in countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. I reached out to an Egyptian friend and pro-democracy writer, Khalil Al-anani for his thoughts on Iran's political crisis and the repercussions for the rest of the region.

On the nature of Iran's crisis...
"First, I would say that this crisis is mainly between Ali Khamenei and Hashemi Rafsanjani over the post of Fakih (Islamic Jurist), not between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi. Of course the fuel of the current resistance is youth and reformists but the question is: Is this conflict targeting "wilayat al faqih" theory and the need to develop and change it or a political one targeting the authorities of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad? I would say the goal is mainly political even it takes a religious shape."

Will the turmoil have a lasting impact on Iran?
"I think that this crisis is a turning point in Iran and the region, not only because it's the first real challenge since 1979, but also because its consequences for the Islamist movements in the Middle East. Now, what will be the solution? There are two possible outcomes: either Khamenei will have to call for another election or Rafsanjani will have to eliminate and diminish Khamenei authorities. And between both of these two scenarios, there is a possibility to give Mousavi a significant post in the hierarchy of the regime."

What does this mean for Egypt?
"For Egypt, I would say that we are a more open society than Iran and we have more freedom of expression. Egypt might witness something like what's happening now in Iran within the next five years or less. We have similar economic, social, and demographic situations."

I'm intrigued by Khalil's insinuation that what we've witnessed over the past eleven days is just the beginning of momentous changes for the region. Perhaps he is right that Iran's politics will change significantly moving forward and maybe Egypt will follow suit in the near future. But, the only wise thing for us to do is watch this drama, dare I say revolution, unfold before our eyes and hope for the best.

-- Faith Smith

Niko Karvounis is a policy analyst at the New America Foundation/Next Social Contract Initiative.

For the last few months, many discussions about the recession have centered on the supposed emergence of "green shoots," or incipient signs of economic recovery. But now even the optimists must admit that the seemingly positive recent developments haven't initiated a sustained recovery.

Consider a story from yesterday's Washington Post, "Recovery's Missing Ingredient: New Jobs," which rightly points out that - for all the stock market bounces and better-than-expected bank profits - the economy continues to hemorrhage jobs. The Post story speaks to the fact that, due to the nature of this recession, we'll see persistently high unemployment for a good many months even as other economic indicators such as GDP and inflation settle into desirable levels.

There are a many reasons for such a "jobless recovery," including the breakneck pace of job loss we've seen during this recession, rising productivity that allows firms to maintain output while hiring fewer workers, and fundamental economic changes (such as the implosion of the auto industry and financial sectors) which necessitate additional time to relocate and retrain workers.

Making things worse is the fact that unemployment is concentrated in productive sectors like manufacturing, the very industries that we need to grow in order to move away from a precarious, consumption-based economy.

For an in-depth analysis of the jobless recovery and what it means for our economic future, the New America Foundation/Smart Globalization Initiative will host an event tomorrow from 1:00 pm - 2:15 pm on Capitol Hill.

The event will feature Senator Sherrod Brown, Chairman of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Economic Policy (D-OH) and Leo Hindery, Jr., Chairman of the New America Foundation/Smart Globalization Initiative, who will discuss the jobless recovery, its threat to our long-term economic health, and potential solutions.

You can also check out the New America Foundation/Economic Growth Program's recently published report on the subject.

-- Niko Karvounis

Afshin Molavi astutely noted yesterday in New America's debate on the Iranian election aftermath that some of the most important events took place prior to the election - that is, during the electoral debates where Ahmadinejad took on the clerical establishment accusing them, with Rafsanjani as the symbol, of a self-interested betrayal of the revolution.

Stratfor's George Friedman appears to concur arguing the real divide now is not between the reformers and revolutionaries but between the old guard clergy and Ahmadinejad's new guard including major security services (but also backed by some hardline clergy like Ayatollah Yazdi), while the twittering classes are a much smaller faction and pawn in the bigger battle of elites. Friedman writes:

The clerics are divided among themselves, but many wanted to see Ahmadinejad lose to protect their own interests. Khamenei, the supreme leader, faced a difficult choice last Friday. He could demand a major recount or even new elections, or he could validate what happened. Khamenei speaks for a sizable chunk of the ruling elite, but also has had to rule by consensus among both clerical and non-clerical forces. Many powerful clerics like Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani wanted Khamenei to reverse the election, and we suspect Khamenei wished he could have found a way to do it. But as the defender of the regime, he was afraid to. Mousavi supporters' demonstrations would have been nothing compared to the firestorm among Ahmadinejad supporters -- both voters and the security forces -- had their candidate been denied. Khamenei wasn't going to flirt with disaster, so he endorsed the outcome.

I find this a bit curious as the IRGC and Basij are often depicted as loyal to and under the command of the Supreme Leader. But this account suggests that Khamenei must vie for their support and be concerned about their defection, adding another layer of palace intrigue. During the 1979 revolution, the IRGC was set up by the insurgent clerics as a parallel security force, ostensibly to safeguard them and the revolution, in part from the untrustworthy Iranian military that retained loyalties to the Shah. Now it seems the force they created has the potential to turn on them.

What's puzzling to me then is why the clerical elites, in theory sitting atop the theocratic hierarchy, cannot rhetorically outflank and denounce Ahmadinejad and his ilk as the real threat to the Islamic republic and the revolution. Perhaps he has more artfully and successfully appropriated the mantle of the revolution or perhaps - what I think Friedman is suggesting -- because they clerics are worried Ahmadinejad actually commands the backing of a committed, pious, and possibly armed plurality of Iranians. After all the IRGC is at least one-tenth the strength of the Iranian military, though with a larger share of resources, and the Basij loyalists (if not actual trained reservists) compose 20% of the Iranian population.

-- Sameer Lalwani

The Washington Note has just received word that in a short while, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will announce that two Iranian diplomats stationed in the Iran Embassy to the United Kingdom will be expelled.

According to a British diplomat with whom I spoke, the UK government regrets this decision but it is the only appropriate response after Iran announced yesterday that it was expelling two British diplomats from Tehran.

The British diplomat expressed "disappointment" in this turn of events and emphasized that the UK wanted "a constructive relationship" with Iran -- and that engagement has been the standing policy of the Prime Minister and of British Foreign Secretary David Miliband.

-- Steve Clemons

I appeared on Rachel Maddow's NBC show tonight discussing my recent blog post, "The Four Iran Scenarios and 'Basiji Hunting.'"

Thanks to those inside Iran who have shared their observations on communities doing what they can to fight back against the basij terror raids.

-- Steve Clemons

Significant differences of opinion today - but a civil discussion nonetheless at this New America Foundation/American Strategy Program forum on the Iran Elections.

Featured speakers were:

Ken Ballen President, Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion Author, "Iranians Want More Democracy," CNN, June 16, 2009

Steve Clemons
Director, American Strategy Program
New America Foundation
Publisher, The Washington Note

Flynt Leverett
Director, Geopolitics of Energy Initiative
New America Foundation
Author, "Ahmadinejad won. Get over it," Politico.com, June 15, 2009

Afshin Molavi
Fellow, New America Foundation
Author, The Soul of Iran: A Nation's Journey to Freedom

Nader Mousavizadeh
Consulting Senior Fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies
Former Special Assistant to U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan
Author, "Option Ignore Ahmadinejad," Washington Post, June 18,2009

moderator
Nicholas Schmidle
Fellow, New America Foundation
Former Student, University of Tehran
Author, To Live or to Perish Forever: Two Tumultuous Years in Pakistan

-- Steve Clemons

Update: Here is a thoughtful piece at the Roosevelt Island blog sparked by the New America Foundation discussion today.

Also, here is a live twitter report of the New America Foundation event today as tweeted by the excellent Taylor Marsh. I particularly liked her last catch.

I will be appearing on MSNBC's Rachel Maddow Show tonight about 9:15 pm EST discussing with Rachel some of the things that protesters in Iran are doing to put the feared and violent basij security forces on edge and how some groups are organizing a capacity of domestic insurgency inside Iran.

This picture was snapped when Rachel Maddow was serving bar at "Rachel's" at the MSNBC After Party following the Radio and Television Correspondents Association Dinner Friday night with Barack Obama.

I get the photo credit.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

The events in Iran over the past week have raised a number of important and difficult questions. What is the source of Iranian discontent? What is the likely outcome of the protests?

Was the election fraudulent or not?

And, most importantly from an American perspective, What does all of this mean for American strategy?

Suffice it to say that there are multiple schools of thought inside the New America Foundation with one school led by Steve Clemons, Amjad Atallah, and Afshin Molavi -- and another on a different page with Flynt Leverett and Patrick Doherty. Parag Khanna is out there -- but may have a foot in both camps. Nader Mousavizadeh has a nuanced approach he's promoting called "Option Ignore Ahmadinejad" which tilts toward Clemons -- and Terror Free Tomorrow's Ken Ballen tilts toward Leverett and Doherty.

To discuss the ongoing events in Iran and address these questions, the New America Foundation is hosting an event TODAY from 3:30pm - 5:00 pm.

The complete roster of participants is below:

featured speakers

Ken Ballen
President, Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion
Author, "Iranians Want More Democracy," CNN, June 16, 2009

Steve Clemons
Director, American Strategy Program
New America Foundation
Publisher, TheWashingtonNote.com

Flynt Leverett
Director, Geopolitics of Energy Initiative
New America Foundation
Author, "Ahmadinejad won. Get over it," Politico.com, June 15, 2009

Afshin Molavi
Fellow, New America Foundation
Author, Persian Pilgrimages: Journeys Across Iran

Nader Mousavizadeh
Consulting Senior Fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies
Former Special Assistant to U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan
Author, "Option Ignore Ahmadinejad," Washington Post, June 18,2009

moderator
Nicholas Schmidle
Fellow, New America Foundation
Former Student, University of Tehran
Author, To Live or to Perish Forever: Two Tumultuous Years in Pakistan

-- Ben Katcher

Last week's summit of the so-called BRIC countries in Yekaterinburg, Russia was meant to celebrate the emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China as emerging economies and major players on the world stage. It is a bit ironic then, that this meeting was held in Russia, given the current state of that country's economy.

Perhaps no country has been hit harder by the financial crisis. After growing at an average annual rate of 7% between 1997 and 2008, Russia's economy contracted 9.5% in the first quarter, and is likely to run a budget deficit of at least 7.5% this year.

To make up for the shortfall, Russia has had to spend down its foreign currency reserve holdings, which have fallen to $406.6 billion from a high of $598.1 billion less than one year ago. Russia will also likely be compelled to resume borrowing on international markets for the first time since its sovereign default in 1998.

The sudden drop in oil and natural gas prices has exposed the limits of an economic model predicated on hydrocarbon exports.

To explore whether and how Russia's economy will emerge from the crisis, the New America Foundation is hosting an event TODAY from 1:00 pm - 2:30 pm. The event will feature the release of a new McKinsey Global Institute report, "Lean Russia: Sustaining Economic Growth Through Improved Productivity."

The event will feature McKinsey & Company Moscow Office Director Yermolai Solzhenitsyn, McKinsey Global Institute Chairman Lenny Mendonca, New America Foundation/Global Strategic Finance Initiative Director Douglas Rediker, and Akin Gump Senior International Advisor Toby T. Gati.

Steve Clemons will moderate the discussion, which will stream live here at The Washington Note.

Update: The full report is available here.

-- Ben Katcher

The New Yorker's Laura Secor has a richly detailed account of some complicated history that runs between Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Ali Khamenei. The whole piece should be read, but here's a key clip:

Mir-Hossein Moussavi, the Presidential contender whose legions of supporters have taken to the streets of Iranian cities, has a long and complex history with Khamenei. When Moussavi was Prime Minister, in the nineteen-eighties, he belonged to a faction known as the Islamic Left. It shared power with a rival faction, the Islamic Right, led by Khamenei, who was then the President. When Moussavi and Khamenei clashed, as they often did, the charismatic leader of the Islamic Revolution and the supreme leader of the country, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, intervened--most frequently on Moussavi's side.

So, in 1989, when Khomeini died and Khamenei replaced him as supreme leader, the Islamic Left was exiled to political purgatory. Moussavi did not lift his head in Iranian politics for twenty years. But during those years the rest of his Islamic Left faction, including Saeed Hajjarian, made one of the most dramatic turnabouts in Iran's political history. It abandoned its hard-line commitments in favor of an agenda of liberalization, freedom of expression, the relaxation of Islamic social codes, and friendlier dealings with the world. On the strength of this platform, in 1997, Khatami, who had been Moussavi's minister of culture, won the Presidency in a landslide. Parliament soon fell to the reformists, too. Although these elected officials were subordinate to Khamenei, Hajjarian believed that they could extend their reach by triangulating between the mass movement they represented and the autocratic state with which they shared power. He coined the phrase that would define the reformists' strategy: "Pressure from below, negotiation at the top."

That strategy failed. The pressure from below was for far-reaching democratic reform, which Khatami could not deliver within the confines of the constitution. Moreover, the authorities at the top were not interested in negotiating. A hundred independent newspapers and magazines opened, only to be forced to close; the Guardian Council vetoed much of the legislation passed by the parliament; and Khatami could not keep his inner circle out of prison, let alone the young people whose votes had won him the Presidency. By the time he left office, in 2005, the reformists had neither a credible leader nor a constituency. Activists and public figures called for a boycott of that year's election. What good was voting if a President with a broad popular mandate could still be controlled and stymied by unelected powers? What difference did it even make who was President?

A major one, as it turned out. Under Ahmadinejad, a crackdown on dissent forced scores of journalists, intellectuals, and activists to flee the country. Ahmadinejad centralized government, empowered the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards, flouted expert economic advice, and packed the ministries with ideological cronies. With few reformists permitted to run in the interim elections of 2006 and 2008, liberals and moderates had little recourse inside the political system. Iran seemed headed for a confrontation between irreconcilables: the forces for secular democracy and those for autocratic theocracy.

-- Steve Clemons

An anonymous student in Tehran who has been writing and speaking in the media under the name, "Shane M." has just sent in some more dispatches.

Dispatches from Iran -- sent 7:15 am, 22 June 2009

The Coward -- Saturday afternoon

I come out of the coffee-net and the first thing I see is the row of green and white police trucks lined up perpendicular to the square. I scan away toward the square itself and there behold an impressive sight: row after row of cops in riot gear. All of the maidoon is occupied, the four roads that led in and out marked at their corners by uniformed police wearing dark green. Inside the stone and grass plaza located in the central part of the square, a place where just a week ago Mousavi supporters had nightly gathered to chant and cheer, there are police in Robocop riot gear standing, waiting, looking back out towards the perimeter of the traffic circle.

"Az enqelab mirisim be azadi!" From Revolution we'll get to Freedom! The kid in the internet cafe had minutes earlier made a clever pun, referring to today's march from Revolution Square to Freedom Square. Saturday afternoon was to be a repeat of last Monday's millions but after the most recent Friday Prayers and the Leader's injunctions, the march had been called into doubt. Around 2 or 3 in the afternoon, there came word that another warning had just been issued to not come, that patience had run out. The kid was putting on a strong, defiant face.

Standing outside, looking at this show of force, his bravura and mine seemed silly. Power is about this. It is quickly becoming about place, about who can stand where and when.

Spooked, I walk away from the square and make my way home using alternate routes.

Back at my apartment, I realize that, like an idiot, I had left a newspaper (Karrobi's Etemaad Melli) with notes scribbled all over it (in English) in the internet cafe, source material for these dispatches. I go back to retrieve it, taking back alleys.

I call a few folks along the way, the cell phones for some reason are working, perhaps so that people can tell each other not to go to the march. That is more or less the message I received from my friends. It's becoming less and less worth it, only the fully committed to seeing this thing through would show and their numbers would no doubt be dwindling...

I go back, I get the paper. Time to make the return walk home again. I stiffen my spine, walk right into the circle, the newspaper curled up into my hand. I need to do this. I make a point of walking pass a row of the officers waiting at one corner of the plaza. I need to do this. Some are bored, others are keeping themselves busy with stupid things. They help each other strap and tighten their helmets, one taps his fingers against the top of his plastic shield. I see that one or two of the guys have on fashionable glasses, vestiges of their other life...

As I pass, I look them in the eye. Iranians in general stare. It took me a long time to realize that this habit wasn't antagonistic or "mad-dogging"...Fixed eye-contact is a normal thing, part curiosity and partly a way to size up the person walking towards them. A friend observes that Iranians have been lied to so much the only device left to them for ascertaining Truth is the zaher, or appearance. Like the ancient Greeks, the assumption is that the external reveals true character.

The cops look back at me with little interest.

I receive a very different response from the young basijis coming up the road. They show up after the police, in beige cammie trucks traveling in convoy. Today, under daylight, they emerge from whatever hole it is they hide in wearing uniforms to go with their oversized helmets (think Spaceballs).

Really, it's becoming more and more like the original Star Wars, by the end they were coming up with new uniforms for the same old Stormtroopers just to be able to market more action figures to punk kids like me. In the back of each transport truck a large red flag is flapping, casting yellow and green print of faith into the wind.

When I fix my eyes on them, the look is deadly, menacing.

Basijis. The lesser cousin of the police, they are more the serious of the two. For the cops it's a job, and so far at least their hearts don't seem to be into it. For these basijis, today's a hobby. They bring an enthusiasm to their "work" that only an ardent hobbyist can. A member of my family notes, This is their good time. They don't screw, they don't drink or smoke pot (bet you didn't know that went on in Iran), what else are they going to do with all of that energy? For 360 days of the year basijis don't do shit, but for those
5 days...

Ke chi bishe? What's the point? It feels so unnecessary. Every rally had been peaceful, folks had really done their best, truly taken great care to not antagonize. They deserved better than this. Delam vaghan misooze. My heart aches...

You notice the pronoun? Up until now the stories have been replete with "we" and "they," references to the collective. Feeling isolated, seeing nothing going on, I lose my nerve, I figure it's all over, I give up.

The Shit Hits the Fan -- Saturday evening, not yet sunset

The little guy was cracking himself up silly. "Moo...! Moo...! Akharesh shod...Mousavi!" I sat in the front of the shared taxi ride. The small boy wraps his hands around my headrest and repeats the chant. "Moo...! Moo...! Akharesh shod...Mousavi!" Moo...! Moo...! At the end it became Mousavi! His mom sitting in the back, her voice barely above a whisper, tells him, "Na azizam, aqasare agha ye Mousavi na shod..." No dear, at the end it did not...

The three of us, the adults in the car, groused about everything that was happening. Ba zoor hamichi ra mikhand...Yemosh havoon...They want everything by force...Animals...

We are on Sattar Khan Street, heading south towards Tohid Square, or Unity Square. Tohid, formerly known as Kennedy, was once an up-and-coming neighborhood, a fashionable enclave for young and newly-married couples to make their first move outside of their parents' home. Duplex-style housing from the mid and late 1970s still lines the street, the bottom floors of many now converted into offices and small shops. Later, in a different context, the area around Tohid would be where the first fast food joints opened up, some of the original pahtoghs, or hangouts. Though no longer unique in Tehran, on Thursday nights certain stretches and bends of Satter Khan above Tohid are full of cars filled with families. Tehran has elements of the small-town in America. For want of better options, diversions consist of cruising and hanging out at burger and ice cream joints late into the night.

The traffic was horrific. No one was moving. Cars stop, engines turn off, people get out to see what is happening. There is dark smoke ahead. We can see at least two helicopters circling above. I see families gathered on the rooftops, everyone is looking south towards the square. What has happened?

On the other side of the street comes a pack of protestors chanting. I didn't expect this. I was wrong. It is not over: "Marq bar diktator! Marq bar diktator!" Unable to move, the vehicles have effectively become the fixed seats of a street theater. With nowhere to go, drivers and their passengers get out, they stand up on the edge of their doors to take pictures with their mobile phones.

One of the marchers points across at us, her face screwed up in anger and frustration: "Hemayat, hemayat, Iraniane BIGHEIRAT!" Help, help, Iranians WITHOUT honor!

What's going on ahead? Why aren't we moving? Motorists coming back the other way tell us that Tohid is on fire, they've burned Cinema Bahman, they tell us to turn back, turn back. Our taxi driver, a young man sporting a beard ("I just grew it out so that they won't mess me!"), pulls a classic Tehran move and wheels the old Iranian-made Paykon 180 degrees. He cuts into an alley. Maybe we can get to Tohid this way. He's not the only one with this idea and as he pulls the car down towards the square we get stuck again, this time it's worse.

It's not looking good, cars are backing up and we're off the main road. Our driver gives up. "Sharmandam, I am deeply sorry, but I've got to go back home. Please, forget the fare, I'm so sorry..." The mom and her son get out, she tries to take his hand but he rushes forward between the cars, then stops. Karate stance.

Shit. I get out. Ahead I see a group of basijis. They are lined up against a wall, awaiting their orders. I notice that one holds a lead pipe at his side. The pipe is the length of his leg...

Can anyone help me? I am trying to find a way to Tohid. I want to go to Vali Asr. "Go that way, but I don't think that you''ll make it, Tohid is a mess, they say that they burned a 13 year old girl..." I keep cutting south. Cars that have come off of the main road and into the warren of this neighborhood remain stuck, not moving. I weave my way through the grid, leaning into windows, asking here and there how things are from where they've come. Agha, in var shoolooq e? Sir, is it safe? The answer is always, "Yes." I begin to worry...I don't know this neighborhood, I don't have anyone to take me in just in case, and it's getting close to sunset. I have to laugh. It's like a disaster and zombie movie all rolled up in one. I am Snake Plissken and Candide set off on my uncertain adventure...

I continue to cut south towards Tohid. The black smoke coming from Satter Khan and the square grows thicker, continues to climb into the pale evening light. The neighborhood that I am in is faring no better. At a corner I see an incredible sight, two street battles raging perpendicular to each other. I stand at their juncture. In one direction, at least three fiery heaps stretch out straight down the middle of the street, there is smoke everywhere, and beyond the haze a crowd of men marches towards a line of armed and waiting basijis...At the top of the street is the burned and tinny carcass of a motorcycle, a basiji mount, its rider nowhere to be found...

To my left, at the end of the street, another group of young men face off against the paramilitaries. They show no fear, the chants come faster and faster...

I turn back. This is not going to work, I need to get back home.

Back on Satter Khan, now heading north, it only gets worse. It's really an unbelievable scene. Every 50 to 100 meters there is a confrontation or a fire, people are chanting, they are defiant. And in between there are the cars, in both directions just sitting there, not moving, engines off. Everyone is out and watching. This has become an accidental march. Everyone, without planning to, has taken the side of protest.

What are they going to do with all of these people? What's going to happen when the cops pour in? I wonder. These people can't move. At bus stops I see citizens sitting on the benches and railings, either waiting for the bus or hanging around until the commotion passes. One old lady is peeling oranges and sharing with her husband and the others seeking refuge inside of the shelter. Car horns up and down the road are honking, nearly in unison, "doot-doot-de-doot-doot, doot-doot-de-doot-doot." There is no let up.

Near Patrice Lumumba Street I stop to get something to drink. I've got several kilometers to go yet. Bottled water is out at all of the stores and kiosks. All that is left is Rani, a juice drink (with real but unnervingly way-too-big fruit chunks inside) and Delster, Iranian non-alcoholic beer. It's quite a sight, people kicking back a few brews, watchin' a riot, no
worries at all...

A pedestrian asks me what is happening further down the road, using the alliterative phrasing that Iranians are so fond of: "Bezan bezan hast?" "Na, bekosh bekosh." Is it hitting hitting going on? No, comes the answer from a man standing next to me, it's killing killing...

***********************************

Across from a police sub-station, officers stand poised with their plastic shields in front of them, facing north. Rocks are being thrown at them, one by one, then two by two. The officers stand their ground. I am on the other side of the street, watching. Two young men turn the corner and walk towards me. They are both eating chocolate-glazed donuts. I tell them, Bi khial, Wow, you two are really taking it easy! One of them answers, Come on man, gotta take care of the stomach first...

The rocks now start to rain in by the dozen and the police run. They rush to their motorcycles and hop on, flying south. Protesters pour down the street, a full assault. One of the officers awkwardly throws rocks back at his tormentors. Unable to get off a good shot he wheels towards us and throws in our direction and I, the Donut Brothers, and about 20 other people run away, around the corner.

******************************

This is a glimpse of what is to come. The decision to prevent people from marching calmly and peacefully through the squares and main boulevards has thrown the action into the kuches and mahals of Tehran. It's gone into the neighborhoods, the alleys and corners of where people permanently live, not the public squares and intersections that they occasionally pass through.

You have to understand the importance of the "kuche" or alley if you want to understand Tehran, especially now. Sar e kuche, too ye kuche, boro kuche...the beginning and end of everyday life happens in a kuche, the alley.

"Alley" as it is used here isn't the same as what we might imagine in the U.S., the dark and dangerous spaces of New York, for instance, where bad things happen. Back in the day, neighborhoods consisted primarily of single-family homes, many with a hayat or yard with a central hoz, or fountain (the film "Children of Heaven" is a good depiction of what I'm talking about).

The buildings were close to each other and the kuche served as the shared ground between entrances. You had to walk down an alley to get home and the odds were that you would run into your neighbor along the way. Likewise, the alley provided a crude form of security. If someone had no business being there or was up to no good it would be immediately known...

Neighbors knew who belonged there. Years ago Tehran was like a live version of those black and white Italian movies from the 40s and 50s, neighborhoods were populated by men with colorful names: Behrooz Sibili (Moustache Behrooz), Ali Hezar Dawshi (Ali 10 Cents), Mahmad Damagh (Mahmad Nose), Jangir Khiki (Fat Jangir). Neighbors simultaneously spied on and looked after each other. A patriarchal code of honor, with all of its blessings and vices, held sway and woe onto the young man who wandered into the neighborhood. Hava ye ham digar ra dashtand. While this code has dimmed considerably because of shifts in demographic and housing patterns---more and more people live away from their families in apartment towers, the familiarity remains. As I noted in an earlier post, Tehran, despite its size, remains an intimate big city, the reason no doubt being that the base of social life outside of the family remains the kuche. Even if they don't personally know their neighbor nor care to, residents of a block will come to each other's aid when threatened from without (Asef Bayat's important book, "Street Politics" captures well what I am talking about).

The geography of Tehran's urban life is going to play a big role in the coming days and months. Every time the police manage to squeeze down on protestors on the main road, the kids run sideways and backwards into the criss-crossing alleys. It will be different now...

*********************************

Under a bridge a crowd is chanting. Half of a car is on fire and a host of people has gathered to watch. A fire truck shows up, the crowd hoots and whistles. They rush over and surround the truck. Do they want it to leave? Before I can figure it out the truck abandons the street.

*****************************************************

The walk is many kilometers and it takes me nearly two hours. Along the way there is wonderment. I smell freshly sliced cucumber. A young boy sits on a storefront stoop and sees about the business of eating folded flatbread with feta and cucumber. Kids on bikes race each other. Three boys walk past with me on the sidewalk with ping pong paddles, they are coming back from the park (Tehran's parks, like those of Paris, come equipped with ping pong tables). Satter Khan Park is filled with families and couples on blankets eating seeds and sharing tea. Many are enjoying traditional ice cream, Akbar Mashti made with pistachio and cardamom. There is a guy selling fish, a guy selling meat.

Old men stand outside their fruit stand. The car wash under Satter Khan Bridge continues its business. A father and his daughter come plodding down the sidewalk, three grocery sacks hangs between them, cucumbur, tomatoes, watermelons.

I finally make it to where I need to be. I spot a man selling DVDs. Iranians are notorious film buffs (a topic worthy of its own post) and before this ruckus began if you were to see a crowd gathered on the street in Tehran odds were they were buying up the latest Hollywood film, frequently while the picture was still in the theaters. I flip through the pile of plastic sleeves and choose "Night at the Museum, Part Two" and "Frost Nixon." How's business in all of this haye hoo, I ask the man? Eh, it's not bad, what can I say?

Don't you want to buy more, he asks me. No, this'll do...

******************************************************

That night, with reports coming in of the newly dead and wounded, they sang "Allah Akbar" with renewed verve. "ALLAH u AKBAR!!!! ALLAH u AKBAR!!!!" The calls had never been louder. We sit in the kitchen and listen. A girl's voice leads. Tonight she is without restraint. She doesn't wait for the response. Voices heave, swinging back and forth, call and response.

Natarsin! Natarsin! Ma hame ba ham hastim! Don't be scared! Don't be scared! We are all in this together...

-- Anonymous Student in Tehran, Shane M.

~ Mir Hossein Mousavi calls on his followers to not allow the government to steal the election and calls for more action. Juan Cole has posted a translation of Mousavi's letter.

~ Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has condemned the attacks on civilians and called for three days of mourning for them.

~ Arrests continue. No one has reported seeing either Mousavi or Rafsanjani out publicly today.

-- Steve Clemons

All students of revolutionary change should read Chalmers Johnson's epic work, Peasant Nationalism and Communist Power.

The book is about so much more than China. It provides one of the best templates ever written to understand that most revolutionary conflict in the modern age is rooted in competing frames of nationalism. I think this applies to Iran today -- in which Mousavi, Rafsanjani and their millions of supporters are competing to control the soul of their nation -- not to move necessarily towards Western style democracy but rather because their view of nationalism and Iran's pretensions as a great power differs from that of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad.

Another indispensable Chalmers Johnson masterpiece that all should read is An Instance of Treason: Ozaki Hotsumi and the Sorge Spy Ring.

Richard Sorge is acknowledged to be one of the most successful and consequential spies of all time -- able to convey to the Russians the exact date of Germany's "surprise" invasion.

But his key partner in crime in pre-WWII Japan was Asahi Shimbun journalist and China scholar Ozaki Hotsumi, who sat as a key advisor -- probably was the key adviser -- to Prince Konoe's government on China policy.

If one doesn't take a deep look a the triple layer chess approach to his objectives, Ozaki appears to be a bag of contradictions -- a China-lover who had a heavy hand in pushing Japan to unleash an incredible viciousness in its Occupation of key parts of China and its military assaults in the parts of China and Southeast Asia not under its control.

But Ozaki, who was a China hand fascinated by the country, was a Communist and wanted to achieve "transformative change." He wanted Japan to drastically radicalize the Chinese public and the whole of Asia so as the emotional and political ecosystem would be susceptible to Communist revolution.

In other words, he used Japan's military might to radicalize the Chinese public -- to lay the groundwork for revolution and change -- which he hoped would actually spread into Japan.

Otsumi's work largely succeeded -- and almost even succeeded in Japan.

Today, violence deployed by the machinery of Iran's state against its public is radicalizing them in ways that the Shah of Iran once did -- and in ways in which the American-supported coup against President Mossadegh did in 1953.

Radicalizing a nation is dangerous stuff -- and if the protesters win in Iran (which is still in great doubt) -- there is no guarantee at all that Iran will move towards a warm and friendly posture.

Khamenei has gambled in incredible ways -- pitting his and Ahmadinejad's version of national interests against other key Iran political stakeholders -- and while the security apparatus of the state appears to remain in Khamenei's hands, the people -- who are angry and feel violated -- seem to have abandoned the Supreme Leader.

If Khamenei falls in this attempt to further consolidate his power, those that lead Iran may use a new form of nationalism, even a more strident form of nationalism, to legitimate who and what they represent in the eyes of the Iranian people.

But radicalization and nationalism are now key parts of Iran's turmoil.

-- Steve Clemons

EyeRanProtestr is an example of a Twitter identity that is clearly being used by a pro-Khamenei/Ahmadinejad deployer of misinformation.

It's a remarkable line-up of statements, including the so-far false claim that Mousavi was arrested and that hooligan students are doing all the killing.

-- Steve Clemons

(cartoon credit: Jonathan Guyer of The Washington Note)

A short while ago, a space-obsessed friend sent me a CNN clip about what it would be like to fall into a black hole, in case I wanted to break up my Iran coverage with something else.

And then Simon Owens of Bloggasm sent me a genuinely interesting piece about his analysis of Iran election tweeting and re-tweeting. Specifically, he wanted to see over a fixed period of time, how many underlying "tweets" out of Iran were being re-tweeted by others and sent over the network.

The tweets have been overflowing -- and a lot is simply overdone. Owens discovered that on average an underlying tweet is re-tweeted 57 times.

Read more here.

-- Steve Clemons

A few years ago, I met then chief Iran nuclear negotiator and now Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani at the Arab Strategy Forum in Dubai.

I asked him about what his country's next moves would be with regard to its nuclear energy ambitions and whether or not Iran would finally accept and constructively work towards a round of deal-making in which its nuclear agenda and other interests could be brought into alignment in such a way as to lessen rather than increase global concerns.

Larijani's answer was short and memorable:

"You Americans play baseball. We in Iran play chess."

He went on with a bit more -- but essentially he implied that Iran was already on a constructive course, a smart course advancing its interests -- but that the United States was too immature and un-strategic to play in Iran's league and needed to improve.

Given the often keystones cops character of George W. Bush's foreign policy team -- and the nefarious intentions of an influential faction of the Bush team -- I have to say that I didn't entirely disagree with Larijani's characterization.

I recounted this story about Larijani shortly after at a dinner I chaired featuring then Saudi Ambassador to the US Prince Turki Al-Faisal, who for two decades headed Saudi intelligence.

I asked Prince Turki:

"Ali Larijani says we Americans play baseball and he and the Iranians play chess. What do you Saudis play?"

Prince Turki responded:

We play an ancient bedouin game, Massageel, involving throwing the knuckles of camels. . .

The Washington Post's David Ignatius exclaimed out loud:

Sounds like that beats chess!

Larijani is now publicly chastising some members of the Guardian Council for siding with "a certain presidential candidate" and holding bias in their consideration of public complaints about the election. His reference to the unnamed candidate is clearly Ahmadenijad -- which raises some really interesting questions about what role Larijani sees for himself in whatever next order is established in Iran.

On one hand, Larijani is a well known backer and ally of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. On the other hand, he is a political rival of (and known to be disgusted by) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Larijani has come out and raised questions about the "shameful" statements made by the United States, France, Germany, and Great Britain during the election -- calling for re-evaluation of Iran's ties to Europe. I don't take Larijani's comments criticizing these foreign countries seriously as this may be done simply to innoculate himself from accusations of being a tool of outsiders -- while at the same time raising fundamental questions about the legitimacy of the vote and the legitimacy of the Guardian Council itself.

So, perhaps Larijani is playing chess. Or perhaps he has learned some other games like the knuckle-throwing Massageel while hanging out around the broader Middle East.

And if Larijani wants some other camel and sheep knuckle options, I've been informed by Saudi friends that Alkeaba is pretty good.

Another recommended by a member of the Saudi royal family is Um tiss'ah, where two players have nine knuckles a piece and each tries to line up three on a drawn square on the sand that has lines drawn in it intersecting in such a way that players can only bring three knuckles in line with each other; a bit more complicated than tic tac toe -- but less painful than the other camel and sheep knuckle games.

-- Steve Clemons

Over the past week, a young student has been anonymously blogging about the momentous events inside Iran for The Washington Note. He has done an incredible service for those of us on the outside -- and some of his material has made it to the New York Times and NPR's All Things Considered, among other venues.

I had the privilege of running into NPR's Robert Siegel the other evening at the Radio and Television Correspondents' Association Dinner with Barack Obama the other night, and he commented on what a brave, captivating, and intelligent observer "Shane M." was in his discussion with him.

Many of you have been emailing asking for further dispatches and also wondering if Shane M. is OK. I too have been concerned about him over the last day.

This morning, I finally got a note from him and just wanted to share part of it:

From: Steven Clemons Date: Saturday, June 20, 2009 11:22 pm Subject:

> Are you OK???

From: XXXXXXX
Date: Sun 6/21/2009 7:35 AM
Subject: Re:

I am but am growing increasingly anxious...supposed to fly out tomorrow don't know if it's more risky to stay or to leave now in this environment of suspicion...any word from your side?

by the way, I was deeply embarrassed by your earlier message. you're too kind...thank you for getting the word out, you're doing a greater service than you can imagine.

if things go to shit, at least I'll have this pleasant memory to carry me through to the end...

He's not good at taking praise - but I think that anyone reading this blog and his dispatches owes Shane M. our thanks. He'll make the decision when he returns whether he wants to give up his anonymity or not.

-- Steve Clemons

Yesterday, I had a chat with a senior person at CNN who shared that nearly all of the major news organizations were having to work with Iran related video and other information being sent to them that was not as vetted as normal.

I know the feeling. Yesterday and today, there has been a great deal of Twitter traffic about embassies that were taking in injured protesters. The Canadians were under attack on Twitter for not taking in protesters until it was reported, again on Twitter, that the Canadians were looking for doctors to be able and help.

A high quality map of Tehran-based foreign embassies taking in those who needed help was distributed. I posted the link on my blog here at The Washington Note.

And then a counter campaign also appeared warning those injured to stay away from Embassies because the basij were waiting for them at the embassy entrances.

I now must publicly question the entire exchange over twitter. I did get my link to the embassy roster and map -- not from twitter -- but from a friend who is an Iranian diplomat that has been stationed in an Asian country. I don't think he maliciously sent be bad information, but I do think he may have recycled other material that was being pushed out through the new media.

The reason that I know this is that I had a note come to me from a senior staff member of the British Embassy to the United States -- who after seeing my blog and a similar reference on Huffington Post that the UK Embassy was taking in injured protesters contacted the Foreign & Commercial Office in London to confirm.

The British Foreign Ministry spoke directly to the British Ambassador in Tehran who said that the reports of the British Embassy taking in injured were incorrect. I would say fraudulent.

Iranian authorities supporting Ahmadenijad and Ayatollah Khamenei have been trying to blame the domestic turmoil on foreign governments. And one could imagine that even "taking in" those injured in a domestic crisis would be considered by the Iranian government as meddling.

On one hand, I was impressed by the Brits taking in the injured and thought it was a brave thing to do. Then, on the other, more privately -- I thought to myself that such an action could be twisted by the Iranian government and have serious diplomatic consequences.

So, I don't know who was misreporting on the Embassy issue -- and don't know if other Embassies are or are not taking in injured victims of state aggression.

All I know for certain is that what was reported on Twitter is in part false -- and that the British Embassy is not accepting injured people from the protests through its doors.

This intriguing story could be a case of "twitter fraud."

-- Steve Clemons

A few moments ago, author of Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S. and the Twisted Path to Confrontation and one of DC's best Iran experts Barbara Slavin wrote to me through Facebook and said:

steve, iran ceased being an islamic republic a week ago. now it's just another military dictatorship.

She is right. And given that collapse of legitimacy and the mystique of the Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and those who organized the head-crackers to assault Iran's citizens will probably have a fragile grasp on their lives from here on out.

The New York Times' Roger Cohen who has been braving the streets of Tehran today just filed a gripping account of today's events, but he too notes that Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, has lost "his aura."

From Cohen's piece which should be read in its entirety:

The Iranian police commander, in green uniform, walked up Komak Hospital Alley with arms raised and his small unit at his side. "I swear to God," he shouted at the protesters facing him, "I have children, I have a wife, I don't want to beat people. Please go home."

A man at my side threw a rock at him. The commander, unflinching, continued to plead. There were chants of "Join us! Join us!" The unit retreated toward Revolution Street, where vast crowds eddied back and forth confronted by baton-wielding Basij militia and black-clad riot police officers on motorbikes.

Dark smoke billowed over this vast city in the late afternoon. Motorbikes were set on fire, sending bursts of bright flame skyward. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, had used his Friday sermon to declare high noon in Tehran, warning of "bloodshed and chaos" if protests over a disputed election persisted.

He got both on Saturday -- and saw the hitherto sacrosanct authority of his office challenged as never before since the 1979 revolution birthed the Islamic Republic and conceived for it a leadership post standing at the very flank of the Prophet. A multitude of Iranians took their fight through a holy breach on Saturday from which there appears to be scant turning back.

Khamenei has taken a radical risk. He has factionalized himself, so losing the arbiter's lofty garb, by aligning himself with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against both Mir Hussein Moussavi, the opposition leader, and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a founding father of the revolution.

He has taunted millions of Iranians by praising their unprecedented participation in an election many now view as a ballot-box putsch. He has ridiculed the notion that an official inquiry into the vote might yield a different result. He has tried pathos and he has tried pounding his lectern. In short, he has lost his aura.

More later.

-- Steve Clemons

Here is one of the best summations I have read of today's events in Iran.

A couple of key things are that the government is trying to isolate Mousavi and his ability to communicate. The government is arresting key Mousavi supporters in mass. And the government is taping forced confessions of people who are stating that they were taking instructions from the UK, Israel, and other countries.

More later.

-- Steve Clemons

This appears to be quite bad news. The Assembly of Experts, headed by former President Rafsanjani, have expressed its full support of Ayatollah Khamenei's statement on Friday.

That means, I think, that those in the streets are being abandoned by many at the elite level of this struggle for Iran's soul.

I hope I'm wrong about this, and there may be other drivers of what happens next in this conflict. But one rule of these kinds of revolutions is that momentum and defections are key.

I wish we had heard something directly from Rafsanjani.

This information has been reported on Mehr News. I can't read this link -- so if what I have been told is mistaken, please email me or comment as soon as possible.

Here is English language confirmation of the above.

-- Steve Clemons

NOTE FROM STEVE CLEMONS:

THERE MAY BE ACCIDENTAL REPORTING OUT THERE -- OR MISLEADING "TWITTER FRAUD".

The violence is worsening. There are horrific images of people dying in real time on YouTube video clips. In one, a sniper kills a young woman. I can't watch them anymore and won't post them here.

The Basij are monitoring the hospitals for injured. So many are encouraging wounded protesters to seek out support and help at foreign embassies.

Here is a map of those embassies in Tehran that are reportedly providing shelter and assistance. (though this information has not been confirmed and has already been shown to be at least partly in error)

The Embassies that have been reported via twitter to be standing up thus far and doing the right thing are Australia, Finland, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Mexico, Portugal, France, Switzerland (which represents the US). Canada is reportedly trying to find doctors to be helpful before opening doors to those who need help.

-- Steve Clemons

This hilarious video by Jibjab called "He's Barack Obama" debuted in front of President Obama last night at the annual black tie Radio and Television Correspondents Dinner.

Here are the lyrics:

When darkness had descended all across the land
A lone voice in the distance uttered Yes! We Can!

He gave good speeches. Never Sweat.
He was real good at the Internets.

He's Barack Obama
He's come to save the day!

He passed a major stimulus for the bourgeois.
Then said he'd half the deficit -- He He! Ha Ha!

Stop unemployment! Market Dives!
Fix healthcare in his spare time!

He's Barack Obama
He's come to save the day!

He'll use his superpowers to win in Iraq.
Then Kung Fu Chop the Taliban -- Ka-Chow! Ka-Cha!

Our image in the world he'll mend
Then make the Jews and Arabs friends

He's Barack Obama
He's come to save the day!

Sir....We've got a situation. . .
Pirates! Boom. . .Thud. . .Splat

He'll spend the dough! Write the checks! Disregard the mounting debt!
Stop the globe from getting warm! Fuel your car with nuts and corn!

Leap a building! Run Industry! Save a kitten from a tree!
Fix the schools! Go to Space! Punch a robot in the face!

Stop a train! Wrestle bears! Smoke a butt! We don't care --

Cuz You're Barack Obama
You've come to save the day!

So just snap your fingers and fix the USA!

Seriously though, a mystery was solved last night when Barack Obama was asked on stage whether the pic of him standing in front of Superman was real or doctored. He said, "real."

-- Steve Clemons

This is a very disturbing, graphic video clip of the scenes in Iran today on June 20th. It gives a sense of the chaos and the massive involvement of regular citizens.

This just in from a dependable source over twitter:

Fatemiyeh Hospital Tehran: 30-40 dead as of 11pm; 200 injured. Police taking names of injured.

And another:

Haft Hooz SQ. is on fire, Protesters are so angry and try to push back Bassij with Coctel Molotov...

Others are saying that the Bassij are going to the hospitals, threatening doctors helping the injured and taking names of injured.

The British, Dutch, German and Australian Embassies are taking in injured.

-- Steve Clemons

(photo credit: David Bass)

International political consultant David Bass, CNN's Edie Emery, Bloomberg's uber connected PR diva Judith Czelusniak, Hollywood on the Potomac's Janet Donovan, and Politico's Mike Allen had a "recovery brunch" this morning in Georgetown following the pretty incredible MSNBC After Party festivities following the Radio and Television Correspondents Association dinner with Barack Obama last night.

Despite the glitz and occasional fun of the dinner and the party, Iran's convulsions were on everyone's minds. The images of brave citizens fighting off police thugs cut through the frivolousness of DC banter. And while at brunch this morning, a group of marchers expressing support for Iran's election protests made their way through Georgetown.

I have heard an as yet unconfirmed rumor that Christiane Amanpour will be hosting CNN's Larry King Live tonight from London - and Amanpour has had some of the most informed material out there on the civil war among the elites -- where this battle will be solved or crushed one way or another.

I will link Amanpour's piece here -- but encourage her tonight, if she does the show, to share a great more detail about who the primary inner circle players are and what their stance is now given Mousavi's "preparation for martyrdom."

-- Steve Clemons

It's a good thing when a President and Vice President have constructive, creative tension in their relationship and don't see eye to eye on everything. Joe Biden has seen his role in the Obama administration as "adviser-in-chief" and for the most part has kept his differences with Obama off the record and away from public view.

One split with Obama, however, has been the President's stand on Iran. Sources report to me that recently the Vice President made comments that Obama needed to speak in support of the Iranians in the streets demanding that their votes count. Biden has not wanted to inject the United States into the fray -- but he has wanted the White House to express admiration and support for the risks Iranian citizens are taking to secure democracy.

Recently, Biden said of Obama that the President always evolves in the right direction -- and that he would get to "the right place" on Iran.

Geostrategically, I agree with those who argue that no matter who ends up running the helm of Iran's political system, the United States will have to engage that leadership and negotiate over highly important strategic threats and realities that will be there no matter who ultimately prevails in Iran's current Civil War.

That said, I don't think that any President of the United States should disrespect the bravery of what is happening not just in Tehran now but throughout Iran. The election is not over -- and it should not be preempted by comments from the White House.

The President has just issued a statement now that makes clear the concern of President Obama for those trying to secure their rights and political voice.

It's a perfect statement and shows clearly Joe Biden's influence:

Statement from the President on Iran

The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.

As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect the dignity of its own people and govern through consent, not coercion.

Martin Luther King once said - "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." I believe that. The international community believes that. And right now, we are bearing witness to the Iranian peoples' belief in that truth, and we will continue to bear witness.

This revolution, if that is what it is in Iran, is not about us, not about Americans, or Brits, or any others. It is about the Iranian citizens who have had enough with their own government.

I don't know who will win in the end -- but those who are being brutalized in the street and risking everything to challenge Ahmadinejad and his thugs deserve our respect and our nuanced support.

-- Steve Clemons

There are scattered reports being texted out of Iran that a massive police presence has blocked Mousavi-supporting protesters from entering the large square.

Many reports of people shot -- and many beatings. The basiji are using tear gas and reportedly gassed a crowd of 3000 people to make them disperse.

The government has issued a statement saying that Mousavi will be held responsible for the protests and violence today. And thus, Mousavi's options at this point are to use every technique and tool at his disposal to resist the State or he and his followers will be crushed.

They need to find a way to get more of the police to defect. Rafsanjani needs to show how much muscle he has with the infrastructure of the security state that he controls.

-- Steve Clemons

One of my colleagues at the New America Foundation's Global Strategic Finance Initiative, Douglas Rediker, received this note from a friend abroad. It's illuminating as to how a well-connected Iranian internationalist who has been in Tehran during much of the post-election unrest sees matters now. To protect Rediker's source, I can't make references about where he is today.

The email:

As of yesterday the options facing the country were well summarised by Simon Tisdall and Ellie Rose in The Guardian:

1 - Happy ending

To widespread surprise, the hardline Guardian Council conducts a thorough recount of votes, as ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and decides, amid much embarrassment, that there should be a new election. Mir Hossein Mousavi wins. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accepts defeat. Pro-democracy demonstrators celebrate triumph of "green revolution". New government responds positively to US invitation to "unclench fist" and open talks on nuclear issue.

2 - Damp squib

The partial recount ordered by the Supreme Leader concludes Ahmadinejad won a clear victory, although by a narrower margin. Despite lingering suspicions of foul play, the opposition is forced to accept the verdict amid a continuing nationwide crackdown on dissent and warnings that further disorder will be dealt with harshly. Ahmadinejad, in bad odour with the Supreme Leader for provoking demonstrators, moderates his line on policy issues. Mousavi vows to fight again.

3 - Confrontation

The Guardian Council's partial vote recount and investigation into electoral fraud are rejected by the opposition. Demonstrations spread and intensify, with ever greater numbers of Iranians taking to the streets calling for the resignation of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. Security forces respond with increasing force, arresting thousands and closing down media coverage, texting networks, websites and Twitter. Purge of reformist leaders, intellectuals, students and journalists continues. Leaderless demos gradually peter out, leaving resentment. Ahmadinejad steps up anti-western rhetoric. Resumed protests at a later date considered highly likely.

4 - A second revolution

An insider cabal of senior clerical and establishment conservatives challenges Khamenei and forces his resignation after a vote in the Assembly of Experts. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani is elected in his stead and orders an investigation into the actions of Ahmadinejad and other senior members of the regime. Hardliners rally round the president while reformists demand new elections. Amid growing instability, Iran's unique Islamic/secular system of governance appears in danger of collapse".

As of Mr. Khameneni's speech today it seems that (1) above is no longer an option. For everything that Mousavi has publically announced option (2) also seems unlikely.

Unfortunately for everything I know, it now seems its either (3) or (4).

By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.

Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected.

The Basiji's are not.

These are not the students in the dorms, they're the street young -- they know the ways better than most thugs - and these young, a surprising number of them girls, are becoming more agile in their ways as each night passes on.

Also, with $10K every local police station lock can be broken and guns taken out...the police too are crowd friendly...for sure put a gun in their hands and these young become a serious counter-balance to the Basij...call them 10% of 18-22 year olds - that makes circa 10 million around the country versus max 4 million Basijis.

For all I've seen, discussed and observed on the ground I wouldn't dismiss option (4) too easily.

I hope Mousavi has thought through strategy and next steps. Where his protesters have come to was predictable up to a point.

What is the unpredictable thing he may do to change the board?

-- Steve Clemons

Can all of these people, their emotions, their cries of "death to the dictator!" be stuffed back deep into Iran's political status quo?

Some powerful images at the art and culture site, Tehran Avenue.

Thanks to Mark LeVine who has been writing about Iran's musicians and artists -- and what they have to say about Iran's current political standoff.

-- Steve Clemons

(Note: The clip above is a discussion of the global financial crisis that was posted on President Dmitry Medvedev's video blog last fall.)

This week's summit of the so-called BRIC countries in Yekaterinburg, Russia was meant to celebrate the emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China as emerging economies and major players on the world stage. It is a bit ironic then, that this meeting was held in Russia, given the current state of that country's economy.

Perhaps no country has been hit harder by the financial crisis. After growing at an average annual rate of 7% between 1997 and 2008, Russia's economy contracted 9.5% in the first quarter, and is likely to run a budget deficit of at least 7.5% this year.

To make up for the shortfall, Russia has had to spend down its foreign currency reserve holdings, which have fallen to $406.6 billion from a high of $598.1 billion less than one year ago. Russia will also likely be compelled to resume borrowing on international markets for the first time since its sovereign default in 1998.

The sudden drop in oil and natural gas prices has exposed the limits of an economic model predicated on hydrocarbon exports.

The Russian economy is clearly at a crossroads. To remain a great power over the long-term, it must modernize its economy, a task made difficult by Russia's declining labor force and dysfunctional political system.

To explore whether and how Russia's economy will emerge from the crisis, the New America Foundation is hosting an event on Monday, June 22 from 1:00 pm - 2:30 pm. The event will feature the release of a new McKinsey Global Institute report, "Lean Russia: Sustaining Economic Growth Through Improved Productivity."

The event will feature McKinsey & Company Moscow Office Director Yermolai Solzhenitsyn, McKinsey Global Institute Chairman Lenny Mendonca, New America Foundation/Global Strategic Finance Initiative Director Douglas Rediker, and Akin Gump Senior International Advisor Toby T. Gati.

Steve Clemons will moderate the discussion, which will stream live here at The Washington Note.

-- Ben Katcher

A leading policy intellectual in Tehran and former senior Iranian government official whose name I must withhold sent this to me this morning:

We are in a very hectic and dangerous yet historic time with much epics being created by the people who are standing by their rights and dignity against oppression.

We are living under constant threats ourselves and our families. We dont know what will happen an hour later. Everyday people pour to the streets to call for their rights in the hope that somebody would listen to them but their are welcomed by batons and bullets in spite of their silent and behaved march.

We have sent off all our staff and have closed down practically. With today's warnings we have entered into a new stage which is going to be even more dangerous. But the people will resist in their innovative ways.

After Khamenei drew his line today and promised a crackdown, one wonders what kind of choices lie ahead for Mousavi, Rafsanjani, and their milliions of followers tomorrow. . .

-- Steve Clemons

Dispatches from Tehran -- The Metro Ride -- sent 11:27 am, 19 June 2009

The crowd pushes in. I think of those scenes from Tokyo of the metro officers, the ones with the white gloves squeezing and packing with all their might. We are all arms, legs, elbows. Even for a country with no notion of personal space the compression on the train is incredible. Readers who had the privilege of being in DC for Obama's inauguration will remember the scenes at the Capitol Hill metro stations. This tudeh, or mass, is the same, maybe more. Inauguration day is every day in Tehran.

Someone jokes that "Today Hashemi carries us to victory!" referring to the fact that the the metro system, a notorious cash cow, is run by former president Hashemi Rafsanjani's son.

Spirits are good. It's after 4 in the afternoon, cell phones are completely down but everyone already knows where to go and what to do. Today we are green and we are black, black for those who have died...

************

Dark to lightness the crowds pour out of Imam Khomeini Station and into the Square. Already the crowd is huge.

Citizens have arrived early, not the customary 1 to 2 hours late, Iranian time as its known. The weather has returned to normal this week. It is hot, made worse by the darkness of our clothing. Every day by early evening, however, fat and full clouds dangle in large proportions from the sky, forcing the sun to set through grey and imminent rain.

Other than the magnitude of the demonstration the main thing that strikes the observer is how quiet it is. Nothing above a murmur. No one moves. The Falun Gong's silent protest in 2005 has nothing on us. Today's theme, captured in hundreds of handmade signs, is "sookoot e sabz," or "green silence." We are here to mourn the fallen, those several who have died in the past few days at the hands of the reprehensible basij.

The chants that played such a prominent role prior to the elections and which here and there can be heard, are contained by the "shushes" and "quiets!" of the crowd. Perhaps after 30 years of chanting the best way to answer is with silence.

That Imam Khomeini Square is so still borders on a minor miracle. Formerly known as Toopkhone, literally "cannon house," this square is one of Tehran's most storied, once the site of regal state ceremonies and Dar al-Funun, Iran's first modern college built in the 19th century. In recent years noble aspirations have been cast aside and Imam Khomeini Square has settled into its current role, a major south-central hub covered in ashen grey and lined on three sides by small shops and boarding houses for itinerant workers and their families. To the south of the square rises the smooth glass of the mokhaberat or telecommunications building, built in the doleful international style so common in the developing world.

They watch us with one eye. We can see a man on the 4th or 6th floor openly filming the going-ons with a tripod-mounted camcorder. The state takes pictures of us. We show them, in turn, photos of what they have done. Many hold up the pictures of the wounded and killed, gruesome images of blood-covered chests and heads, the young and the middle-aged who have fallen.

There is an overhead picture of a plainsclothes basiji rushing at a protester with what appears to be catte-prod or perhaps a knife. His face is clearly visible and in some of the pictures captured of the paramilitaries people have written "killer" underneath.

This is important. Things are moving faster. The old-timers, the ones who had seen 1979, tell us that it took months for it to get to the same point we are now. Then it began with the college students (it is no coincidence that Friday Prayers are held on Tehran University's campus). First the students came out, then the families, mothers famously sending their sons forward to face the soldiers of the Shah. We are not yet a week out from the voting and the movement is already filled with different ages and occupations. I do not believe that this is a revolution, people have seen what that brings. The comparison to 1979 is limited. Nonetheless, many of the contours of the two are shaping up to be the same.

The crowd gathers around a woman and a man, they are speaking in anguished tones. The woman, older, has her face covered like so many others here -- fear still remains despite the strength of numbers -- I can see only red, red eyes. Chera? Chera? Why? Why? We ask who she is, what has happened. We find out that she is a mother of a young shaheed, or martyr. People reach for their mobiles to take a picture and the man who is comforting her beseeches them to put the cameras away, to have sympathy for her. Over the gathered shoulders I see her turn her head to the ground...

A kid grabs my arm and tells me to come, take a picture of his friend. He is in bad shape. They lift up his shirt and we can see the bruise where the baton struck him. When he turns around I see that there is a white dollop on his head, a fresh bandage. I grin and tell him that he's the champion of the people. He knows better and only laughs.

***************

We finally start to move, slowly, feet shuffling northwards toward Ferdowsi Square several kilometers away. People debate what to do next, should we go to Friday Prayers tomorrow and let them know that we respect and accept our Rahbar, our Supreme Leader, this nezam (system) and Revolution? Or do we stay away, is it better to not antagonize a crowd that will no doubt be hot. There are reports and rumors that the basij will be out in full force, that the Supreme Leader will speak and no doubt cast his final verdict on the elections. It is ultimately decided to not go -- remember, decisions are made
collectively with this crowd, unlike the top-down driven gatherings of the pro-Ahmadinejad forces. The song passes through the crowd in waves: "Farda khabari nist! Farda khabari nist! Tomorrow there is nothing going on! Tomorrow there is nothing going on!

*****************************

Mousavi shows up, he is on the other side of the square, miniscule then unseeable, unhearable.

Bishin agha! Bishin! Sit down sit down! We squat on our hams like Okies or soccer players lining up for a photo. I hold onto the shoulders of the guy sitting next to me. Mousavi never rises far enough out of the crowd for us to see him but we can track his progress through the press by the security and cameramen standing on top of his car. They float above the heads of the thousands gathered and make their way north.

*******************

"Agha, Ferdowsi am ba mast!" a young man tells his friends and points towards the statue in Ferdowsi Square. Iran's national poet, the author of the epic Shahnameh, has been wrapped around the neck and the wrist with a green shawl.

Ferdowsi is with us!

******************

Exhausted, thirsty, I make my way back to the metro. Social movements are turning out to be a great way to shed some weight, what with all of the walking and occasional running. On the train again for the ride home, I notice that the clear plastic handles for standing passengers contain what appear to be beer cans. It's a line of hanging beer cans running up and down the two lengths of the train. Of course, this being Iran they are
non-alcoholic, but in the last part of the day and with my heart heavy the dissonance nearly causes me to reel...

(This is a guest post written by "Shane M." -- an anonymous student in Tehran who has been writing dispatches from Tehran for The Washington Note over the last week. Shane M. has a major op-ed in today's New York Times titled "A Different Iranian Revolution.)"

-- Shane M., an anonymous student in Iran

This is a guest post written by "Shane M." -- an anonymous student in Tehran who has been writing dispatches from Tehran for The Washington Note over the last week. Shane M. has a major op-ed in today's New York Times titled "A Different Iranian Revolution."

Tehran Dispatch -- Live blogging the Friday Prayer, Another Turning Point -- sent 6:04 am, 19 June 2009

Rough notes... The event is like the old Red Square May Day parades. We look to see who is there, and who is not. Dr. A, Larajani, Haddad Adel, the top leadership is all there. Karrobi and Mousavi are not...but Rezaei is, sitting in the back of the VIP section.

Supreme Leader emphasizes that difference in opinion, difference in program between candidates is normal, natural. But beware, for months the enemy had been laying the groundwork to label these elections a fraud. These elections which, with the exception of the vote for the Islamic Republic in Spring of 1979, were without rival. Iran represents a third way, between dictatorships and the false democracies of the rest of the world.

He speaks of the violence, it is clear that they are laying the groundwork for a crackdown.

Chaos has to be stopped. The way of the law, rahe qanun. There are laws and we cannot allow the killing or violence to continue, either by basijis or opposition (throughout the speech he condemns the mistakes of both sides, but as I will soon make clear, comes down in favor of one side).

Supreme Leader names Nouri and Rafsanjani by name, a remarkable act by his own admission. He lauds the long record of service of both men to the country, says that he has known Rafsanjani 52 years. Leader says while there is corruption in Iran, how can anyone say that Raf. is corrupt? Stands up for him. This is clearly a slap on the wrist to the current president, for what Dr. A said about Nouri and Rafsanjani during the debates. It is not Iranian, not appropriate for such ugliness to penetrate politics. Good words were spoken during the debates, but unfortunately nastiness and un-Islamic comments were made and we need to be careful...

Mousavi, Karrobi, and Rezaei were described by their previous post and experiences, they were all defended by the Leader as good men devoted to the IRI.

They are almost incidental, it is so so clear that this is a grudge match, beef, between Hashemi and Dr. A. The Leader himself said as much, saying that there has been a difference in opinion between the two men stretching back to 2005. Then came the kicker, the turning point, one sentence followed by a great cheer from the audience: There is a difference in opinion between the two, and my opinion (or preference) is closer to the president than Rafsanjani.

The Leader made his choice clear.

The green light has been given to the basij to, excuse my language, to kick ass, chew gum, and take names.

A particularly juicy twist, turning night into day and a shot at the U.S. and the 2000 elections, says that you can say that cheating occurs when the difference in the votes is close, 100,000 or 500,000, or 1 million. But 11 million? How can that be cheating?

But we have a process, we will count the votes with the representatives of the candidates present, the Guardian Council will fulfill its obligation.

More night-into-day-ism: Says that there are winners and losers in elections, and for the losers to now want the "rules" to be changed or modified is wrong.

Qanun, qanun, qanun. Law, law, law. It's unnerving the emphasis on the need for law and order.

By the end, and uncharacteristically, the Leader, gets hot...folks here and there interrupt his speech and he tells them to listen. When talking about U.S. and the west and the efforts of a certain American zionist to launch a velvet revolution in Georgia, he says that these "aqmaqha" or idiots think that they can do the same in Iran...to use such language is really shocking in the Iranian context.

Bizarre ending, ends in weeping, because the Leader says that I love you more than you know...

Overall, it does not look good, worse than it ever was...

-- Shane M., an anonymous student in Tehran

For the last several days, I have been running "dispatches" from an anonymous student in Tehran. Through The Washington Note, he has developed an enormous audience interested in his on-site, real time observations of the post-election convulsions in Iran.

Yesterday, TWN's anonymous blogger had to pick a name in order to appear on the NPR show, "All Things Considered." And today, the New York Times has run a major op-ed by him under the name "Shane M" titled "A Different Iranian Revolution."

I have another dispatch from Shane M -- and will post it shortly, but first a few clips from his excellent op-ed.

The first identifies a split within my own organization at the New America Foundation -- between my colleagues Flynt Leverett and Patrick Doherty on one hand and Amjad Atallah, Afshin Molavi and myself on the other. Perhaps there are actually three hands rather than two -- as I strongly believe that no matter what the eventual outcome of the Iranian election process and its aftermath, the United States and the West must engage Iran over its nuclear ambitions. An isolation strategy will be extremely counter-productive.

That said, as a progressive realist -- or what Anatol Lieven would term an "ethical realist" -- I am asking my similarly directed realist friends what part of progressive or ethical don't they get? The election process is not over -- and one of the many mistakes of the Bush administration was to not identify with the aspirations and hopes of citizens in Muslim societies. To preemptively recognize Ahmadinejad before Iran has resolved its turmoil is to throw America back where Bush had us with Iran -- and that's a mistake.

From Shane M.'s essay:

WE look over this wall of marching people to see what our friends in the United States are saying about us. We cannot help it -- 30 years of struggle against the Enemy has had the curious effect of making us intrigued. To our great dismay, what we find is that in important sectors of the American press a disturbing counternarrative is emerging: That perhaps this election wasn't a fraud after all. That the United States shouldn't rush in with complaints of democracy denied, and that perhaps Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the president the Iranian people truly want (and, by extension, deserve).

Do not believe it. Those so-called experts warning Americans to be leery of claims of fraud by the opposition are basing their arguments on an outdated understanding of Iran that has little to do with the reality of what we here are experiencing during these singular days.

Ken Ballen, President of Terror Free Tomorrow, and my colleague Patrick Doherty were both involved in supporting a Terror Free Tomorrow/New America Foundation poll of Iranian political views in early May. Shane makes the point that like "stale bagels a week old" the poll results which were then pointing toward Ahmadinejad were pre-debate and simply caught a snap shot in time distant from what happened on 6-12.

He writes:

Let's also forget the polls, carried out in May by Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, that have been making the rounds this past week, with numbers that showed Mr. Ahmadinejad well ahead in the election, even in Mr. Moussavi's hometown, Tabriz. Maybe last month Mr. Ahmadinejad was indeed on his way to victory. But then came the debates.

Starting on June 1, the country was treated to an experience without precedent in the 30 years of the Islamic Republic of Iran: six back-to-back live and unscripted debates among the four presidential candidates. Iranians everywhere were riveted, and the poll numbers began to move.

By the Wednesday before the election, Mr. Moussavi was backed by about 44 percent of respondents, while Mr. Ahmadinejad was favored by around 38 percent. So let's not cloud the results with numbers that were, like bagels, stale a week later. (And let's ignore the claim that polling by Iranians in Iran is "notoriously untrustworthy." A consortium of pollsters and social scientists working for a diverse range of political and social organizations systematically measured public opinion for months before the election.)

Such a major shift has happened before. A month before the 1997 elections, the establishment candidate, Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, was trouncing his opponents in surveys. Then, a week before the vote, the tide changed, bringing to power a reformer, Mohammad Khatami.

I will be appearing on a panel on Monday between 3:30 pm and 5:00 pm EST at the New America Foundation (it will stream live here at The Washington Note) about Iran's electoral turmoil along with Terror Free Tomorrow's Ken Ballen, my New America Foundation friends and colleagues Flynt Leverett and Afshin Molavi, and Nader Mousavizadeh of the International Institute for Strategic Studies who has been promoting an "Ignore Ahmadenijad" strategy for our eventual US-Iran negotiations.

Shane M. powerfully captures the sense of transformation and change that 6-12 seems to have brought to Iran. Interestingly, whereas Obama saw Mousavi and Ahmadinejad similarly when it came to the nuclear issue, Shane M. also recognizes the paradox that both political rivals would probably usher Iran towards active discussions and negotiations with the United States. That is what the Iranian people in both camps want.

But there is something greater in the Sea of Green that has spread throughout Iran.

Shane M. writes:

One final note: the election does reveal a paradox. There is strong evidence that Iranians across the board want a better relationship with the United States. But if Mr. Moussavi were to become president and carry out his campaign promise of seeking improved relations with America, we would probably see a good 30 percent of the Iranian population protesting that he is "selling out" to the enemy.

By contrast, support for Mr. Ahmadinejad's campaign was rooted in part in his supposed defense of the homeland and national honor in the face of United States aggression. Americans too-long familiar with the boorish antics of the Iranian president will no doubt be surprised to learn that the best chance for improved relations with the United States perhaps lies with Mr. Ahmadinejad. But Mr. Ahmadinejad is perceived here as being uniquely able to play the part of an Iranian Nixon by "traveling to the United States" and bringing along with him his supporters -- and they are not few.

In other words, Iranians believe they face a daunting choice: a disastrous domestic political situation with Mr. Ahmadinejad but an improved foreign policy, or improved domestic leadership under Mr. Moussavi but near impossible challenges in making relations with the United States better.

The truth is, it wasn't supposed to happen this way. The open-air parties that, for one week, turned Tehran at night into a large-scale civic disco, were an accident. People gathered by the tens of thousands in public squares, circling around one another on foot, on motorcycle, in their cars. They showed up around 4 or 5 in the afternoon and stayed together well into the next day, at least 3 or 4 in the morning, laughing, cheering, breaking off to debate, then returning to the fray. A girl hung off the edge of a car window "Dukes of Hazzard" style. Four boys parked their cars in a circle, the headlights illuminating an impromptu dance floor for them to show off their moves.

Everyone watched everyone else and we wondered how all of this could be happening. Who were all of these people? Where did they come from? These were the same people we pass by unknowingly every day. We saw one another, it feels, for the first time. Now in the second week, we continue to look at one another as we walk together, in marches and in silent gatherings, toward our common goal of having our vote respected.

No one knew that it would come to this. Iran is this way. Anything is possible because very little in politics or social life has been made systematic. We used to joke that if you leave Tehran for three months you'll come back to a new city. A friend left for France for a few days last week and when he returned the entire capital had turned green.

Read the entire piece.

I'm proud of our anonymous student who has been sending his dispatches to TWN's many readers and has now gone big time at the New York Times.

Another dispatch from Tehran soon. . .

-- Steve Clemons

My New America Foundation colleague and Wired Magazine editor Nick Thompson chats about the role of "twitter" and other new media in the post-Iran election protests.

But what is also interesting -- and Nick Thompson does not discuss -- is that Ahmadinejad-supporting parts of Iran's government, probably the Ministry of Interior, are trying to entrap people and mislead Mousavi supporters using Twitter.

Here is a list of suspected government and police/security twitter i.d.'s:

* http://twitter.com/lisamforeman (fake press account)
* http://twitter.com/rWhZEV (Fake Iran Election headlines)
* http://twitter.com/AJE_Producer (fake Al' Jazerra Account)
* http://twitter.com/TruePersian1 (Preaching violence & destruction in all caps.)
* http://twitter.com/amoo_miki (Be wary of this acct. Following many with no updates)
* http://twitter.com/IRElec (Using entrapment techniques that are well known)
* http://twitter.com/Twiter_Thinker (spamming same link over and over, t-shirt sales)
* http://twitter.com/persiantiki
* http://twitter.com/rccccr (following users with Iran election tweets, no posts)
* http://twitter.com/BrothersinAbrah (hashtag post only)
* http://twitter.com/IRFORREAL (fake url for unrelated site)
* http://twitter.com/mikehiavelli
* http://twitter.com/MoonMagician (Same message over and over)
* http://twitter.com/Amir1982
* http://twitter.com/_SuperGreen_
* http://twitter.com/globalmeeting
* http://twitter.com/ghb78
* http://twitter.com/am12976
* http://twitter.com/iranianfree2k9
* http://twitter.com/FreeMediaNews
* http://www.twitter.com/jfcrow (unconfirmed)
* http://twitter.com/Karmuk (Retweeting same message over and over)
* http://twitter.com/chartingstocks (Writing fake articles on the Iranian Election Twitters)
* http://twitter.com/obamaspy
* http://twitter.com/IranisFree
* http://twitter.com/serv_

My twitter link is https://twitter.com/SCClemons.

-- Steve Clemons

For about a day, I have been quite worried about the "Anonymous Student in Tehran" who was sending important dispatches to us of what he was seeing convulsively unfold in Iran. He had been quiet all day.

But we've just had a set of exchanges, and he's OK. I just learned that he will have an op-ed in tomorrow's New York Times under the pseudonym "Shane M."

"Shane M." also discussed what he's been seeing on today's "All Things Considered" on National Public Radio. You can listen to him at the link.

So, our anonymous dispatcher is getting an even wider audience for his richly detailed, captivating observations.

Here is something he shared tonight:

It's 4:30 in the morning and I'm still in front of the computer...I just can't keep up. I pray that we don't hit disaster following the Guardian Council decision.

I don't think that the people will give up...it may all come down to what Mousavi decides to do. I attended a meeting of Mousavi supporters two nights ago and the report was that the man was standing strong (that's the "Turk" I was talking about...), but I wonder if he will continue to do so if the answer is "no, you lost."

Will these three men, Karrobi, Mousavi, and Rezaei step aside, like Gore in 2000?

Thanks for spreading the word. A revised version of the last piece is, insanely, going to get published in the NY Times tomorrow.

Please, please use all of your considerable influence to stop this silliness about "North Tehran/the Iranians were fooled." A friend told me that Joe Klein went on CNN today with a version of this bogus narrative and everyone was so impressed. I just don't understand it.

More tomorrow from "Shane M."

(photo credit: Madyar's blog)

-- Steve Clemons

(photo credit: Madyar in Iran -- check out the other amazing photos at Madyar's blog)

This is a picture of a massive pro-Mousavi rally in Esfehan, Iran's third largest city.

One commenter at TwitPic sarcastically responded:

It's a good thing Mousavi only had 746,000 votes in Esfehan!

-- Steve Clemons

Along the lines of Iran President Ahmadinejad denying the Holocaust, the Ahmadinejad-appointed president of the University of Tehran stated today that there was no attack on university students and no students killed. Outrageous.

Via Nico Pitney at Huffington Post, a video has now been posted from the beginning of one frightening attack (pasted above).

Here is commentary at The Australian on more horrific attacks and murders at the university.

-- Steve Clemons

I really, really hope that after the Brits go through their upcoming Tory phase that they are smart enough to make British Foreign Secretary David Miliband their 'next next prime minister'.

On Miliband's blog today, he comments on Iran and asks whether "we" should all be doing something more to support those in Iran's streets who are protesting election fraud.

Miliband writes:

People ask whether or not we are doing enough to back Mousavi supporters. Fair question - Senator John Kerry also addressed this issue in a typically eloquent piece today.

The fact is that those on the streets have not asked for us to be their spokesmen. We need to stand for our deeply held commitment that it is for the Iranian people to decide on their government, and we will continue to call for peaceful respect for media and protestors. The fact is that many Iranians have severe doubts about the outcome announced on Friday. They deserve to have their doubts addressed.

These are fine lines but we know the cost of crossing them. The memory of foreign intervention throughout their history is deep within all Iranians. A proud people wants to decide its own future. We should defend that.

Perfect statement. We need to be respectful of the Iranian society's struggle over its own national soul.

I also want to post a short clip from an exchange that David Miliband had on Channel 4 in London with correspondent Jon Snow yesterday:

Jon Snow: Well I, this is surely a very difficult point because what, what's happening in the blogosphere is that people are pleading with the outside world to support them, to, they want to hear you support them for example, that is, in fact, something you can't do.

David Miliband: No I can, I can very clearly say that we want to see the will of the Iranian people respected. What I, the trap I won't fall in to, and President Obama's been clear about this, our Prime Minister has been clear about this, we will not fall in to the trap of allowing anyone to say that Britain or the United States is trying to choose the Government of Iran, that we're siding with one side or another, one individual or another.

The memory of 1953, the demonisation of Britain and the end of the Mosaddeq Government in 1953 ...

Jon Snow: The justified demonisation.

David Miliband: ... justified in many ways, the demon, not demonisation but certainly profound mistakes were made in 1953. That is used in Iran to blame any opposition on the US and the UK significantly. Even today many of the demonstrators are being attacked, sometimes in the blogosphere, sometimes officially, as being puppets of foreign powers, as being, having their strings pulled by foreign powers. We are not going to fall in to that trap. We're going to say very clearly first it's for the Iranian people to choose their own Government, the will of the people needs to come out.

Secondly we will say very clearly that we deplore the violence and especially the loss of life but we will not end up in a position where anyone can accuse the US or the UK or any Western power of trying to choose the Iranian Government, that's not our job.

As usual, Miliband gets both the nuances and big issues right.

-- Steve Clemons

I am really proud of Senator John Kerry for getting out into the public sphere and explaining to Americans that the US needs to be cautious and nuanced at this fragile moment in Iran's political course.

Barack Obama was wrong to comment at all in his offhanded comparison of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Many Iranians felt as if Obama -- who has invested so heavily in trying to communicate with Iranian citizens in the past -- dissed their aspirations for change.

That said, America ought not to be injecting itself into Iran's political debate either in ways that make it an easy target for Ahmadinejad's thugs or in ways that undermine the democratic and reform aspirations of the impressive, risk-taking protesters.

John Kerry, who chairs the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, shared the following on CNN's The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer:

I think there are serious questions about the election. But I don't - I think the Iranians are carrying that message to their own leadership.

There is no need for the United States of America to step into the middle of it and make this about America, when it is an Iranian moment, spurred on by Iranians, thoroughly supported by Iranians to the degree that the supreme ayatollah has now backed off his own support for the elections, called for an investigation.

The Guardian Council is going to meet, hear from all three candidates. This is a really extraordinary event that is playing out before our eyes, and it is playing out because Iranians are demanding that it play out. Iranians are being killed; Iranians have taken risks.

Here is an op-ed written by Senator Kerry and titled "With Iran, Think Before You Speak," that appeared in the New York Times today.

-- Steve Clemons

Politico's Patrick Gavin (who is editing Michael Calderone's column this week) reports and I have confirmed that Dan Froomkin's invaluable White House Watch blog has been discontinued at the Washington Post.

Froomkin was the new media hybrid of Woodward and Bernstein during the George W. Bush administration and provided one of the best informed portals into America's palace politics.

I want all TWN's readers to know that Froomkin was one of those who greatly furthered serious public discourse about torture, domestic spying, the Iraq War, and many other stressful and important subjects -- and his platform at the Post will be missed.

-- Steve Clemons

Update: Here is a statement from Dan Froomkin:

I'm terribly disappointed. I was told that it had been determined that my White House Watch blog wasn't "working" anymore.

Personally, I thought it was still working very well, and based on reader feedback, a lot of readers thought so, too. But from what I could tell, it was still working very well.

I also thought White House Watch was a great fit with The Washington Post brand, and what its readers reasonably expect from the Post online.

-- Steve Clemons

Ahmadinejad's militias are beating up students and ransacking the universities. . .

-- Steve Clemons

NPR's Mark Memmott reports on leading human rights attorneys and activists in Iran.

And Khatami advisor Mohammad Ali Abtahi's blog also reports that he has been arrested.

He notes on his blog:

Mr. Abtahi arrested

Mohammad Ali Abtahi, former vice president during Mr. Khatami's presidency and the advisor to Mr. Karroubi in the presidential election had been arrested today (Tuesday). Whenever he gets released, he will write here on his website.

And we look forward to reading what he shares. . .

-- Steve Clemons

The highest estimate of Taliban fighters in Pakistan (TTP) I had seen or heard until today was 20,000 (though inclusive of newer recruits and "conscripts"). In Afghanistan, the estimates I had seen (depending on whether it was based on US or Pakistani intelligence) ranged from 5,000-15,000 fighters.

Somehow I missed an important revised estimate, likely as most of us have been all aflutter over Iranian elections. The Daily Times, a fairly reputable Pakistani daily published out of Lahore and Karachi reported two weeks ago that the Pakistani Taliban's strength, manpower, and organizational capacity are likely much greater than originally anticipated:

After tasting the toughness of [Baitullah Mehsud's] subordinate Taliban group in the Malakand division, one can estimate the kind of power he will use when challenged. In North Waziristan, considered a territory of the Jalaluddin Haqqani group, he has Nur Syed Amir, Faqir Dawar and Haji Aftab Khan; the last-named also charged with looking after Baitullah's foreign guests from the Arab world, Central Asia, Chechnya in Russia and Xinjiang in China. Commanders who lead bands of Taliban marauders in other agencies are: Hakimullah (Orakzai and Kurram with 8,000 men), Rehmanullah and Hazrat Ali (Khyber, 1,200), Umar Khalid (Mohmand, 5,000), and Faqir Muhammad (Bajaur, 5,000). Baitullah himself is estimated to dispose of 30,000 warriors, supplemented with Tahir Yuldashev's 4,000 Uzbeks and other "foreigners". The TTP could have nearly 50,000 men at its disposal. If you also count the non-Baitullah Taliban, the total estimate comes to over 100,000.

According to some estimates, Baitullah could have in his kitty around Rs 4 billion to spend annually. This money comes from drugs facilitated by Al Qaeda contacts, Arab money from the Gulf, money made from kidnapping for ransom, looting of banks, smuggling and "protection money" in general. He has weapons produced in Russia, the US and India, and has been looting explosives produced at the Wah munitions factory.

This bears some important implications even if it is only halfway accurate. The good news is that this might actually raise Pakistan's estimation of the Taliban, at least sections commanded by Mehsud, to an existential threat (which operationally, at least up until now, has not been the case, despite claims by US or Pakistani officials even during the battles in Bajaur and Swat). The bad news of course is that the Pakistani Army will have to face an exceptionally difficult task of dislodging a very powerful Taliban, flush with a $50 million annual budget, from the tribal belt.

If Mehsud calls in Taliban support from across the border, this might provide coalition forces in Afghanistan some much-welcomed breathing room, but it raises the prospect of a battered and demoralized Pakistani army -- one that is still unprepared and training for this type of warfare -- even if it eventually prevails in what will certainly be a long fight. That does not bode well for anyone -- not the US, Afghanistan, nor Pakistan.

It also probably doesn't help that US air strikes are targeting Mullah Nazir while Pakistan is trying to cut a deal with him to avoid taking on the entire TTP coalition.

-- Sameer Lalwani

Update: My colleague, Paul Staniland, who is far better acquainted with this subject than I, writes:

seems pretty massively high to me. Daily Times is fairly reputable, but note how much vagueness they deploy to arrive at that figure. if they mean "young men who could carry guns who are linked in some loose fashion to insurgents" i guess maybe, but 50,000 is massive for an insurgent group, and 100,000 basically up to Chinese/Russian civil war sizes. seems implausible to me. also, keep in mind that this is an editorial trying to rouse resistance and defiance, so inflating the numbers is in its interest.

I am partial to this take, but I still think that if the Pakistani army has had tactical difficulties in previous campaigns -- not to mention strategic complications like the 3 million refugees, the largest since 1947 partition, that functions as a breeding ground for militant recruits -- when Pakistani army to militant ratios have been 4:1 or higher, any estimates that push the numbers of TTP fighters upwards increasingly forecasts a very bloody conflict in Waziristan.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry has a very sensible piece in the New York Times today. Kerry gets the strategic issues between the US and Iran -- but he also understands that what is happening in the streets of Tehran matters. Obama has to be very careful of becoming an easy target for Ahmadinejad and a state apparatus that will now fear its own people.

As I mentioned in a New York Times article by Helene Cooper and Mark Landler today, I believe that Barack Obama's dismissiveness about differences between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi and a narrow focus on Iran's nuclear gambit was a mistake. Obama may not have meant to but he conveyed disrespect for the process at play now in Iran -- and what is important for Obama and others in the national security establishment to understand is that Iran's election is not over.

John Kerry references Mossadegh in his good op-ed -- and what I find fascinating is that in Iran's narrative, the US has been a villain for robbing them of their democracy and installing the Shah. Now, in a palace coup, Ahmadinejad has robbed the Iranians of the belief they had in their own version of an Islamic democracy, and he has become the new villain.

"Death to America" has now been replaced by "Death to the Dictator."

From John Kerry's piece:

Mir Hussein Moussavi, the leading reformist presidential candidate, has advocated a more conciliatory approach to America. But his political legitimacy comes from his revolutionary credentials for helping overthrow an American-backed shah -- a history that today helps protect protesters against accusations of being an American "fifth column."

Iran's internal change is happening on two levels: on the streets, but also within the clerical establishment. Ultimately, no matter who wins the election, our fundamental security challenge will be the same -- preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. That will take patient effort, and premature engagement in Iran's domestic politics may well make negotiations more difficult.

What comes next in Iran is unclear. What is clear is that the tough talk that Senator McCain advocates got us nowhere for the last eight years. Our saber-rattling only empowered hard-liners and put reformers on the defensive. An Iranian president who advocated a "dialogue among civilizations" and societal reforms was replaced by one who denied the Holocaust and routinely called for the destruction of Israel.

Meanwhile, Iran's influence in the Middle East expanded and it made considerable progress on its nuclear program.

The last thing we should do is give Mr. Ahmadinejad an opportunity to evoke the 1953 American-sponsored coup, which ousted Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh and returned Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi to power. Doing so would only allow him to cast himself as a modern-day Mossadegh, standing up for principle against a Western puppet.

-- Steve Clemons

According to my friend and colleague, Afshin Molavi, Mir-Hossein Mousavi's decision to call for a massive "mourning" day honoring those who have died during the election protests sends a powerful political message to Iran's citizens linking back to the Iranian Revolution 30 years ago.

As Molavi told me, in Shia culture, martyrs are honored on the third day, the seventh day, and the fortieth day after their death. This 3-7-40 tribute to fallen martyrs killed by the Shah's forces was in part how the Iranian Revolution of 1978-79 grew.

Mousavi is now deploying symbols and techniques of Iran's Islamic Revolution to undermine the legitimacy of the institutions of government that have engaged in election fraud.

Today, the green scarves have been replaced by black, the color of mourning, and a former Iranian diplomat in Tehran has just reported to me that those out on the streets supporting Mousavi are now greater today than in any of the other protest marches this past week.

-- Steve Clemons

(Credit: Jonathan Guyer)

Jonathan Guyer is a Program Associate for the New America Foundation/Middle East Task Force.

-- Jonathan Guyer

This is a guest note written by an anonymous student in Tehran. Sent to The Washington Note at 3:50 am on 17 June 2009.

So long as the "process" is underway with the Guardian Council I don't foresee things spinning way out of control. What happened in Azadi, the shootings, wasn't systematic. I'm holding my breath to see what will happen in 8-10 days, when the decision comes down

...I'm afraid for that day. Again, I cannot emphasize enough, that they've overstepped and this time the foot didn't land just on the necks of university kids. Mothers and daughters are being shot and beat, thankfully not a lot, but these are the same people who were out the
week before the election. Soccer game today at 3 pm against North Korea (go figure), a positive outcome means that Iran is going to the World Cup.

Personally, I'm holding out for a '68 Olympics, Mexico City, "black power" moment...Wouldn't it be something if the players said something?

******************************************

Roughly-Hewn Debate -- Sent 4:47 am, 15 June 2009

Again, there are two levels of action right now, the unstructured protest on the streets beginning in the late afternoon and escalating at night. In my own apartment complex this morning (2 am) we were woken up to screams and shouts. Kids from the building and elsewhere had been engaging in rock fights in the adjoining street and had run \into the complex (a typical "tower" found in almost all of the developing world). Families went out to the fire escape to look down to see what had happened. Turns out that special police had rushed into the complex, followed by "basijis" or paramilitary forces, basically thugs on motorbikes with helmets and batons. It was reported that they had electric rods and, to the shock of many, machetes. Several people were wounded and taken away and much of the first floor and entrance of the complex was destroyed.

A dramatic exchange ensued after two hours...the gate locked, the elders of the complex in heated discussion with representatives of the basiji forces..."Why if you're chasing after someone have you come into our homes and beat women and children, broken all of our glass and busted the windshields on the cars in the underground parking." The basijis left with the situation unresolved.

What is remarkable about this scene is the role of elders trying to mediate, to speak rationally in order to resolve the problem. This is unlikely to last as the situation becomes more and more about force. On buses and in taxes you hear voices saying what's the point, they're all the same, why fight it, etc.., but then every night and even during the day clashes are occurring. This week will be critical...if the conflict can be sustained---Tehran is steadily coming to a standstill---then it is possible that the situation will enter a new phase. Either way, have no doubt, the IRI is over. A leading cleric has already announced, it's no longer the Islamic Republic (jomhuri e Islami) but the Islamic government (hookoomat e Islami). Whether now or in a few months or years, the
game is over.

I attended the Vali Asr demonstration for Dr. A yesterday afternoon and the turnout was impressive, mostly families and obviously religious types (momen in Farsi). Many asked that I take their pictures and the mood was festive, defiant. It is critical that you know that the chants were minimally against Mousavi. Almost all were directed against Rafsanjani. He is seen as the big threat, and this election is turning out to be an outstanding feud between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad in alliance with the Supreme Leader. What will be
interesting is to see what Rafsanjani does next, particularly as he is regularly described as the "power behind the power," the man with real pull in Iran, etc.. What will he do?

Mousavi, while known to be a man who does not back down (I know this directly from a man who worked with him directly on the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution), is also likely, like Khatami, to (at least at first) to try to calm the situation down, which is what
we have already seen him do. This means that the movement and action out in the streets thus far lacks clear leadership.

Notably, Ahmadinejad in his victory address broadcast on live television announced that it no longer matters who was with the "Imam" (in Iran the usual honorific given to the late Ruhollah Khomeini). What matters is what you've done now.

We are hearing word that Karrobi has announced that he will no longer wear his clerical garb. Karrobi, who famously and loudly claimed that Dr. A stole the election from him four years ago, feels that he has been humiliated again. There is simply no way that he received around 400,000 votes -- his known supporters were more than this. Focus on this stat for proof of how bogus this election has been.

Goebbels may have said that only the Big Lie will do, but that was good for 1930s Germany not Iran today.

In Tehran information is being passed around by phone and word of mouth, SMS is still down, facebook is blocked though easily accessed with a filter-buster.

Finally, and this may be the most important piece of news, I personally heard "Marq bar Khamanei" (death or down with Khamanei) said quickly and once last night. A neighborhood reported that it was more than once...if true, and I don't know if it is, this marks a significant turning point. Up until now the chants had been "Marq bar dictator" meaning Ahmadinejad. To chant against the Supreme Leader is an incredible taboo...please see Charles Kurzmann's book "The Unthinkable Revolution" for context as to why this is important...In 1979 everyone wanted the Shah to fall but no one believed that is was thinkable. Then, for some reason, it became so, the movement reached
a moment of viability. While this did not guarantee the revolution's success, it was a necessary condition for events to move forward. Has the same happened now in Iran?

The 1979 Revolution, once in motion, took months to play out but inside of it no knew what was exactly happening, how long it would take, or whether there would be a successful conclusion. The same applies to the situation now.

-- Anonymous Student in Tehran

The economic crisis has magnified the importance of U.S.-China relations and accelerated China's rise as a major player on the global stage.

To discuss the relationship and offer prescriptions for American policy, the New America Foundation is hosting an event TODAY from 9:30 am - 11:00 am with Ambassador Frank Lavin.

Lavin is currently the Chairman of the Public Affairs Practice at Edelman Asia Pacific and he previously served as Ambassador to Singapore and Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade in the Bush administration.

The event will stream live here at The Washington Note.

-- Ben Katcher

The spllt among the mullahs is serious and with all due respect to those who want to start nuclear negotiations tomorrow, this election in Iran is not over.

Just back from Los Angeles and now in DC. More tomorrow.

-- Steve Clemons

This is the clip from a segment I did last night on the Iranian elections with Keith Olbermann's Countdown. I tried to emphasize that the Iranian election belongs not to Frank Gaffney or John Bolton, or to the Obama administration - but to the Iranian people themselves.

As Americans, we need to remove ourselves from the process and allow it to unfold on Iranian terms.

-- Steve Clemons

This is a guest note from an anonymous student in Iran.

sent June 16, 8:45 am EST

2 pm news shows nearly 10-15 minutes of damage from the "march without permit"...again, the "Tricky Dick" law and order theme...what's interesting is that while the outrage of Mousavi voters is acknowledged, as well as the nightly violence, the message is this is outside of the confines of appropriate patriotic behavior...the theme is clearly that Mousavi is rational and reasonable but this action is attracting "lot i loot" (hooligans)

. . .parents are advised to keep their young kids from being "fooled" by trouble-makers, don't let them go out...Dr. A is shown getting blessings from the Russian pres....no doubt the pending decision of the Guardian Council gives an excuse to allow peaceful marches to continue, there is a need to show that the system is working, it's legitimate...Mousavi march was scheduled for 5 pm in Vali Asr (spread by word of mouth yesterday) was cancelled as pro-gov forces on the spot (proving what I've said about the organizational capacity of the A forces), announced at 2 pm for 4 pm in Vali Asr (conveniently an hour before the planned Mousavi gathering), Mousavi has now informed followers to NOT go...

Million Mousavi March -- sent June 16, 6:00 am EST

Today, under slate skies and despite official warnings that the permit to march had been denied, against rumors that orders had been given to shoot to kill, they came. They came by the tens if not hundreds of thousands, marching east to west along the many kilometers of Enqelab Street to Azadi, or Freedom Square. "It would be dishonorable, na mardi, to not go," a young couple explained. "We have to go." Another man asks who is going, what is going on?

He is told that the "Mousavi-chiha" are marching starting at 4. He laughs, "Mousavi-chiha nadarim, hame ye Iran hastand!" We don't have Mousavi supporters, it's now all of Iran...

That they came to Azadi, a place where thirty years ago the Revolution pivoted towards victory was fitting, for as much as the election campaign had been about who best represented the revolutionary values of Iran, Islam, and the late Imam, the push and pull of the past few days between opposition and Ahmadinejad forces has been a struggle to lay claim to authenticity.

Authenticity that lies in the imagined and lived past, places, and practices of the Islamic Republic. It is as if whomever can get to the important places and rituals first and stay there, hang onto them, will win. So at night, beginning at 9 pm, we hear shouts of "Allah Akbar!" from the rooftops, just like in the fall and winter of 1978-1979. We have marches to sacred spots like Azadi and appeals by all sides to the memory of Khomeini...

In the crowd there are families, young and old. One cannot help but notice the large presence of women of all ages. The typical daily life of the capital is out here together, the homes, sidewalks and boulevards abandoned for this shared space. There is word that the crowd is millions strong; we know that it stretches eastwards to Imam Hussein Square. It is an incredible occasion -- by comparison the state-organized 200,000 strong anniversary march that takes place every February starts from around Ferdowsi Square, several kilometers closer in to Azadi.

The mood in the crowd was positive, reminiscent of the joyous celebrations of the final week of the campaign. The chants are up-to-date, changed to reflect the new circumstances in Iran, the things that we did not know before Friday's vote. "Hale ye noor e ro dide, rai e mano nadide?" A reference to the light of the hidden Imam that Ahmadinejad claimed to have seen, roughly translated to rhyme, "If he saw that light, why didn't he see the vote we cast with all our might?!" And, "Ta in Ahmadi nejad hast, in ghaziye ijad hast!" Until this Ahmadi is here, this commotion will not disappear!

There are new signs as well. Written in English, "Where is My Vote?" (I can't help myself, the idea for an Al Gore-Mir Hossein Mousavi buddy film pops into my mind, "Dude, Where is My Vote?"). Another: 2 x 2 = 24 million, a play on the bogus economic measures touted by Ahmadinejad during the debates, now updated to reflect the equally dubious election results.

The procession passes through an underpass and just as there is great pleasure in honking the car horn in tunnels these many people send up an enormous cheer, echoing off the walls. From dark to light the crowd emerges from the underpass and looks back to see what they have done. There is above them stretching across the tunnel a dissonant sight, a sign with the visage and message of the Supreme Leader. He watches over this protest in the manner of TJ Eckelberg...

The crowd knots and comes to an absolute standstill. They are pressed against each other, Cochella and Woodstock in one. Slowly, slowly the people move forward and see that the cause for the standstill is Mehdi Karrobi. Karrobi whose almost 400,000 votes was the most telling sign that something was seriously amiss with the vote count (he counted more registered activists and supports in his campaign machine alone). Karrobi, a former member of Imam Khomeini's inner circle, who during the presidential race four years ago famously protested that "I was in first place during the vote count, took an afternoon nap, and when I woke up I was suddenly two places behind Ahmadinejad."

The 72 year-old cleric stands atop a car surrounded by body guards, blessing the crows with blown kisses.

As I have noted before, what is remarkable about the Mousavi and opposition marches is the orderly disorder. These are not rallies or events in the manner that we are accustomed to in the United States. There are no official Mousavi volunteers guiding the crowd to the designated rallying points, college interns filled with coffee and day-old pizza. The movement is self-directed. Mousavi had asked his supporters to march but to march respectfully, to not give any excuse for violence. The crowd is abiding.

Along the nearly kilometer length of a basiji base, the cry goes up: Shoar nagoo! Don't shout slogans! Hands are up held up instead. It is quiet. Here and there a voice, unable to restrain itself, begins to scream "Allah Akbar! Allah Akbar!" He is met instantly with hisses and whistles---saket! saket! quiet! quiet!---and the voice falls silent again.

How do we know where to go? When to go? SMS or texting is down, the internet is spotty and cell phones have become unreliable. Still, Tehran has always been a city where information gets passed around easily. For all of the complaints and anxiety that life has become too modern, that people are living alone in great apartment towers instead of with their families in homes, the citizens of this city find ways to know, to be in each other's business.

Conversations come easily even amongst strangers, more so now than ever. Men weave through the crowd, telling us what's next. "Come tomorrow to Vali Asr at 5! Tomorrow! Spread the word!"

Compare this to the Ahmadinejad rallies that we have seen. Yesterday, Mother's Day in Iran (an appropriate day given Ahmadinejad's persistent claim to be the "defender" of the vatan, or motherland) the Ahmadinejad groups held their own rally and show of force in Vali Asr Square in central Tehran. Their numbers are not few -- the crowd filled the square and stretched south for at least a kilometer. But this action is more organized, mobilization by memo as one observer put it. Word goes out in the mosques, bonyads, and ministries that there is to be a gathering and they come, organized by section and arriving in chartered buses and vans. Unlike the Mousavi rallies, their Great Leader is present both in person and in stereo. Audio equipment is set up to so that we might hear his message and the speakers tell the crowd where to go afterwards. The atmosphere is no less festive, no less family-oriented than the opposition rallies. But the numbers are less and the movement less sustained. There is, perhaps, less to lose for this group, less sense of outrage and danger.

Back on Enqelab, the sun slips under the clouds and light begins to fall sideways across the crowds, hands turn golden in the last part of the day. Dasta bala! Dasta bala! Hands in the air! Hands in the air! All arms are up, spread into the familiar sign of victory. The crowd reaches the square but cannot enter, does not need to enter, this spot will do. On either side of a nearby underpass a call and response begins, arms and legs hang over the guardrail, bodies lean over the road that runs several meters below. From one side of the underpass: "Mir Hossein!" From the other: "Ya Hossein!" From one side: "Mir Hossein!" Now from the other: "Ya Hossein!" Cars and motorcycles raise the alarm, young men with green scarves over their faces ninja-style run and hop between the traffic. They urge the crowd and cars on, MC style.

Two large passenger buses emerge from under the tunnel and the drivers lay on their horns, making the crowd go wild, they love it. It is all noise. The cheer goes up, "Gofte boodim age taqalob bishe, Iran ghiamat mishe!" We told you that if they cheat, Iran will explode!

We leave the square and head north along Jenah Expressway towards Ariashahr or Sadiqia Square. It is only at this point that the enormity of what is happening becomes clear. In the diminishing light there and stretching towards the rising foothills that mark the upper reaches of Tehran one can only see person after another. Cars and buses that have made the mistake of turning into this crowd have been engulfed.

The story takes a bad turn; all does not end well. Seeing the camera around my neck, several people rush up to me, frantically urging me to go take pictures, shouting that they are killing us all! Behind a wall, in an alleyway set off from the road, a confrontation is taking place between one spike of the crowd and basiji forces, holed up in a base. There is the unsettling pop-pop-pop of gunfire, a plume of black smoke rises into the sky.

A crowd is gathering in the alley and men rush forward to throw rocks while others tell them to stop, stop, that's what they want! A police officer, alone, rushes in to help, brought in by part of the crowd. Suddenly he is surrounded, confronted violently by angry protestors. A great confusion ensues as water bottles and rocks are hurled at the cop; 10-15 men form a perimeter around the officer to shield him their hands up begging the crowd to control themselves to let this man pass, he has come to help. During the worst moment, we see the terrified policeman pressed against a courtyard wall, his hat has been knocked off, he shouts that he is here to help. Finally, thankfully, the situation is controlled, the police officer joins in the chanting, and he is allowed to go into the alley to help...

The chant goes up, the same as was used during the 1979 Revolution: "He who kills my brother, will be killed by me!"

The wail of an ambulance. A boy, he could not have been older than 14, is rushed through the crowd, carried sideways at the head and the legs by three men. Foam is coming out of his mouth and his eyes. There is no way of knowing for sure but there are reports that 5 to 7 people have been shot, have been killed right here in this spot. I see a young man hold up his right hand, it is covered in blood...

They found a way to make it last. Everyone says that in a few days the protests will be stopped, what's the point of going out, but when the moment comes everyone is here. To stop this now would take a tremendous display of violence and thus far, blessedly, that has not happened.

Still, at this point, the crowd remains uncertain...An apt if unimaginative metaphor would be a school of fish. Everyone moves in one direction, then suddenly shoulders drop and they run for their lives the opposite way. Riqdan! Riqdan! They're attacking!!! The mass looks back and sees that there are already hands held up beckoning the crowd to stop, to come back, to be brave and not run.

Fear. It would be a unfair mismatch if fear were to disappear. Do not believe the lie that this is a story of middle-class, urbane Iran set against the great multitude of obdurate peasants, the supposedly authentic Iran. That is a myth, what Juan Cole has called the "North Tehran fallacy," no different than the bogus notion that Middle America is the True America. Iran's heart and voting population lies in its cities as much as in the countryside...It was in the cities that the 1979 Revolution took place, and the 6-8 million new voters that showed up at the booth to vote, many for the first and only time in their lives, did not emerge from Iran's diminishing villages.

Tehran is fast becoming two. In the late afternoon and lasting until around dinner time it is a place of peaceful civic celebration, a disneyland of political action for the whole family to participate. At night, the mood shifts abruptly, and the capital becomes a battleground, a city in which fear stalks on motorbikes mounted in helmeted pairs...

It is like a dream. We wake up in the morning, our legs and voices sore, wondering if this is really happening, anxious for what will come next.

A Palace Coup -- sent 3:13 am, 14 June 2009

It's becoming increasingly clear that is now a palace coup, with Hashemi Rafsanjani the lynchpin as to what will happen next. He is the sole member of the original "yaran" of Khomeini, or original Khomeini's original team, with power and influence. All eyes are on him now -- the Guardian Council has to accept the election results and it remains to be seen what Hashemi will do. As for the streets, the mood is incredibly tense and immanently explosive. In Vali Asr square yesterday afternoon, under darkening skies, crowds had gathered as well as cops. It was as if each side knew that a fight had to occur but were uncertain when to start.

Cops made the first move by occasionally running into the crowd with batons swinging, telling them to leave the area. People would bolt then rush back, cat and mouse, cat and mouse. They weren't just running away thought...I personally witnessed a cop fall to ground after he swung his baton. Immediately two young men jumped on top of him and began wailing on him, then ran away. Trash cans are being set on fire, folks are busting windows, chanting "death to the dictator." The chants have not yet escalated beyond this point...the demand is that their vote be respected.

It is, however, a mistake to think that any restoration of the election results will occur. The battle is elsewhere now and while the obvious theft of the election has enraged and disappointed millions, the action now is to demonstrate that folks aren't just going to take it. Clearly a bad strategy on the part of the leadership as they could have easily given another 10-20 years of energy to the system by sacrificing the current president ...Legitimacy, much debated by social scientists, turns out to actually matter. It's not just force that rules, though that appears to be the case right now in Iran. Short-term calculations (get rid of the old generation of leadership for a new breed of revolutionary) will prove to be disastrous. 9-year old sons, for pete's sake, accompanied their fathers to vote, standing in line for hours. That disappointment will not be easily remedied...it will
never be healed.

The talk now is coup, of course, a palace coup in the style of a Fujimori. It is a remarkable turn of events but one thing is for certain, the many millions who showed up to vote, a great many for the first time ever, were not fooled. Their vote counted because it made the situation black and white. If they had not voted, then Dr. A would have won anyways...Now in no uncertain terms can it be said that Iranian politics has ambiguity or complexity. The movement towards a more bureaucratic-military style rule, in which legitimacy based on an ideology and some semblance of democratic practice, is done.

The 22 of Khordad, June 12, will be an important date in Iran, particularly because, as I've noted, this vote wasn't just college students causing a ruckus. Grandmothers, fathers, daughters, and moms all showed up to stand for hours on end. They will not be just passive observers of what the "kids" are doing.

-- Anonymous Student in Tehran

There are now nine dead, according to BBC Persia reports, and dozens injured.

I am getting notes that police are raiding homes and apartments and not just arresting people but engaged in wanton destruction of property.

Mousavi doubts a positive nod from the Guardian Council.

Hundreds of thousands demonstrated against the election declaration.

I'll be discussing all of this shortly after 8 pm EST on Keith Olbermann's Countdown.

More soon.

-- Steve Clemons

These dispatches were written over the last several days. They do not include references to the most recent events and violence. There are others on the way that deal with what has been happening since the announcement by Iran's Ministry of Interior that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the presidency outright.

They are written by an Iran-American university student who prefers for the time being to remain anonymous.

Dispatch from Tehran: Debate Night -- 11 June 2009

Iranians have been treated to an experience without precedent in the 30 years of the Islamic Republic of Iran: six back-to-back live and unscripted debates between all four of the candidates for the presidency of the Islamic Republic.

Each candidate is slated to pair off once with each of his three opponents and while the rules state that the debates are to be between the two men present in the studio that particular night, the truth has been that one candidate of the four has been put up for collective judgement: Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Last Wednesday was the big night, the match up between the two giants of the election, Ahmadinejad and "Engineer" Mir Hossein Mousavi, the leading reformist candidate and close ally of former president Mohammad Khatami.

Only the second of the slated six debates, Tehran was buzzing.

For one night at least, even the Islamic Republic's Founding Father could not compete. At a local high school ceremony honoring the 20th anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's passing, you could feel the tension rising as the program ran long. People wanted to get out and get home to catch the beginning of the action. I passed by kids on my way out, little guys too young to really know what was going on but old enough to get that this was a Big Deal.

They were half-screaming half-speaking to each other in that way that only kids know how, stumbling over the big words: "Oooh, oooh, are you going to see the mon, mono, monozere (debate)? It's tonight you know!"

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Ahmadinejad showed up in his usual get-up, "the people's wear" consisting of gray jacket and white shirt, no tie of course. The current president has a twitchy nose tic and smiles a lot. It's not the kind of smile that signals "I like you." He tells you he that he does ("My dear friend Mr. Mousavi, I like you...") but it's really faint praise on the way to damnation ("...that's why I feel sooo sorry for you, and I really didn't want to say this, but you've come here with your facts all wrong.").

If Ahmadinejad came off as a street fighter ready to cut you with both a knife and a smirk, the man sitting across the table from him cast a decidedly more tepid figure. One of the first things you notice about Mir Hossein Mousavi is the color white: He sports a white beard and hair, swooped to the side in a youthful style. He has exceptionally white hands. The only spot of color on his face or in his figure are in his eyebrows, two dark hyphens racing across his brow. The lack of color is even more exceptional given that all of Tehran is currently awash in green, the official color of Mousavi's candidacy.

In the span of just a few weeks and acting almost completely at the grassroots level his campaign has mounted a Green Revolution. There isn't a green headscarf, necktie, or bolt of cloth to be found in the city...

A former prime minister and first-generation revolutionary, Mousavi's demeanour resembles a metal spring, wound and packed tight into its casing. There is little motion and drama in his character -- this is a man not blessed with the gifts of charisma. At times awkward in his delivery, he has a propensity to pepper his sentences with the word "chiz," the Farsi equivalent of "um" or even "thingamebob" (a YouTube clip lampooning this verbal habit is already up).

Nonetheless, Mousavi's cool presentation worked well set against the out-of-control heat of his opponent. You get the sense that this guy knows what he's talking about. Mousavi is, to put it bluntly, Obama without the charisma.

Which is not to say that he is a pushover. An ethnic Turk, Mousavi is apt to get hot quickly, the coil springing out of its casing in a fury, only to retract and cool back down again. This would happen later in the night, when Ahmadinejad made the unfortunate decision to go after Mousavi's wife...

Anyone who has seen Ahmadinejad in interviews with American or European reporters can't help but be impressed by his uncanny ability to turn a discussion inside-out. Interviewers frequently find themselves the interviewee ("Sir, you saw that Iran is on the correct path but we see that the world is arrayed against you..." "What world? What countries are you talking about? The entire world or an arrogant few?").

Typically this boorish behavior is interpreted as some sort of ancient "Persian way," a supposedly Iranian propensity for dissembling and verbal maneuvering developed over centuries of survival. In tonight's context, against another Iranian well versed, one presumes, in the Persian forensics, there was little opportunity for Ahmadinejad to get away with his old tricks...

The candidates spoke in turns and had four turns of roughly 10 minutes each, loosely monitored by a non-descript and reticent timekeeper sitting between the two men. Ahmadinejad regularly ran over his time and by the end had none left for him to respond to Mousavi's closing statement. This seemed to not matter to the sitting president and he began to haphazardly lob comments and accusations at Mousavi off camera and worse of all, off-microphone.

It came off like someone running in and out of the room to deliver bad news in a panic. Mousavi, with eyes closed and hand raised firmly blocked Ahmadinejad's verbal outbursts like Darth Vader stopping Han Solo's well-aimed shot in Cloud City: "Excuse me. Excuse me, you've had your chance to speak..." To its credit, the state-run network held the line and did not grant the president any sort of disposition. This did not prevent Ahmadinejad from lamely getting in a final zinger, Costanza-style, as they cut to closing credits...in effect substantiating Mousavi's claim that this is a man who does not follow the rules or care for the law. That this latter point is getting seriously play -- -rayat e ghanun, obeying the law -- is an important development in the political discourse of Iran.

As I hinted earlier, the most dramatic part of the evening came when Ahmadinejad mysteriously held up a stack of papers with a black and white passport-size photo of a woman clearly visible on the front. Ominously, he asked Mousavi, "I can speak tonight about a woman, someone you know, someone who has been at your side often these past days.

I have information about her. Begam? Begam? Should I say? Should I say?" Mousavi, clearly unnerved by this bizarre and unexpected turn, told the president to go right ahead and on his next turn Ahmadinejad dived right into what may have been the turning point in the election. The file that the president had in his possession was that of Mousavi's wife, a remarkable figure in her own right and the first wife to ever play a prominent role in an Iranian election (she is already being called the "Iranian Michelle"). Highly educated, with two advanced degrees to her name, viewers were now subjected to the sight of a sitting president telling them that her degrees were phony and obtained by cheating.

Ahmadinejad never mentioned her name or her relation to Mousavi but there was no mistaking about whom he was speaking about...

In my next post I'll describe how this episode immediately became the source material for a million chants and jeers...

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Ahmadinejad conjured up Reagan and his supporters at one point during the night. Like many of the 40th president's supporters, he cast history and decades of inherited political leadership to the wind to claim that his administration and his administration only that "won" the three decades-old Iranian Cold War with the U.S.. Iran had stood strong against the Americans during his term and this is why we now hear Obama referring to Iran as the "Islamic Republic" and the U.S. no longer actively seeking regime change. Of course, this assertion simultaneously condemned and negated the policies of those leaders who had come before him, including Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khatami. He combined this jab with a sustained attack on the corruption of Rafsanjani, going so far as to single out his sons and daughter for their graft. Except amongst Ahmadinejad's supporters, this latter line has had little play given that the wealth of Iran's former president and speaker of parliament is old news. The willingness, even recklessness of Ahmadinejad to burn every bridge tying him to Iran's insular leadership was breathtaking.

If Ahmadinejad wanted to assume the mantle of an Iranian Reagan, Mousavi was keen to cast him as a Nixon, more interested in "paravande sazi" or building files against political enemies than solving the problems of the country. He flatly told Ahmadinejad that he did not obey the law and stepped all over them whenever these worked against his personal interests. Mousavi went so far as accusing his opponent of heading down the path of dictatorship. This was incredible---on live television!---Mousavi said what many Iranians feel but had not until that point dared to say out loud: this man behaves like a despot. Mousavi conjured up "Tricky Dick," calling Ahmadinejad a liar to his face, a motif that would be repeated by the other candidates during subsequent debates and by the growing numbers of demonstrators out on the streets. This man lies, one of the greatest sins that a Muslim can commit...

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Anyone who has watched these debates between the four candidates and can claim with a straight face that "they're all the same" -- in effect asserting that there is no meaningful politics in Iran -- is making a big mistake. It is a sentiment akin to what we heard a lot of during 2000, when conventional wisdom held that the only thing separating Al Gore from George Bush was bad lighting and earth tone jackets. Clearly this is not the case.

The fixation in the U.S. with the pre-screening of candidates for the presidency or parliament doesn't help, as it distracts from the very real differences between the four men running for president of Iran.

Above all, it is quite evident that Iranians no longer accept the premise that they should protest by not participating in the electoral process.

To put it another way, not voting is now seen as the same as voting. For the wrong guy. Four years of runaway inflation, increased trade embargoes, an already devastated international reputation made worse, and nothing of substance to show for it is evidence enough that "change" is needed, one that supersedes the politics of the past (indeed, Mehdi Karrobi, the only cleric running, has adopted Obama's "Change" as a campaign slogan -- not to be outdone, Ahmadinejad has posters up with "Ma mitavanim" or "We Can").

Increasingly, the old political categories are eroding. What does it mean when one of the supposedly conservative candidates, a man responsible for forming the Revolutionary Guard, recently articulated a well-reasoned case for Iran to move away from a centralized public authority to a federal system similar to the one found in the U.S.? When "principalists" start sounding like Thomas Jefferson you know that something is afoot at the Circle K...

For the higher-ups here in Iran, elections are seen as a means of ritual validation. To their way of thinking, everyone who turns up to vote, votes yes to the Revolution and the idea of the Islamic Republic. Who the candidates are and who ultimately wins matters less. What's important is that the domestic and especially international audiences see that Iranians turned out.

Of course, the kids that I see day and night filling the streets, wearing green and chanting Mousavi's name, are not obliged to feel the same way. Whether or not Iran's youth, some 70% of the population, believe in the system remains unclear but it's certain that this time around they're willing to use whatever political resource at their disposal to make their lives just a little bit better, which in this case is their right to a single vote against Ahmadinejad and for Mousavi.

They'll go to vote with the democracy they've been given and while it's not perfect, in the absence of viable alternatives and faced with the impossibility of suffering through another four years of Ahmadinejad, they'll take it. They sure as hell are having a great time while they're at...

If Iranians do this, if they are successful in throwing out Ahmadinejad after four years, it will be an unprecedented event in the history of Iran. It will also put Iran one better than the U.S., which when given the chance over four years ago to end a disastrous presidency, failed to do so...

Final First Round Dispatch from Tehran: End Game -- 12 June 2009

Tehran has turned into one big disco, or perhaps more accurately, a series of open-air roller rinks spread out across the city. For the past week folks have gathered by the thousands, even tens of thousands in public squares, circling around each other on foot, on motorcycle, in their cars. They show up around 4 or 5 in the afternoon and stay together well into the next day, at least 3 or 4 in the morning, laughing, cheering, breaking off to debate then returning back into the fray.

The historian Afshin Marashi writes that the late monarchical rulers of Europe in the 19th century redesigned urban landscapes around broad boulevards and expansive traffic circles in order to give state and society a way to gather together. Adapted to Iran's young capital by the Qajar king Naser al-Din Shah, spectacles, ceremonies, celebrations, and parades were to constitute a new style of politics for royalist regimes as the emergence of mass society had put an end to the viability of the self-referential sovereign, holed up in his castle and courtly life. Public spaces made it possible for both ruler and the ruled to see and to be seen, a Studio 54 for king and minions alike.

What we are witnessing in Tehran these past several nights is a new elucidation of Baron Haussmann's design. Society has come out to see society. A girl hangs off the edge of a car window Dukes of Hazzard style and throws her shoulders back for the crowd. Four boys park their cars facing each other in a circle, the highbeams producing an impromptu dance floor for them to show off their moves. Everyone watches everyone else and we wonder how all of this could be happening.

Who are all of these people? Where did they come from? The same citizens of the capital that I used to pass by and bump into every day. We have our eyes on each other, it feels, for the first time.

The late, great Polish journalist and chronicler Ryszard Kapuscinscki, in Tehran during the 1979 Revolution, described how Iranians during that time had become, seemingly overnight, instant comrades. A witness to the fall of the Shah, he observed that revolutions above all re-enchant their participants. Something similar is happening now, I think. It is difficult to describe the feeling of automatic friendship that comes so easily these past few days.

Folks pass each other, in their cars or on the sidewalk and flash victory signs. We are all old friends. But what will happen when it's all over? What happens the next day?

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It's not just the squares that are being taken by the crowd. This has been a campaign full of symbolic reinterpretations, not least of which has been the color green.

The story goes that on a campaign stop in Mashad, Iran's holiest site of pilgrimage, a young supporter urged Mir Hossein Mousavi to adopt green as the symbol of his campaign. Green, the virescent emblem of Islam and seyyeds, those that can claim lineal descent from the Holy Prophet.

Ahmadinejad supporters have tried to keep up with the symbolic politics. It is reported that at first they chose the color red to represent his candidacy. This was an ill-advised move, given that red is traditionally associated with Shams, the man held responsible for the martyrdom of Imam Hussein at the Battle of Karbala and archenemy of Shi'ite everywhere. The campaign soon switched to the flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Red white and green, with "Allah" in the center, Iran's flag contains all of the tensions and contradictions that animate Iran: Islamic, Republic, religion and nation.

The rearticulations are new, but they work because the symbols are old and familiar. Everyone knows what the national flag is, or what green stands for. It's just that no one ever thought to put them to such use. These repackagings have produced a good amount of protest and consternation, and not just by the opponents of the two major candidates.

"Who does he think he is, using our flag? It belongs to all of us." A women hands me a piece of paper advising me that the color green is holy and not to be used for something as profane as politics. Mostly you hear individuals express concern that things will never be the same. Whoever wins, the flag will now carry the weight of Ahmadinejad's presidential campaign, green will evoke the memory of "Musavi-chiha" flooding the streets and boulevards.

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Ahmadi bye-bye! Ahmadi bye-bye!
(sang to the tune of la-lalala-la-la, la-lalala-la-la)

Doctor, boro doctor! Doctor, boro doctor!
(Dr. go see the doctor! Dr. go see the doctor!)

Ahmadinejad was given an extra 20 minutes last night by the debate commission to answer accusations made against him by his opponents in his absence. It was wryly noted by some that this was a good thing, as the jokes and chants were starting to get old. We needed some fresh material.

Tavarom e nan joon e Mahmoud famide, in kootooli na famide.
(The inflation that Mahmoud's nana has understood, we wish that this "shrimp" could!)

Age taqalob nashe, Ahmadi panjom mishe!