Well, this is all interesting but confusing. Jon Weinberg offers no analysis.

It sounds like Ahmadinejad is trying to save his position in Iran, under growing pressure from Rafsanjani and Mohammed Khatami, by distancing himself in some way from Khamenei and the more hard-line, ultra-conservative clerics and by moving a bit toward the moderates.

The initial press reports suggested Mashaie had provoked the ire of the hardliners by speaking too kindly of Israel among other things. Ahmadinejad was also criticized by figures in the Basij for the appointment. I wonder if Ahmadinejad is mainly trying to send a domestic or international signal here. My guess is domestic.

Ahmadinejad may be losing credibility among the Iranian elite. But the key development here might be that it is the conservative clerical elite that is most rapidly losing power and credibility. By appointing Mashai and sacking Khamenei's spies and loyalists in his cabinet, the Ahmadinejad camp is now joining the Mousavi camp, the Khatami camp and the Rafsanjani camp in challenging Khamenei. It sure looks like everyone thinks Khamenei is a sinking ship, and that they are scrambling to avoid being sucked down with it when the next round of protests occur.

More on Mashai's background. He appears to be an internationalist of some kind, having taken over from Khatami in running the Center for Dialogue among Civilizations:

http://www.iranembassy.or.id/news_detail.php?idne=1344&idn=1&idsn=

... and here's Trita Parsi's column today on Iran:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/07/30/make_them_wait

Isn't it possible that this is all just political theater designed to portray Ahmadinejad as being independent of Khamenei?

The Mashai appointment was initially depicted as a sort of nepotism, since I believe he is the father of his son's wife. Because of Mashai's "we are friends of all people, including the Israelis" that he came under sharp criticism from Khamenei and all hardliners. Recently there have been statements that the real concern is that Mashai is in some strange messianic sect.

Khamenei first let his displeasure be known privately and when Ahmadinejad didn't respond he had his statement read on the air, forcing Ahmadinejad to act.

Because he was forced to act and since the intelligence minister had interjected himself into the dispute, Ahmadinejad fired him and a number of other cabinet ministers favored by hardliners. However when it was pointed out that that would require a vote on new appointees, he decided to just fire the intelligence minister.

This doesn't strike me as someone who is moving closer to the reform camp but rather someone that is piqued at his hardline benefactors.

I am cautiously optimistic on all the developments as Rafsanjani seems to be pulling those hardliners that have a sense of justice from the more illegitimate hardliners around Khamenei, who isn't even a Grand Ayatollah as I at one time thought. The wildcard is the Revolutionary Guard which, for now, seem to be on Khamenei's side.

We should all be enthused that a religious leader can pnitifcate to make half a cabinet resign as sign of 'democracy' in action.

One nation under.....

Mr Ahmadinejad also announced his choice for the powerful intelligence portfolio after sacking the previous holder in a row over another ..