Al Jazeera’s video of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak swearing in intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as the first vice president of Egypt in nearly three decades has many clamoring to learn whatever they can about this person who may actually succeed Mubarak.
Suleiman, one of the long-serving national security technocrats in Egypt, has been a key manager of Egypt’s lucrative, military-aid lubed relationship with the United States and has been one of the key interlocutors with Israel.
One of the most disappointing encounters I had with Suleiman was during the time he led efforts to patch together a revived “unity government” in Palestine, tying back together Fatah and Hamas that had split in a bloody and violent civil war which resulted in each party governing different parts of Palestine.
Egypt was selected by the Arab League to lead these talks — and Suleiman became the Egyptian “George Mitchell” for these unity efforts. Fatah and Hamas came close several times to a deal — but ultimately, the United States privately conveyed to Mubarak and to Suleiman that it didn’t want to see the process succeed.
The Saudis who supported a restored unity government in Palestine were highly irritated when Egypt, supposedly brokering a rapprochement between Hamas and Fatah actually sabotaged the effort.
Suleiman, intel chief and now Egypt’s VP, was America’s proxy.
– Steve Clemons
Israel has dropped us too. Need I list the ways?
In light of the FACT that Mubarak has unleashed thugs on the citizens, does anyone here think he should be allowed to stay ONE MORE DAY?!
Who didn’t think he would do this after he already used to police to terrorize the people?
I also read that Israel sent weapons to help their pal. They need regime change too.
“Instead of pressuring Mubarak, Obama gave the Cairo speech to try to flatter and cajole Mubarak and the other Arabs. It was a pathetic failure, as anyone familiar with the region could have predicted.” (nadine, 9:36PM)
Or it may have been setting it up and providing more rope for Mubarak to hang himself with in due course.
I generally take POA’s views on the subject of ‘Obama’ fairly seriously (0.9 probability) but I still reserve a small residue 10% for the off-chance possibility that Obama is a change-agent genius.
Agreed: his modus operandi is highly ambiguous, but so far he is refusing (at least in the public eye) to resort to the Roman Caesar model that GWBush and Cheney propagated for nearly a decade (perhaps with Afghanistan/Pakistan being the exception).
I suspect this approach is part of the “change we need” code. However, if this is the case, then how effective it will be is yet to determined.
It is like watching a reformed nicotine addict sniffing the air in a lift after a heavy smoker has alighted. Whether he is some Blade character with a controlled yearning for the same blood his enemies lust for is always at the back of the mind.
He’s been dealt a bad deck so far, but if he pulls this off then he’ll have an Egyptian transformation and Israeli-Palestinian peace deal done by 2012 — just in time for a pre-victory lap with Hillary C. plodding along behind looking and smelling more like a Cheney with Kissinger aftershave (ok, bad metaphor, but you get the picture) than a candidate for election.
Three birds with one stone — even a historic ‘David’ could not achieve that (or so the story goes)!
jdledell, no use arguing with someone who cannot explain events except in terms of politics. Limited vision.
“Nadine – What is all this crap about the US abandoning it’s allies and losing respect in the region. We have been telling Mubarak to liberalize for years and he has stiffed us. This last ridiculous election was the turning point – he is NO LONGER OUR ALLY. We did not drop him- he dropped us.”
jd, Bush told Mubarak to liberalize. Obama didn’t. That’s why the Egyptian elections under Bush were freer than last year’s elections, which were the least free in decades. With not a peep from Obama either before or after.
Instead of pressuring Mubarak, Obama gave the Cairo speech to try to flatter and cajole Mubarak and the other Arabs. It was a pathetic failure, as anyone familiar with the region could have predicted.
That’s what comes of listening to pro-Islamist advisers like Robert Malley, who must be doing the happy dance at the success of his favorite clients in Lebanon, Gaza and now perhaps Egypt as well.
Nadine – What is all this crap about the US abandoning it’s allies and losing respect in the region. We have been telling Mubarak to liberalize for years and he has stiffed us. This last ridiculous election was the turning point – he is NO LONGER OUR ALLY. We did not drop him- he dropped us.
Now this is non serious from the neocons you’ve learned to expect it from:
“Leading Neoconservative Frank Gaffney Argues Muslim Brotherhood Has
Obviously among the neocons and the Israelis there are conflicting opinions.
Different assesments of how much damage this might do Israel…more damage if it suceeds or fails? ..goes on longer or ends sooner with US prodding a compromise?….better for other populations to also revolt against they hope Islamic rulers as in Iran…or better to smooth this out so as not to scare off other US-Isr ruling friendlies?
It’s complicated.
I am sure somewhere there are some realist saying O should make a clear cut choice now in favor of the street –simply because it is always easier to cultivate a US ruler puppet to US interest than to win over an entire population to admire and cooperate with the US and this is an opportunity for the latter.
Oddly enough the Egyptian revolt is one in which the realistic and the moral choice is the same.
Obviously among the neocons and the Israelis there are conflicting opinions.
Different assesments of how much damage this might do Israel…more damage if it suceeds or fails? ..goes on longer or ends sooner with US prodding a compromise?….better for other populations to also revolt against they hope Islamic rulers as in Iran…or better to smooth this out so as not to scare off other US-Isr ruling friendlies?
It’s complicated.
I am sure somewhere there are some realist saying O should make a clear cut choice now in favor of the street –simply because it is always easier to cultivate a US ruler puppet to US interest than to win over an entire population to admire and cooperate with the US and this is an opportunity for the latter.
Oddly enough the Egyptian revolt is one in which the realistic and the moral choice is the same.
Obviously among the neocons and the Israelis there are conflicting opinions.
Different assesments of how much damage this might do Israel…more damage if it suceeds or fails? ..goes on longer or ends sooner with US prodding a compromise?….better for other populations to also revolt against they hope Islamic rulers as in Iran…or better to smooth this out so as not to scare off other US-Isr ruling friendlies?
It’s complicated.
I am sure somewhere there are some realist saying O should make a clear cut choice now in favor of the street –simply because it is always easier to cultivate a US ruler puppet to US interest than to win over an entire population to admire and cooperate with the US and this is an opportunity for the latter.
Oddly enough the Egyptian revolt is one in which the realistic and the moral choice is the same.
Yeah, a little glib perhaps. At least if you buy into the insanity we called the cold war. But at least we didn’t have to buy Aswan.
“30 years as a ‘bought’ ally (and not even for us), with all the acoutrements of mass repression of the people, should buy Mubarak exactly nothing except opprobrium”
What do you mean “not for us”? Do you think US interests were not served by flipping Egypt from a strong ally of the USSR to a strong ally of the US? Can you even remember the Cold War? This is such a myopic and simplistic view of US foreign policy!
Unclear whether the shots are only being fired in the air or not.
The speech was not well received!
30 years as a ‘bought’ ally (and not even for us), with all the acoutrements of mass repression of the people, should buy Mubarak exactly nothing except opprobrium.
I agree about the corn syrup, and with much of what Questions says about our wonderful democracy. However, if one looks at the economic statistics, particularly inflation-adjusted take home pay of workers, percent of wealth aggregating to the top 1%, debt to income ratio of citizens, not to mention the macro factors, the US has been on a 30 year crash to destroy the middle class, accelerated massively during the Raygun years.
Paul, I found a lot to ponder in the Cohen piece as well. It is a thought piece that perhaps the Egyptians who have been under the boot so long are not quite yet up to contemplating. Or maybe they are.
The Egyptians have taken to the streets before. The last time was the bread riots of 1977. There is no reason to believe these demonstrations per se are particularly transforming – unless they usher in a Muslim Brotherhood regime. In that case the Egyptians will learn too late to be careful what they wish for.
But since the Egyptians didn’t take the right lessons after embracing Nazism, Socialism, and Pan-Arabism by turn, one rather doubts they will have an epiphany after they become as disillusioned with Islamist rule as the Iranians already are.
Tahrir Sq. is getting violent.
I think what Roger Cohen says in his NYT op-ed is important:
“Now, Arabs are thinking about their own injustices. With
great courage, they are saying
“…Now suppose the US, having some 300 million people were miraculously confronted with a deluge of 8-10 million people on the mall (and everywhere else) in Washington. Now who would be dictating terms?…”
Nah, would never happen. Too much high-fructose corn syrup in the American diet – making it impossible for them to lift themselves off the couch, or take their eyes off from Fox News.
DonS,
In general we don’t feel the need to march 8-10 million of us because we have so many other ways to get pissed off and let the world know.
We have elections really frequently. ANYone can run for something. We have open internet and comment sites. We have GUNS and a fair amount of wealth.
I don’t know the stats, but I’m guessing that the number of people living on 2 dollars a day is pretty limited.
We don’t have any unelected leaders hanging out for 30 years.
BUT, if the oligarchy gets going full tilt, this could indeed be our future.
I recommend that the visage of the out-of-touch-Mubarak, the denialist-Mubarak be taped up on every billionaire’s shaving mirror. Mubarak doesn’t DESERVE a graceful exit and he doesn’t DESERVE what he has, and perhaps this non-deserving thing is a little more widespread than many think.
If we end up with enough people living on a couple of dollars a day, we too will show up by the millions.
“…Now suppose the US, having some 300 million people were miraculously confronted with a deluge of 8-10 million people on the mall (and everywhere else) in Washington. Now who would be dictating terms?…”
Nah, too much high-fructose corn syrup in the American diet – making it impossible for them to lift themselves off the couch, or take their eyes off Fox News.
“Omar Suleiman”
“I would only add that even though Obama shouldn’t make a public statement of the form, “Mubarak must go,” he should issue a public statement in which he expresses admiration for the courage and determination of the Egyptian people to bring hope and democratic self-government to their country, indicates that Americans look forward to the continuation of friendship and cooperation between Egyptians and the people of United States, and reiterates that we will continue to extend an open hand of respect and partnership toward all peoples in the Middle East who seek peace, international cooperation and a better common future.” (Dan Kervick)
I think Paul’s point about considering how this message would be taken in other Arab countries was well taken. IOW, does being a loyal American ally for 30 years buy you anything? Anything at all? If not, does being an enemy of America cost you anything? These are primordial questions which our current foreign policy geniuses seem quite unable to even consider.
Any moves to ease Mubarak out should have been in private only. But we see the WH is leaking its changing and contradictory moves all over. Amateur hour.
If both Obama AND some groups of young rebels, as well as
comrades from the army could say some nice, flattering words
to him after 30 years of service to his country etc., he may
perhaps have been willing to accept retirement in the company
of retirees in Florida, Saudi Arabia, or Tel Aviv, but this is of
course not a realistic option.
No, this stubborn old soldier will somehow be forced out of
power.
“What he is craving for however, is also dignity, an honorable exit, something the young people in the streets are not willing to give this man ”
And, indeed, the ‘optics’ and the payment the young people have earned, is palpable. So while one scenario has Mubarak agreeing that of course he will not run, and then finding some way to his liking to disappear from view more or less quietly, that’s not in the cards. This what you’re thinking Paul?
Egypt has some 78 million people.
Now suppose the US, having some 300 million people were miraculously confronted with a deluge of 8-10 million people on the mall (and everywhere else) in Washington. Now who would be dictating terms?
I agree with Abrams and Kervick here. Mubarak being in charge
of the transition is completely out of touch with the realities on
the ground, and would also just give him the opportunity to
ruthlessly persecute his political opponents through the
security apparatus and manipulate the outcome.
His statement that he will die on Egypt’s soil sounded ominous
as well. What he is craving for however, is also dignity, an
honorable exit, something the young people in the streets are
not willing to give this man who according to himself has a
PHD in stubbornness.
e.g. Is one of those esteemed advisors that’s pushing for the other US/Israel puppet “Omar Soliman” to take over?
“Elliott Abrams, who served as a deputy national security advisor in the George W. Bush administration, said Tuesday that if Mubarak wanted to stay in office until the next elections, that “won’t suffice…”
Yeah, but who does he want in his place — I’m not sure it “ElBaradei”?
No indication in the LA Times story whether Abrams was speaking for the administration or just as a source for the story.
Always important to know what these neocons are up to. Bolton as been clear: back Mubarak or bomb Iran sooner. But with Abrams, and ducking out of the recent advisors group meeting, who knows. OK so Abrams carries water for the administration position, apparently at this point. How much, down the road, does this cost in terms of neocon agenda?
Only one thought.
“…On the other hand, since we don’t really know what’s what there, we don’t know how much of a power vacuum there would be,or even,..”
Yeah right! Awfully quiet on “Mohamed ElBaradei” are’nt we — in fact most of the Western press is. God — our “democratic” media stinks.
I actually agree with Elliot Abrams views, as related by the LA Times article that Paul linked to:
“Elliott Abrams, who served as a deputy national security advisor in the George W. Bush administration, said Tuesday that if Mubarak wanted to stay in office until the next elections, that “won’t suffice.”
“For him to say that he’ll remain in charge for eight months and run the transition and run a free election in September, but simply not be a candidate himself, that’s not going to cut it,” said Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “That’s not going to get people out of the streets.”
“Abrams said the U.S. should not publicly demand that Mubarak step down sooner. Such messages should be delivered privately, he said. The Obama administration needs to avoid perceptions that it is dictating when foreign leaders should leave office, he said.”
I would only add that even though Obama shouldn’t make a public statement of the form, “Mubarak must go,” he should issue a public statement in which he expresses admiration for the courage and determination of the Egyptian people to bring hope and democratic self-government to their country, indicates that Americans look forward to the continuation of friendship and cooperation between Egyptians and the people of United States, and reiterates that we will continue to extend an open hand of respect and partnership toward all peoples in the Middle East who seek peace, international cooperation and a better common future.
Depressing speech.
So it would be terribly exciting for Mubarak to move to Hawaii tonight.
On the other hand, since we don’t really know what’s what there, we don’t know how much of a power vacuum there would be,or even, honestly, how many Mubarak loyalists there are floating around, that going slowly in the transition would make sense.
The crowd has a crowd-demand and crowd-identity. That’s not really the best way to govern, but it can be a good way to be stupid.
So if Mubarak takes two weeks to move to Hawaii, during which time caretakers are assembled, and markets are reassured and capital flight is reversed, that would be better.
Don’t underestimate the damage of capital flight on a transitional government.
And don’t underestimate the crowd. Read the ship of fools story in the Republic. It’s not a bad story right about now. Good bedtime reading.
“I believe in cautiousness and timing in this situation, that’s all.
“That was the main point in my initial comment on this subject yesterday. I hope that I’ve
clarified my position a bit as well…
Agree, Paul, and the view from here looks like caution is being exercised, some would say to a fault, at least as the days go by. On a practical level, the US has not much room to talk, much less prescribe, for others. And repairing the past? That’s not in the cards either, with the ever rightward drifting force pushing American politics. We the sheeple pay the price. We are told every day to sit down, shut up and bend over for the corporatist interest. Many of us insignificant people believe we need the equivalent of a revolution.
Your example of what happened to the Kurds, with the wetlands being drained and the brutality the resulted from Bush 1′s big mouth, is exactly on the money. That is why I used the word humble above.
BTW, of course, that is exactly the word junior Bush used to describe what his foreign policy would be if elected, so obviously words are pretty hollow, cheap things.
We’ve all got these neanderthals — France still has Le Pen, I think; Austria had their Heider, etc — none of whom does much credit to the world.
“U.S. envoy tells Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step aside.
Frank Wisner, an envoy sent to Cairo at President Obama’s request, tells Hosni Mubarak that he should not be
part of the ‘transition’ that the U.S. has called for. ‘This message was plainly rebuffed,’ says a source.”
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/sc-dc-0203-us-egypt-web-20110201,0,981825.story
Isn’t Mubarak 83? Why the hell would he be running for president again anyway?
DonS, every policy there is has collateral damage.
I was merely pointing out that the US policy that made us allies of Saudi Arabia and Egypt grew out of the Cold War and were realist, not neocon, policies.
NH: “May Obama have the time to scrub the blood from his hands each night.”
“…Oh, please. You have no idea what is going to happen between now and the elections,…”
Yeah, coz Mubarak and his thugs are such a friendly and forgiving bunch!
“…and you have no idea what Obama’s position on any events might be. Egyptians have driven this whole revolution, not the US, and it is up to Egyptians to see to it that inter-party violence doesn’t break out during any transition period…”
There’s a little matter of US $2 billion in aid m’friend… a bucket load leverage there that could be used “behind the scenes” that could make the “transition” a whole lot easier and “peaceful”. But I doubt Obama’s got the balls to do the right thing — after bringing “Elliott Abrams” into the WH (of all people) to give him advice.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0111/Egypt_experts_head_to_WH_powwow.html?showall
“WASHINGTON
Maybe we are now seeing what the US position has been all along.
Support the people publicly but use the Egyptian military as the people’s balancer in a ‘compromise’ for the Egyptians.
Their demand that Mubarak depart vr. making them accept Suliman as the ‘interim’ authority for future elections as the only solution.
Obviously this is a game also of attrition..how long can this go on without total chaos and economic breakdown in Egypt..which would make it even worse for the US….so the US is taking a dangerous chance there.
Sending Frank Wizner, the US official, who negotiated the Egyptian- Israeli border to talk to Mubarak is probably another story in itself. Some speculate that it was to ask Mubarak to step down–I don’t think so.
In the end –can the Egyptian protest outlast the US and Mubarak.
Seems to me the US is once again fucking itself and Egypt with it’s typical “oh so many pressing “contingencies” policy…how we can protect our old friends of the US policies and Israel without being exposed as total hypocritical assholes.
NH: “May Obama have the time to scrub the blood from his hands each night.”
“…Oh, please. You have no idea what is going to happen between now and the elections,…”
Yeah, coz Mubarak and his thugs are such a friendly and forgiving lot!
“…and you have no idea what Obama’s position on any events might be. Egyptians have driven this whole revolution, not the US, and it is up to Egyptians to see to it that inter-party violence doesn’t break out during any transition period…”
There’s a little matter of US $2 billion in aid m’friend… alot of leverage there that could be used “behind the scenes” that could make the “transition” a whole lot easier and “peaceful”.
“May Obama have the time to scrub the blood from his hands each night.”
Oh, please. You have no idea what is going to happen between now and the elections, and you have no idea what Obama’s position on any events might be. Egyptians have driven this whole revolution, not the US, and it is up to Egyptians to see to it that inter-party violence doesn’t break out during any transition period.
Yes, Don, but what if he’d said the right words too early?
Let’s imagine – as a thought experiment – an overenthusiastic Obama, democratically
sympathizing with the Arab Street, immediately demanding that Mubarak should step
down. And let’s say that some opposition group in Syria or Yemen interpreted this as an
encouraging signal to revolt against their leader?
And let’s say that Assad fils, like Assad p
“What part of US policy in the Arab world, aside from the war in Iraq, was ever shaped by the neocons? The neocons were the ones for pushing for human rights, not cozying up to dictators.”
Sorry if I offended neocon orthodoxy. I did not mean to defend any policy makers of the past couple of decades. But holding up neocons as proponents of human rights, while ignoring the ‘collateral damage’ of that narrow talking point, of which the Iraq war is only part, really does stretch credulity as a convincing argument.
. . . but you see, instead, to reprise what I posted way upthread, we have to bear with fools like Huckabee, who is considered a serious contender for the presidential nomination. Thinks ethnic cleansing of Palestinians is the ticket::
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/02/expulsion.php (click through for the full effect)
So, Paul, sometimes we Americans are more to be pitied than scorned, to make a poor literary reference. Dealing with these idiots we call politicians ain’t easy.
“To clarify, Paul, my wish to seize a potentially transformational moment is not directed at intervention in Egypt one way of the other so much as the wish that the US would shift it’s total approach to dealing with the Arab world that has been guided by the dark hand of the neocons. ”
What part of US policy in the Arab world, aside from the war in Iraq, was ever shaped by the neocons? The neocons were the ones for pushing for human rights, not cozying up to dictators.
To clarify, Paul, my wish to seize a potentially transformational moment is not directed at intervention in Egypt one way of the other so much as the wish that the US would shift it’s total approach to dealing with the Arab world that has been guided by the dark hand of the neocons.
Q: “”WASHINGTON
“Anyway, the romantic in me wishes the US could seize this
potentially transformational moment in the ME to repair much
of the damage it has contributed to.”
I fully understand that, Don. But he should not overreact in an
attempt to repair the unrepairable.
I think I agree with the position of non-hater above:
“The way I see it, either backing Mubarak strongly or running
away rapidly – in public – both have pretty clear negative
repercussions. So far, the Obama administration has avoided
both. Privately, they should be pushing Mubarak to go.”
But things are changing rapidly in Egypt, and my position at
2.15 may not be valid at 3.15.
“WASHINGTON
Looks like Mubarak may make a speech promising that he will
not run again —–in September…
“Leader of the free world”. Paul, I did put it in quotes. It’s been a pretty much meaningless cliche, if not poor joke, for a long time. Although, the US still carries a very big stick so if ‘leader’ means power, we got it. If it means moral authority, not so much. But you would be surprised at the number of Americans who believe it, and wouldn’t find the least degree of irony in the phrase. It’s like copyrighted.
Anyway, the romantic in me wishes the US could seize this potentially transformational moment in the ME to repair much of the damage it has contributed to. Sincerely, I wish Israel could do the same. Challenge/opportunity. But we seem to lack creativity for peace, though we’ve got it, or at least ‘activity’ in spades for ‘defense’/aggression.
Windows of opportunity are just that, open for only a time. Taking risks for understanding, accommodation, peace. That should be on the table but, alas, in the world of power diplomacy, I’d be considered naive.
HuffPo has a headline “Mubarak to speak” but no accompanying story thus far.
Who knows…. HuffPo and all.
Those of you who want Obama to be definitive should realize that if Obama is definitively FOR something, a portion of the protesters may well be definitively AGAINST that thing.
Far better for us to keep our noses out.
And for those who note that the US is a fair weather friend to dictators (a Turkish official made some comment to that effect), well, yeah.
We like stability in any form we can get it. When it seems unstable we dump it. And then we pick a new kind of stability. Saddam Hussein was our client for a while, Mubarak was our client…. We’ve had plenty, and we’ll likely have more.
Reminds me of that famous quote in “A Bug’s Life [1998]” — a very educational film.
“[Hopper has just drowned three dissenting grasshoppers in a pile of seeds]
Hopper: You let one ant stand up to us, then they all might stand up! Those puny little ants outnumber us a hundred to one and if they ever figure that out there goes our way of life! It’s not about food, it’s about keeping those ants in line…”
Newsflash! — The “ants” have figured it out, now will the elites? It’s over for Mubarak, Ackerman (I hope) realizes that the pressure that’s been building all these years on the Arab street has finally burst — there’s no going back. Israel and the US have been complicit in the squashing of freedom of speech, the right to demonstrate political dissent. The Egyptians know who the culprits are — the World knows it. You would think that Israel would at least have some humility at this point? Ha!
Reap what you sow — and all that.
Obama as the “leader of the free world”?
I assume was said with a large dose of irony, but to the extent it was seriously meant, that’s a
phrase no observant Egyptian will believe. President Obama represents the United States of America,
and except for the recent disastrous neocon adventure, every taxi driver in every city in the Middle
East knows that the US has been busy implementing Realpolitik in that region – Obama included.
Democracy has been ignored in the entire Muslim world due to what the White House has
interpreted as national interest: this is the region where every single president cultivated their inner
Nixon.
I think Obama’s fate in the Middle East is more or less to play the role Gorbachev played in Eastern
Europe. Obama’s Cairo speech came four years after Condoleeza Rice’s speech in the same city,
where she said:
“The US pursuit of stability in the Middle East at the expense of democracy had achieved neither.
Now, we are taking a different course. We are supporting the democratic aspirations of all people.”
Combine those two speeches, and you have the perestroika/glasnost moment in US Middle East
policy. None of them seriously allowed actions to follow words however, because both of these
bright, young and extremely ambitious leaders were obsessed with “solving” the Israel-Palestine
conflict – the gordian knot in global affairs.
The Arabs have a remarkably good memory, and all this means that neither the US nor Europe will
*ever* be perceived as being on the “right side” in the Middle East; what is left for the US
administration and the EU countries is to try to do the right thing. And the tasks at hand carries
enormous risks, just like they did for Gorbachev: dealing with the fall of the dictators of the Middle
East in a responsible way. If what we are witnessing is a serial clash between several autocrats and
their populations within a short timespan, this could become much more messy then the almost
miraculously peaceful outcome of the fall of the Berlin wall.
If you guys are dreaming of being on the right side of this particular historical drama, then you’re
still clinging to illusions. It’s too late, and you know this better than I do.
An non-reaction is a reaction, of course, and it’s the one I see as most likely. That’s the situation where the US could be a catalyst. It’s important that a constructive voice fill any silences. Remember who piped up in the pause after the 2000 I/P “peace” talks collapsed? Sharon.
The way I see it, either backing Mubarak strongly or running away rapidly – in public – both have pretty clear negative repercussions. So far, the Obama administration has avoided both. Privately, they should be pushing Mubarak to go. But US policy in the Middle East has been stupid for years, so it’s quite possible that no pressure is being applied at all.
6:57pm Al Jazeera’s Ayman Mohyeldin reporting live from Cairo:
“When the US begings to distance itself from Hosni Mubarak, then Mubarak and his government definitely have something to worry about.”
Washington must be reeling…i wonder if they are putting dunce caps on the neocons and making them sit in the corner…or do they still have credibility.
call in the jesters!!!
“But I think the administration needs to wait to see Mubarak’s public reaction to today’s massive demonstration.”
There might not be one. Mubarak’s strategy is probably just to wait, and hold, and shut up and hope that the protesters eventually get too bored, tired and hungry, and their movement falls apart. But by holding on indefinitely he’s going to plunge the country into chaos, food riots, civil conflict and social unraveling.
The US is hardly the catalyst. Egyptians are clearly the catalysts, and the US has been the passive observers of the work of a million people. But the US and other powers can help give him the last shove.
I wrote to Steve. He is fine. He said he is trying
to find time to post soon but has “been in constant
scramble on media meetings related to Egypt”.
Zafar Khan
http://mediagusher.com/
If Clemons has been drafted, I could see how he might be a wee bit busy.
On Egypt, I agree that it’s getting close to the point that Obama step up. But I think the administration needs to wait to see Mubarak’s public reaction to today’s massive demonstration. I don’t think the US should try to be the catalyst unless it has to be. (Is the Obama administration willing to risk intervening in that way? Dunno.)
” Steve . . . is either too busy with the work that entails or has been requested to avoid commenting on his blog about what is going on.”
Or both.
Helena Cobban, among others, has noted the decimation of career Arabists at State, we know why. I imagine Steve’s ability to network may be a useful commodity. Like I said in a previous post, he works at the intersection of several worlds. He’s a very open guy, but we may not know the half.
“Two days, 259 comments, and nothing new from Clemons”
I imagine Steve is somewhat in demand right now, as the media reaches into the tanks that are filled to the brims with our infamous foreign policy “thinkers”.
Eenie meenie, miney moe, they chant, as they carefully reach into their tanks of choice, looking for the thinkers who have thunk the thoughts most aligned with the thoughts they’d like us to think.
They seem to be hard pressed to find any thinkers that thought their way into predicting this epic wave of change sweeping the Muslim world. But prediction doesn’t seem to be the primary content of these over-filled Washington tanks. Spin provides the bulk of whats filling these tanks, and they are currently overflowing with it.
Whats amusing is the intellectual, political, and ideological chaos shaping the narrative as the various political factions scramble for spin. These clowns in DC aren’t very good at adlib, and sans a script, its seems the narrative becomes little more than meaningless drool. It will be interesting to watch, in these upcoming weeks, what kind of jelly they make out of their drool. Something tells me that no matter what this jelly LOOKS like, one will still be able to close one’s eyes and detect the unmistakable odor of pure Grade A Washington Horseshit.
And, in the FWIW vein, if there had been the merest whiff of “anti Israel” or “anti Jew” elements (not individuals) to the Egyptian uprising, we could count on the Firsters here to flog it. But they haven’t, yet . . .
——————
I am also feeling it’s time for Obama, as the “leader of the free world”, to step up . . .
” … Obama must stop waffling and get the US on the right side of this mess …”
And I’m not talking about what is going on privately at the White House. They may very well have already decided Mubarak is out. What I mean is that they need to say something stronger publicly in support of the Egyptian people and Egyptian aspirations for democracy.
Capital flight and other economic problems.
Who can wait out whom?
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/world/middleeast/01economy.html?_r=1&hp
http://bit.ly/AnotherPricelessOpportunityLost for
the sake of Israel.
Steve was involved in some White House meetings yesterday, apparently as part of an ad hoc crisis advisory group. I’m guessing that he has been unofficially “drafted” to help deal with this crisis, and is either too busy with the work that entails or has been requested to avoid commenting on his blog about what is going on.
All I know is that the longer this goes crisis on without a change of government in Egypt, the more radicalized and frustrated the protesters will become; and the greater the chance of massive and prolonged civil disorder or civil war, military government, global economic destabilization or any one of the other dangerous outcomes of large revolutions that misfire. And an Egypt in a prolonged state of turmoil isn’t good for anyone.
The international dithering is starting to become dangerous. Global leaders need to pull whatever strings they have to get Mubarak out of there quickly, and help the Egyptian people set in motion a credible process leading to the rapid election of a provisional government and constitutional reform. Outside countries and agencies can assist with economic stabilization.
Israel openly called for the support of Mubarak. If this revolution now unravels into a regime crackdown like Tiananmen, it’s going to be very, very bad for the US, since our fingerprints and the Israelis’ fingerprints will be seen as all over the suppression.
The die has been cast. It made sense for Obama to avoid being seen as meddling in the Egyptians’ own affairs. But Obama must stop waffling and get the US on the right side of this mess before he leads us into another decade of Middle East war and anti-US hostility.
Two days, 259 comments, and nothing new from Clemons?
Reasonable caution instead of pure panic:
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=206188
And some Israeli panic, as to be expected:
http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=206113
Does Israel have any creative forward looking up and coming pols?
It’s really spreading!
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=206223
Fayyad is calling for WB elections.
You know, if elections become, I don’t know, fashionable, for a while, this could really be good.
Or not?
Elections don’t solve financial problems. Look at the US. We can’t pry a penny from our oligarchs no matter whom we elect.
But we have the satisfaction of electing a Congress that attempts to redefine rape, a state legislature that is looking into mandating gun ownership, and the like. Elections!
****
And from the same article, here is something about the Gaza activists who were stopped:
“Gaza activist Asma al-Ghoul said she and a small group of demonstrators had gathered Tuesday in central Gaza City when police came to stop them. She says police detained and roughed up some demonstrators.
“Everyone should enjoy the right of freedom expression,” she said, adding that female police harassed her for not covering her hair and accused her of being a bad Muslim.
New York-based Human Rights watch called on Hamas to “stop arbitrarily interfering with peaceful demonstrations about Egypt or anything else.”
Hamas police had no comment.”
So is Asma al-Ghoul an Israeli operative?
Aljazeera update:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/20112113115442982.html
Interesting, “On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund said it was ready to put in a place an economic rebuilding policy for the country.”
“The IMF is ready to help in defining the kind of economic policy that could be put in place,” IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
——————————
On Israel: I understand their nervousness, but the arrogant call for Western nations to ‘shape up’ is a bit much. You’d think it was their billions that has been poured into Egypt. Most US politicians appear to be somewhat reserved so far, supporting Obama’s theme of “stability” and right of democracy for Egyptian people. Apparently they recognize, like most reasonable individuals, that to speak in support of the Mubarak regime is untenable. They already know that Obama will cover the Israeli flank with the call/demand to recognize ongoing commitments of treaty, though some have specifically mentioned this. And that, perhaps among other conditions, will be the minimum price for continued US dollars to flow to Egypt, I would guess.
And Sudan (or: Northern Sudan):
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2011/
01/now-sudan.html
If there was any doubt as to Huckabee’s unsuitability for national public office, that doubt has certainly been removed.
Why, at this time, when the Muslim community is in such upheaval, would Huckabee travel to Israel to celebrate settlement expansion, and state that Jews have the God given right to build and live ANYWHERE in Israel?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/01/new-jordan-government-king-abdullah-ii_n_816755.html
There goes Jordan.
Wow.
I hope people get better than the thugs they’ve had.
Confirming what the observant among us already knew, the former Director of the CIA
From Egypt’s constitution:
Article 82
If on account of any temporary obstacle the President of the Republic is unable to carry out his functions, he shall delegate his powers to a vice-president.
Article 83
In case of resignation, the President shall address the letter of resignation to the People’s Assembly.
Article 84
In case of the vacancy of the Presidential Office or the permanent disability of the President of the Republic, the President of the People’s Assembly shall temporarily assume the Presidency; and, if at that time, the People’s Assembly is dissolved, the President of the Supreme Constitutional Court shall take over the Presidency, however, on condition that neither one shall nominate himself for the Presidency. The People’s Assembly shall then proclaim the vacancy of the office of President. The President of the Republic shall be chosen within a maximum period of sixty days from the day of the vacancy
of the Presidential Office.
Phil Weiss is being prophetic here methinks.
This question will soon divide American Jewry: are you a Zionist?
by PHILIP WEISS on FEBRUARY 1, 2011
How about the Chalmers Johnson moment….Blowback.
is this the Mother of all Blowbacks.
this is absolutely precious.
And here is an informed and interesting interpretation of
the strategy of the other side:
“Five Things You Need to Know about the Egyptian Armed
Forces
Posted on Monday, January 31, 2011
by Steven Cook
There has been a lot of talk about the Egyptian military the
last few days. In light of this commentary, I thought it
would be a good idea to offer the top 5 things people
should know about the armed forces:
1. The senior officers are the direct descendants of Gamal
Abdel Nasser and the Free Officers who built the Egyptian
regime. The military has been a primary beneficiary of
this political order and have not had to intervene overtly in
politics until now because the system worked relatively
well under a brother officer. The armed forces, especially
the commanders, are deeply enmeshed in the Egyptian
economy.
2. It is a tremendous relief that the military has declared
that it will not fire on protestors, but also not unexpected.
The Egyptian military is not the Syrian armed forces, which
was willing to kill many thousands to save Hafiz al Assad
in 1982. The officers have long regarded keeping Egypt
Ok, at Al Jazeera, I’m hearing that the people
demonstrating in Cairo and elsewhere will not leave the
scene before Mubarak leaves the scene.
They don’t want El Baradei to “hijack” their revolution.
Apparently they don’t want this to be diminished to a petty
coalition between several well known and unknown
political movements and parties – risking fights between
these factions, compromises, petty fights etc.
They want to mobilize the Egyptian people against
Mubarak.
By not electing a leader, they can move on as a multitude,
as the people, even claiming that the army is part of that
broad and vaguely defined movement.
But now, they say, according to Al Jazeera, that they are
willing to talk to Vice President Omar Soleyman.
Who exactly wants to talk to VP Soleyman?
Someone in the crowd? Those organizing the
demonstration? Someone with a hidden agenda?
This is the big question right now: some unelected people
within the opposition have agreed to talk with the VP, and
no one knows who they are. They will have to define the
issues, interpret the situation, and make demands. On
behalf of…?
The anarchic structure of this movement – the lack of a
leader – has been their strength until today, making them
able to mobilize huge crowds from all walks of life. But no
one knows who claims to represent “the people”, and who
have accepted to start talks with the Vice president.
This could open the door for some nasty surprises. Or
pleasant surprises.
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see…
I didn’t know that Obama and Clinton bring Zafar Khan in on their communications. Good to know.
“….but ultimately, the United States privately
conveyed to Mubarak and to Suleiman that it didn’t
want to see the process succeed”.. any guesses who
conveyed this idea to the United States? Perhaps
some little guy sitting in Tel Aviv.
http://silentconscience.org
FDL calls Richard Cohen for the concern troll that he is:
http://firedoglake.com/2011/02/01/now-his-concern-trolling-belongs-to-the-world/
And unhelpful remarks by the Israeli leaders who tell us what they really think; Obama can’t seem to catch a break. But then, the Israelis have treated Obama like a pincushion all along.
http://news.antiwar.com/2011/01/31/israeli-president-others-slam-obama-for-betrayal-of-mubarak/
Bill, i’d read the Devil himself if he was bringing me truth, even if
only sporadically…i wouldn’t disqualify him just because of his
name/fame.
so here is an analysis that compares todays arabist/ middle
east domination strategy-israel problem, with the cold war
strategy in east asia.
by:Gareth Porter.
“A historical parallel to the present strategy in the Middle East
is the Cold War strategy in East Asia, including the policy of
surrounding, isolating, and pressuring the Communist
Chinese regime. As documented in my own history of the U.S.
path to war in Vietnam, Perils of Dominance, the national
security bureaucracy was so committed to that strategy that it
resisted any alternative to war in South Vietnam in 1964-65,
because it believed the loss of South Vietnam would mean the
end of Cold War strategy, with its military alliances, client
regimes, and network of military bases surrounding China. It
was only during the Nixon administration that the White
House wrested control of national security policy from the
bureaucracy sufficiently to scrap that Cold War strategy in East
Asia and reach an historic accommodation with China.
The present strategic crisis can only be resolved by a similar
political decision to reach another historical accommodation
As I’ve said before, Nadine:
I’m not willing to discuss politics with someone so sure of
the future amidst a chaotic historic drama; so sure of the
motives of their enemies (apparently without ever being
there), so defensive; and so willing to accuse almost every
poster here of being anti-Semites or being in bed with the
Jew-haters.
So please ignore me.
“First, can you accept the idea that not EVERYTHING that
happens in the middle east involves Israel or aipac.”
Of course. So why don’t we concentrate on the drama
unfolding right now – in Egypt!
Pat Buchanan is also the guy who just had a book come out where the central premise was that churchill was the real evil in WW2 and hitler was just an innocent victim
“But the sad fact is that
paranoia is evenly spread among those who claim that the
Jews rule the world, and those who claim that the world
persecutes the Jews. You guys should resist pushing the
panic button every time someone criticizes the policies
and actions of Israel. ” (Paul Norheim)
What’s the opposite of paranoia, Paul? What do you call the mental syndrome that remains complacent regardless of threatening events? The state of mind that sees a violent thug running towards you with rage in his eye and a gun in his hand and says, “Oh nonsense, he doesn’t mean anything by it”? or “well, he does seem a little annoyed, but offer him this box of chocolates and he’ll be happy”?
Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood do not criticize the “policies and actions” of Israel. They criticize the existence of Israel, which they intend to end on direct orders from Allah. They would not be pacified by a nice peace treaty dividing Palestine into Jewish and Arab states; on the contrary, they would be mad as hell and would add the name of the traitors who signed the deal to their hit list.
And they are getting stronger.
this one comes from someone who will surely be a favorite
here among some here at the Wnote.
from Pat Buchanan.
“No, the United States is not hated across the region because
of the freedoms we enjoy or even because of the lectures on
democracy we do not cease to deliver. We are hated because
we are perceived as hypocrites who say one thing and do
another.
The Arabs say we support despots who deny them the rights
we cherish. They say we preach endlessly of human rights but
imposed savage sanctions on Iraq for a dozen years before
2003 that brought premature death to half a million children.
They say we use our power to invade countries that never
attacked us.
They say we have provided Israel with the weapons to crush
the Palestinians and steal their land, and that we practice a
moral double standard. We condemn attacks on Israelis, but
sit silent as Israel bombs Lebanon for five weeks and conducts
a war on Gaza, killing 1,400 and wounding thousands, most
of them civilians.
Any truth to all this? Or is this just Arab propaganda?
After losing Turkey as an ally, Israel has just seen Hezbollah
come to power in Beirut and the Palestinian Authority stripped
of its credibility by the WikiLeaks exposure of its groveling to
America and Israel. Now Israel faces the near certainty of a
more hostile Egypt.
As for America, if we are about to be thrown out of the Middle
East, it would be neither undeserved nor an unmitigated
disaster.
After all, it
Ok, I’ll let that one go for the moment. Let me bounce two things off of you. First, can you accept the idea that not EVERYTHING that happens in the middle east involves Israel or aipac. And that Israel, ( I don’t know if you’ve ever been there ) cannot have an armed hostile entity on the golan heights or the west bank ridge line.
“It annoys me when pro-Israel neocons blame Obama for
the crisis in Egypt – not just because everybody knows
that this event was 30 years in the making, but also
because these people would certainly have accused him of
putting the Israeli-Egyptian relation at risk if actions had
followed words after his Cairo speech. It’s nothing but a
petty partisan blame game, just like blaming him for the
economic crisis.” (Paul Norheim)
Unfair. When Obama sort of continued Bush’s policies in Afghanistan, conservatives & neocons supported him because they supported the policy. What they criticized viz-a-viz Egypt was dumping the Bush policies of pushing more open elections and relying on flattery instead, which failed utterly. So it’s not just a partisan blame game, it’s a policy difference.
George Friedman’s point about the total unpreparedness of the Obama WH for what was in some form a predictable succession crisis is, I think, well taken. They didn’t know what to say, they didn’t know how to say it, and they delivered a lot of mixed messages that left no one feeling reassured – unless you want to count Ahmedinejad, Assad, and their allies.
Pearlman,
In the past, I’ve often ridiculed the paranoid idea that “the
Jews rule the world”, when commenters here have
suggested something in that vein. But the sad fact is that
paranoia is evenly spread among those who claim that the
Jews rule the world, and those who claim that the world
persecutes the Jews. You guys should resist pushing the
panic button every time someone criticizes the policies
and actions of Israel.
There is much to be said for the old definition of anti-
Semitism: being against the Jews in various ways. The new
definition – objecting to policies or actions of the Israeli
government – is a hoax that may work for a decade or
two, and then backfire, because no government can be
above criticism. And Israel has no right to monopolize and
redefine the concept of “anti-Semitism” in this manner, as
it excludes the millions of Jews living outside Israel.
You may feel that the criticism against Israel is often
unfair, but you should not automatically conflate it with
anti-Semitism. I personally have never questioned Israel’s
right to exist, and I wish you good luck building your
nation. But I frequently criticize what I regard as
aggressive actions and policies of the young state of
Israel.
And according to the new, fraudulent definition of anti-
Semitism, I am an anti-Semite – there is no doubt about
that.
This is of course annoying on a personal level. On a
general level, the effects are much more serious, because
it poisons the political climate. In the long run, I know that
the new definition and the paranoid labeling of critics will
damage Israel more than me. This fact gives me no
pleasure. I will, however, always feel disgust when I read
anti-Jewish statements; and before you were around here,
I often screamed loudly when I saw it (mostly to no effect).
Fellow commenters here, like Questions and Sweetness,
can confirm this – there were endless fights on this issue
two or three years ago.
You may label me an anti-Semite, or label me an Old-
School-Anti-Anti-Semite who should wish that the
discussions on Israel and its surroundings were more
generous and complex, and less poisonous.
I’m interested in the Steve Clemons reference to Krushchev. Did he mean that Israel is threatening the USA with nuclear war. With economic destruction. Did he mean that Israel is seeking to BURY the United States. Are there Israeli missiles in Cuba. Whats the reasoning.
Paul, you seem like a reasonable guy. ( and you sign your name, which means your not a coward ) So I’m going to try it again. We, the Jews, do not rule the world, we really don’t. If we did, would a guy like Steve Clemons be running around? Would Obama be president? Come on, nobody is blaming Obama for losing Egypt. I just don’t think he is up to the challenges. the middle east is a hard place and Obama is weak. Thats all
Paul, you seem like a reasonable guy. ( and you sign your name, which means your not a coward ) So I’m going to try it again. We, the Jews, do not rule the world, we really don’t. If we did, would a guy like Steve Clemons be running around? Would Obama be president? Come on, nobody is blaming Obama for losing Egypt. I just don’t think he is up to the challenges. the middle east is a hard place and Obama is weak. Thats all
“Do they publish a magazine?”
They have an official website, and you can read an interview with the editor here:
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2011/01/31/interview-brotherhood
When asked what represented the greatest challenge for a
statesman, conservative British PM Harold Macmillan
famously replied: “Events, my dear boy, events.”
Joe Biden predicted that the new president would be
tested. But who would have imagined that an awakening of
the Arab street demanding democracy would become the
biggest challenge for an American President? This certainly
contains a larger irony than the challenge from Netanyahu,
whom Steve Clemons often has called “Obama’s
Khrushchev”.
It annoys me when pro-Israel neocons blame Obama for
the crisis in Egypt – not just because everybody knows
that this event was 30 years in the making, but also
because these people would certainly have accused him of
putting the Israeli-Egyptian relation at risk if actions had
followed words after his Cairo speech. It’s nothing but a
petty partisan blame game, just like blaming him for the
economic crisis.
I didn’t realize that there were so many experts here on the inner workings of the muslim brotherhood. Do they publish a magazine. Where can I get it. If soembody tells me that I’ll give them the phone number in Jerusalem that we all get on our bar mitzvah. The one where we get orders from in order to control the world.
One thing Kristof fails to note is that Mubarak ran much freer elections back in 2005, when Bush was putting pressure on him. Last year’s parliamentary elections were by every account the least free in decades, with nary a peep from the Obama administration.
That’s one of the engines of the current crisis, people’s realization that Mubarak was determined to keep stealing the elections.
So the people were disgusted on one hand, and the army was disgusted on the other – they didn’t want Gamal (Jimmy) Mubarak foisted on them. IOW, this crisis has been building for several years, and it was obvious it would come to head fairly soon. If few people anticipated these particular protests, it was still clear that Mubarak was likely to die in the near future.
George Friedman of Stratfor is making this point: If we had a competent WH, somebody would have been giving Mubarak the nudge quietly last year to hold more open elections and pick a successor other than Jimmy. But we don’t have a competent WH. This WH waited for the crisis to hit, then was caught so flat-footed they are calling in all and sundry for advice, which is like waving a “WE ARE CLUELESS” flag.
While Clinton, the outfront administration person, doing the noncommital shuffle, equivocates and makes excuses for the dictator Mubarak http://blogs.state.gov/index.php/site/entry/clinton_interviews_egypt , Kristof, in Cairo, sees through American eyes, how he feels America should be acting:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/opinion/01kristof.html?hp
John Pudhoretz (papa of John-four pizzas-Pudhoretz )…lol, is
trying to persuade amurikans that there is no linkage at all.
“If there were a Palestinian embassy in Washington today, would
Hosni Mubarak have been any more mindful of the eventual
consequences of his iron-fisted fecklessness in refusing a
transition to a more representative Egypt because there was an
ambassador from Palestine in Washington?”
While Podhoretz considers this to be a rhetorical question, a
slightly nuanced reading of the situation would respond
affirmatively to that question.
Perhaps Podhoretz should answer this question: Could Hosni
Mubarak
Another newsflash for Nadine–MB is a bit player in the protests, contrary to the propaganda efforts of the AIPAC/neoconmen. Turns out that there is a gigantic generation gap, and the MB leadership is on the wrong side of it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013003308.html
Once again Nadine declaims with absolute certainty that the sky is falling…only to find out that her forecasts are dead wrong. But as a paid hasbarista, that won’t dissuade here in the least.
“Everything that is wrong in the middle east IS America’s fault.”
And everything that is wrong in America is Norway’s fault.
Newsflash for nadine,
Everything that is wrong in the middle east IS America’s fault.
Accept it.
Anything that is bad for the American Empire is good for the American taxpayer.
Accept it.
Suleiman deserves the rejection of the Egyptians.
“Katherine Hawkins, an expert on the US’s rendition to torture
program, in an email, has sent some critical texts where
Suleiman pops up. Thus, Jane Mayer, in The Dark Side,
pointed to Suleiman’s role in the rendition program:
Each rendition was authorized at the very top levels of both
governments….The long-serving chief of the Egyptian central
intelligence agency, Omar Suleiman, negotiated directly with
top Agency officials. [Former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt]
Walker described the Egyptian counterpart, Suleiman, as “very
bright, very realistic,” adding that he was cognizant that there
was a downside to “some of the negative things that the
Egyptians engaged in, of torture and so on. But he was not
squeamish, by the way” (pp. 113).
Stephen Grey, in Ghost Plane, his investigative work on the
rendition program also points to Suleiman as central in the
rendition program:
To negotiate these assurances [that the Egyptians wouldn't
"torture" the prisoner delivered for torture] the CIA dealt
principally in Egypt through Omar Suleiman, the chief of the
Egyptian general intelligence service (EGIS) since 1993. It was
he who arranged the meetings with the Egyptian interior
ministry…. Suleiman, who understood English well, was an
urbane and sophisticated man. Others told me that for years
Suleiman was America’s chief interlocutor with the Egyptian
regime — the main channel to President Hosni Mubarak
himself, even on matters far removed from intelligence and
security.
Suleiman’s role, was also highlighted in a Wikileaks cable:
In the context of the close and sustained cooperation between
the USG and GOE on counterterrorism, Post believes that the
written GOE assurances regarding the return of three
Egyptians detained at Guantanamo (reftel) represent the firm
commitment of the GOE to adhere to the requested principles.
These assurances were passed directly from Egyptian General
Intelligence Service (EGIS) Chief Soliman through liaison
channels — the most effective communication path on this
issue. General Soliman’s word is the GOE’s guarantee, and the
GOE’s track record of cooperation on CT issues lends further
support to this assessment. End summary.
However, Suleiman wasn’t just the go-to bureaucrat for when
the Americans wanted to arrange a little torture. This “urbane
and sophisticated man” apparently enjoyed a little rough stuff
himself.
Shortly after 9/11, Australian citizen Mamdouh Habib was
captured by Pakistani security forces and, under US pressure,
torture by Pakistanis. He was then rendered (with an Australian
diplomats watching) by CIA operatives to Egypt, a not
uncommon practice. In Egypt, Habib merited Suleiman’s
personal attention. As related by Richard Neville, based on
Habib’s memoir:
Habib was interrogated by the country
Mr Clemons,
When you have the time, I’d love to see you post a response to the arguments raised in these 2 commentaries. Keep up the great work!
Fear the Muslim Brotherhood
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/258419/fear-muslim-brotherhood-andrew-c-mccarthy
Beware Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-29/beware-egypts-muslim-brotherhood
Some of the most riveting reporting I have yet heard. I highly recommend to listen to this man’s telephone interview from the streets of Cairo, followed by economic analysis by Samer Shehata:
http://www.democracynow.org/2011/1/31/sharif_abdel_kouddous_live_from_egypt
Posted by crying humanity, Jan 31 2011, 7:14PM – Link
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ackerman is a pig, but even a pig finds a root now and then….it must have penetrated Ackerman’s porkie snout that if the popular revolt doesn’t prevail soon and runs out of steam– the MB will still be there to the end now that they are committed –and emerge as heroes with some credit.
Will wonders never cease….neocon Pletka does a baddie,…calling for aid to Israel to end.
Time to Shut the Spigot on Egypt
By Danielle Pletka
January 31, 2011, 9:49 am
Like the Obama administration, members of Congress are still refining their positions on Egypt. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry recommended that Hosni Mubarak
TPM alerts us that Re. Gary Akerman, staunch Israel supporter, incoming committee co-chair, recognizes tha Mubarak must go, the sooner the better.
http://ackerman.house.gov/index.cfm?sectionid=254&parentid=4§iontree=4,254&itemid=1539
“Spoof on US State Departments Position on Egypt ”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBuMuzhvYeA&feature=player_embedded
And Cee, you have no idea at all that those women were Israelis,
Re: Egypt. You are correct that they aren’t Israeli. Perhaps they were provacateurs? Forced?
I was just pointing out what happens in Palestine and why Hamas wouldn’t want any public protests.
Not to worry, Nadine. Mubarak’s time is almost up.If the Egyptian street doesn’t do him in, God will. Puis, apres, Mubarak le deluge.
Sooner or later the US and Israel will have to deal with the absence of Mubarak–unless, of course, the US can tell God what to do? Or maybe the US’ bosses in Tel Aviv would be more suited to the task.
Look how Carroll is maneuvering to make whatever happens next in Egypt all the US’s fault: if the US fails to push Mubarak out the door, then they didn’t support the people, but if they do push Mubarak out the door, the MB takeover will also be a natural reaction to US interference in supporting Mubarak so long, and any blood that results will be on the US’ hands. Heads I win, tails you lose. No country can tell any other country what to do, unless Carroll needs to prepare a scapegoat.
*************************
The important thing to remember from the point of view of US interests, which an American President is SUPPOSED to care about, is that Mubarak, unlovely as he is, has been a staunch US ally, and the US does NOT want to send the message that enemies of the US get the kid glove treatment while allies of the US get the rubber hose treatment.
Which unfortunately is exactly the message Obama is sending by pushing Mubarak harder than he ever pushed Ahmedinejad when the masses poured into the streets of Tehran after Ahmedinejad stole the 2009 election.
Who, under these circumstances, will ever be dumb enough to become an American ally again? That is the question all our current (but maybe not future) allies are asking themselves right now.
The other day I heard Michael Ledeen quote an unnamed Turkish general who told him, “The problem with being an ally of the United States is that every so often you turn around and stab yourselves in the back.”
I must say the US has the most irresponsible media of any in the democratic world, bar none.
I have been watching Fox just to see what they are presenting and it has been non stop propaganda and Islamist hate and fear mongering.
So far I have recorded three direct lies…plain outright lies about statements made by Egyptians…in one case they were lying about a public statement that I was at that very moment watching the video of on Al Jeezar..it’s unbelievable.
Since free speech is free speech we can’t stop it but one thing we should work for in this country is someone(s) to create a actual unbaised unpolitical news network cause this shit that passes for news now is poisoning the less edeucated public and making them even more ignorant.
Steve was interviewed on AJ.
Posted by Dan Kervick, Jan 31 2011, 2:56PM – Link
Paul, I understand your worries and share them. But my fear is that the wildfire you are warning about will burn and spread more intensely if Mubarak *does not* step down soon>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I agree with Kervick.
The Egypt revolt so far is not as violent as it could have been, the people have behaved well all things considered.
If they are thwarted in their efforts or ignored by the US that will raise the temperature of not only the Egyptians, but others in the region who would like to emulate them.
Then,– you see will some real violence in the next revolts, as the Arab streets figure they tried the non violent way, didn’t get any support and it didn’t work, so their only other choice is violent overthrow and/or assassinations.
The genie is out of the box, the US better go with it and adjust to any changes.
More on the case for maintaining the status quo, Likud style. Playing the islamist card, with help from Mike Huckabee. And one opinion that the Israelis and their cohorts are just trying to get out ahead of the demonization curve.
“This may seem like the right wing is in a pickle, caught between defending freedom and defending dictatorship. But I think they
“But my fear is that the wildfire you are warning about will burn and spread more intensely if Mubarak *does not* step down soon, and turn over authority to a figure the Egyptian people actually trust to manage the transition to a new democratic system.” (Dan Kervick)
From the latest reports, it sounds like the military is appealing to both sides, calling the protests “legitimate” but not telling Mubarak to go. It is the military’s interest to preserve the Free Officers’ Regime post-Mubarak rather than suffer a revolution.
But there is a time limit for this standoff. Cairo will run out of food if business does not resume.
“Constitutional reform” dialogues.
Dialogue not confrontation.
I think this means Mubarak thinks he’s staying?
Paul, your comment is important and thought provoking, and so I wont try to give an off the cuff response, though I tend to agree with Dan Kervick that responding honestly to the painful exigencies of the moment calls out loud.
I would only say, for myself, that bearing with a government, ours, that has propped up dictators for decades in the name of reacting to some global fear — first communism, now islamisism — does not feel good as a citizen. Republican or democrat, conservative or liberal, administration after administration has followed the playbook, the conventional wisdom and, of course, the road to corporate profits. As a Norwegian, you have possibly not felt the sheer weight of such encrusted policy, though you’ve felt others no doubt.
Not evil or bad men and women (though I would except the Cheney’s and the like from that characterization); and not that threats and reasonable response to threats isn’t part of government’s role in this world of nation states. But the weight of uninspired thinking that has predominantly guided our foreign policy establishment — loosely, IMO — cannot do a whole lot more damage to the world, and to our nation than it has already. Bad actors exist; we’ve contributed our share. Sorry, but I don’t have great confidence that the geniuses in Washington can, just this time, calculate the incalculable. Better to be humble.
I left out respect for the losers, oops….. That kinda matters when you get down to it.
They need a phased step down.
Out goes Mubarak, in comes a set-in-stone patterned committee system, each giving way in turn to a next, all taking enough time to ensure that voices are heard, that elections can be held, that data and weapons and loyalty can be handed over.
This is a country without much experience in what it takes to run elections, from electoral law to poll watchers. Think how elaborate the US electoral system is, think how patterned, how many committees and parties and neighborhood organizations there are. Think of the interest groups that make people feel they are a part of the system.
In fact, here’s a tongue-in-cheek reaction — get AIPAC to go organize Egypt! They’re so mystically effective and all….
But seriously, national elections need pyramidal structures underlying them. Egypt needs to creat those cornerstones and however many levels needed to get to a national system with trusted, tested, politically astute and knowledgeable people. They don’t need a cult of personality, one charismatic dude who promises the world and delivers the torture chamber.
So, as each level is created, one more appointed committee disappears willingly. I would guess there are some people around who could do this, who could make sure not to overpromise instant doublings of income, though, geeze, for all the people living on 2 dollars a day (40% of the population, you’d think there could be some easy and not too inflationary help….)
Democracy is a slow, tedious, tiresome, process-oriented mess. The people in the street need to see the process and learn to love it, for it is process not product, opportunity not outcome, respect for the winners even if you can’t fucking stand them and you’re sure they’re Tea Party idiots — it’s this that undergirds anything like a democratic or republican form of government.
The people differ, so only some of them can rule at a time. They have to take turns based on elections.
Here’s hoping there are some process-people huddling and setting up a committee system, and here’s hoping when they do, the street demonstrations don’t blow up because there isn’t suddenly a Change We Can Believe In…..
And Cee, you have no idea at all that those women were Israelis, and that doesn’t explain the official response. No one wants Egypt to blow up. We all want it to sink slowly as a new and nicer system arises.
We should, by the way, have the decency to be careful overcheering other people’s revolutions. We aren’t the ones getting no money from the ATM, no bread from the store, no antibiotics from the pharmacy, perhaps no insulin or surgery or heart attack care. We aren’t the ones bleeding, being beaten, or burned.
This is seriously scary, and sobering and to be contemplated.
Paul, I understand your worries and share them. But my fear is that the wildfire you are warning about will burn and spread more intensely if Mubarak *does not* step down soon, and turn over authority to a figure the Egyptian people actually trust to manage the transition to a new democratic system. Egypt cannot endure this kind of economic disruption and civil disorder for long. The longer Mubarak holds on, the more likely it is that elements of the armed forces and the least democratic factions of the opposition will take matters into their own hands.
From SKY News:
“Egyptian Army: ‘We Will Not Use Force’
Stuart Ramsay in Cairo
The Egyptian army has said it will not use force against
protesters calling for the removal of President Hosni
Mubarak ahead of a “million people” march.
The military said it considers the people’s demands
“legitimate”.
At almost exactly the same time as the announcement was
made, several tanks blocking access to Cairo’s main
square where protests have been held, rolled back some
500 metres.
Everyone looked at each other in disbelief because the
tanks had been stationed there for a few days.
There was the sense they were withdrawing to perhaps
allow for a large number of people to enter the square
uninhibited.
The army have always said they would not fire on
protesters, but now they have made their position very
clear and are saying they will not be involved in violent
confrontation.”
Of course this is not just about the US-Israel-Egypt
alliance, or the so called “peace process”. Even whether the
US will be perceived as supporting the autocrats or the
Arab streets may ultimately become a minor issue,
compared to possible consequences if this process
accelerates to fast in the region.
What may happen in the coming months, is that the
confrontation between protesters and their largely
illegitimate governments spread from country to country:
Jordan, Algeria, Yemen, Sudan, Syria, Morocco, Libya,
Saudi Arabia… This may or may not happen regardless of
what the US does; but the US and other foreign powers
may influence the speed, the pace of these developments.
A simultaneous revolt in many of these countries could
have all sorts of outcomes: success for the protesters in
one country, stalemate in another, Tien an Men events,
coups, civil wars, descend into statelessness, foreign
interference, regular wars — and all kinds of
unpredictable as well as likely consequences – including a
severe global depression.
If the US acts to fast, openly demanding of Mubarak to
step down, this process will certainly accelerate and create
an extremely volatile, dangerous, and uncontrollable
situation. All this talk from world leaders about an “orderly
transition” may sound like ambiguous bullshit, and will not
satisfy the protesters, but it is the right signal to send.
The fall of the Soviet Union and the revolutions in Eastern
Europe occurred in a surprisingly peaceful manner. We
should not expect that the events in the Middle East will
unfold in a similar way.
Meanwhile, Huckabee, in Israel, doesn’t miss a beat in his quest for the nomination, running on the Likud platform:
http://firedoglake.com/2011/01/31/in-israel-mike-huckabee-criticizes-egyptian-uprising-us-government/
Don,
Read the article submitted by POA. If Kristol thinks that Mr. Suave Torturer is in place they can agree to kicking Mubarak to the curb.
It reminds me of Tom Lantos assuring people in Israel that we would replaced Saddam Hussein with another dictator.
Don,
Read the article submitted by POA. If Kristol thinks that Mr. Suave Torturer is in place they can agree to kicking Mubarak to the curb.
It reminds me of Tom Lantos assuring people in Israel that we would replaced Saddam Hussein with another dictator.
Don,
Read the article submitted by POA. If Kristol thinks that Mr. Suave Torturer is in place they can agree to kicking Mubarak to the curb.
It reminds me of Tom Lantos assuring people in Israel that we would replaced Saddam Hussein with another dictator.
and here is another letter to Sec Clinton from May 2010, more urgent. Signatories the same, except Amb Edward Walker not on, and Brian Katulis on.
http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/node/17776
Abrams was part of the initial “working group” I saw listed, which I later saw a slightly expanded list. That group has been going for quite some time. I tried to trace the group in the last post, but links got mixed up. It’s not even easy to find an official listing, much less and official post of their findings. The group is more broad than the initial listing I saw referenced:
Here’s who signed onto a letter to Clinton last April:
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40535&prog=zgp&proj=zme&zoom_highlight=egypt+working+group
Also, on that link there is a pdf link to a response from Clinton which is not very inspiring.
Questions,
Hamas doesn’t want these folks showing up at any demonstration. Perhaps those women are known.
http://www.labournet.net/world/0504/wall5.html
“I suspect Elliot Abrams understood that he was unlikely to be listened to…”
I suspect he just wants to keep everyone on the White House team at arms length, so he doesn’t get co-opted and can feel free to stab them in the back later.
John Waring,
Thanks for sharing that. I still believe that Mubarak must go now before he can plan to do more damage to this movement to oust him.
Good on Steve for stepping up and helping out. I guess Elliot Abrams was too busy to help his country today.
“You have to think now that some heads are going to roll in our own government over this business. Almost whatever way it goes now, there is going to be a lot of finger pointing over the bungling and confusion.
Usually Steve is all over this kind of thing with the scuttlebutt from his contacts in the Biden camp and the Donilon camp.” (Dan Kervick)
If the Laura Rozen piece is right, the WH hasn’t begun to wrap their head around the consequences. Dim hopes for the peace process? It was a farce before; now it’s dead as a doornail. Israel is facing the prospect of Hamas about to be armed with US-made missiles by Egypt, and terrorist attacks from across the Sinai border. That’s what a Muslim Brotherhood Egyptian government would do. You think the Israelis feel secure enough to negotiate under those circumstances? Not likely.
It’s truly as if the White House never had any strategic thinkers. My impression is that their linkage-based mental model of the Middle East just blew up and they are scrambling to put together a Plan B from scratch.
Kristol link: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/working-group-egypt-calls-suspension-us-aid_537669.html
BTW, the whole “working group” statement in above post, which is short, didn’t go, so here’s a link to a summary:
http://freedomist.com/2011/01/30/egypt-protests-working-group-on-egypt-lists-democracy-demands-for-mubarak-jan25-freedom-news/
This is interesting: a fairly establishment group of individuals says Mubarak must go ( http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0111/Exofficials_urge_Obama_to_suspend_aid_to_Egypt.html?showall ), while official insiders, AKA, Clinton, are not taking this approach.
The official “working group ” statement doesn’t go so far either:
Statement of the Working Group on Egypt, Saturday January 29, 2011
Amidst the turmoil in Egypt, it is important for the U.S. to remain focused on the interests of the Egyptian people as well as the legitimacy and stability of the Egyptian government.
Only free and fair elections provide the prospect for a peaceful transfer of power to a government recognized as legitimate by the Egyptian people. We urge the Obama administration to pursue these fundamental objectives in the coming days and press the Egyptian government to:
– call for free and fair elections for president and for parliament to be held as soon as possible.
– amend the Egyptian Constitution to allow opposition candidates to register to run for the presidency.
– immediately lift the state of emergency, release political prisoners, and allow for freedom of media and assembly
BTW, here’s apparently where Steve is engaged, per Laura Rozen:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/
Even B. Kristol says Mubarak should go, which makes me wonder. I’ll put the link in next post.
O.K. Now it’s time to interfere.
“If” Obama wants to stand by his “human rights and democracy and will of the people” it’s time for him to tell Mubrark the US no longer recognizes him as President of Egypt. Offer him a plane ride out.
If the street gets no help now from the US there is going to be even more resentment among Egyptians to deal with. No matter how the current revolt goes this won’t be the end of it if Mubarak doesn’t go.
We know the spiel from Obama and Hillary for public consumption but we don’t know what they have said to Mubarak in private. I think if they had told him the US no longer recongizes him he would would have left.
And this from the same article….:
“Mahmoud Zahar, a Hamas leader in Gaza known for his often fiery outspokenness, said on Monday,
Here’s more….
“Both Hamas and the Western-backed Palestinian Authority have prevented popular demonstrations in support of protesting Egyptians and Tunisians in recent days, apparently preferring to show a front of Palestinian neutrality and worried that things could spin out of control.
In an early sign that people on both sides were seeking to capitalize on the regional turmoil, Palestinians inspired by how social networking sites helped to mobilize demonstrators in Egypt and Tunisia created two pages on Facebook over the weekend, one urging people to rebel against the Islamic militant rulers of Gaza, and the other against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
By mid-Monday, several thousand fans had registered for the anti-Hamas page, Preparations for Al-Karama (Dignity) Revolution in Gaza, which called for mass protests in Gaza after Friday prayers on Feb. 11. The anti-authority page, Preparations for Revolution against the Zionist-Fatah Authority, called for protests after prayers in the West Bank this Friday, and had attracted a few hundred fans.
Apparently nervous, the Hamas police dispersed a handful of demonstrators who gathered in Gaza city on Monday afternoon to show support for the Egyptian people. The bearded plainclothes officers called in a group of female officers and arrested three young female demonstrators, a human rights advocate and another male demonstrator. The call for that demonstration was also made through Facebook. ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/world/middleeast/01palestinians.html?hp
*****
Now if Hamas doesn’t want a Jasmine Revolution, or whatever, then what do we make of anyone else’s reluctance to go with the flow?
Anyone gonna bash Hamas for quelling a demo and carrying off 3 young female demonstrators?
You have to think now that some heads are going to roll in our own government over this business. Almost whatever way it goes now, there is going to be a lot of finger pointing over the bungling and confusion.
Usually Steve is all over this kind of thing with the scuttlebutt from his contacts in the Biden camp and the Donilon camp.
John Waring, thanks for the link above. It is a sensible point of view. I do speculate that a rapid removal of Mubarak and his replacement cabinet/stooges may be necessary to give enough actuality to the ‘transition’ (if that’s what we are seeing) to indicate to the protesting/opposition forces that movement is happening. Surely these stooges are not need to carry out the actual transition, and it is the army which will be crucial in assessing whether transition will be allowed to go forward.
Here’s a column from Chris Hedges looking at the larger picture:
“The failure of the United States to halt the slow-motion ethnic cleansing of Palestinians by Israel has consequences. The failure to acknowledge the collective humiliation and anger felt by most Arabs because of the presence of U.S. troops on Muslim soil, not only in Iraq and Afghanistan but in the staging bases set up in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, has consequences. The failure to denounce the repression, including the widespread use of torture, censorship and rigged elections, wielded by our allies against their citizens in the Middle East has consequences. We are soaked with the stench of these regimes. Mubarak, who reportedly is suffering from cancer, is seen as our puppet, a man who betrayed his own people and the Palestinians for money and power.”
http://www.truthdig.com/report/page2/what_corruption_and_force_have_wrought_in_egypt_20110130/
… and here is a little word-swap game for the nadine and Pearlman types — change “Arab” to “Jew” and see how it feels!
“INVITED TO THE WHITE HOUSE TODAY, per Laura Rozen: Michele Dunn of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the Brookings Institution’s Robert Kagan. They co-chair a bipartisan working group on Egypt. Also coming are others from their group, including Elliott Abrams, President
Don’t get your hopes up too high — there are still plenty more out there!
“Chayek, who seems proud that he served in the Givati Brigade, an infantry unit that was active in the Gaza Strip during Cast Lead, added: “They’ve attacked us many times before, the Arabs, and we’ve managed to defend ourselves. God protects all the time – God and the army.
“I’m not worried at all. If the people in Egypt want to kill themselves,” he shrugged. “You write in Al Jazeera that Ron Chayek said ‘a good Arab is a dead Arab’.”
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/01/201113165139647644.html
This is really quite comical, in a way. After hearing now, for decades, how fellow Arabs care nothing about their Palestinian brethren, the Israeli’s are now terrified that the “arab street” may have a voice.
These pieces of shit like Nadine and Wiggie will have to read from a new script, soon. The old one has been exposed as bad fiction.
Well, theres always Escobar for a fresh viewpoint……
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB01Ak02.html
Well, it is all looking pretty smooth in Tunisia at present! So what is the issue? The people get a government for them by them etc. Or is that just an American wet dream?
However, whether real or for media PR effect, it looks like the weather is closing in on Israel (at least in their own minds):
<<<<
“[...] Israelis, have been overtaken by fear: The fear of democracy. Not here, in neighbouring countries,” Sever Plocker, an Israeli commentator, writes in the daily Yediot Ahronot.
“Its as though we never prayed for our Arab neighbours to become liberal democracies,” Plocker writes. . . .
If Egypt resumes its conflict with Israel, Israelis fear, it will put a powerful Western-armed military on the side of Israel’s enemies while also weakening pro-Western states like Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Eli Shaked, a former Israeli ambassador to Cairo, offered a grim assessment on Sunday in Yediot Ahronot.
“The assumption at present is that Mubarak’s regime is living on borrowed time, and that a transition government will be formed for the next number of months until new general elections are held,” he wrote.
“If those elections are held in a way that the Americans want, the most likely result will be that the Muslim Brotherhood will win a majority and will be the dominant force in the next government. That is why it is only a question of a brief period of time before Israel’s peace with Egypt pays the price,” Shaked wrote. . . .
<<<<<
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/201113177145613.html
What these characters do not seem to get is this: it is not about ‘has-been’ ideologues buried in 40 y.o. struggles — it is about a youth bulge of highly educated unemployed young people who have the technology and smarts to out govern any non-democratic government.
Ultimately the parliament is not in some building waiting for rituals and protocols — it is on the street in mobile phones and internet services.
At its core this is about inter-generational change, whether the old folk get it or not. Feels like the 60s & 70s coming back — or is it just another cruel acid fashback?
Here’s some robust common sense from AR Norton:
http://bostonuniversity.blogspot.com/2011/01/egypt-sentiments-vs-advice.html
Clinton has stated that she does not support Mubarak’s ouster. She wants to see a smooth transition to reforms. In other words, she is giving Mubarak a wink and a nod to remain in power. All thats left now is the continued demonization of the protest movement and the opposition. Already, the media “tone” has shifted to the looting and the violence, laying the groundwork for a media justification of a Mubarak crack down.
What IP peace process? Things must be getting interesting for this political rat to start showing up on the ME media radar screen again. Looks like his successful fake ‘peace process’ might be under threat.
<<<<<<
The former British prime minister [Tony Blair] did not say explicitly whether Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak must step down. But he said it’s important that Egypt holds proper elections and that any transition take place in an orderly fashion.
“People want to get to a position where the Egyptian people are able to express their will in free and fair elections,” he said. “But I think the watchword is change with care, because at the same time we have to make sure any change occurs with stability and order.”
In particular, he said he was concerned that unrest in Egypt could disrupt the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
“Change is going to happen, but it should be the right type of change and that process of change needs to be managed with order and stability so that you don’t end up in a situation worse than the one we have and destabilizing the region,” Blair said. . . .
<<<<
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/01/31/ap/middleeast/main7301355.shtml
I’m sick of hearing the MB mentioned on the news every few minutes since they won’t tell the entire truth about them.
I don’t think they’ll allow themselves to be used again.
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=western_support_for_islamic_militancy_202700
It’s all positioning….. It’s not about belief at this point, it’s about buying off the best possible deal, getting back at enemies, sabotaging one person’s chances or one group’s chances, dividing and so on.
I wonder who is advising Mubarak. Does anyone buy this nonsense?
Meanwhile, further statements from Hosni Mubarak and his regime give a sense of his current strategy. He implicitly blamed the Muslim Brotherhood for the sabotage and arson that has been committed against government institutions, including police stations. He contrasted the hooliganism of the Brotherhood with the peaceful aspirations of most Egyptians, and pledged to work for economic and social reform (while giving the pledge no content).
http://www.juancole.com/
“This is shameful.”
It’s also laughable. What the heck does Israel know about preserving stability in the region?
“An Open Letter to President Barack Obama”:
“As political scientists, historians, and researchers in related fields who have studied the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy, we the undersigned believe you have a chance to move beyond rhetoric to support the democratic movement sweeping over Egypt. As citizens, we expect our president to uphold those values.”
” It is also clear to us that if you seek, as you said Friday
This is shameful.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-urges-world-to-curb-criticism-of-egypt-s-mubarak-1.340238
Israel called on the United States and a number of European countries over the weekend to curb their criticism of President Hosni Mubarak to preserve stability in the region.
It doesn’ t matter that the Egyptian people suffer
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/01/former-managing-director-of-goldman.html
Just recorded live on Egypt. Gives Obama a slamming for lack of spine and hypocrisy.
“Egypt – what next?
Robert Fisk
Award winning Middle East Correspondent for The Independent
Professor Lawrence Pintak
Founding Dean of the Edward R. Murrow College of Communication at Washington State University; former Middle East Correspondent, CBS News.”
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/latenightlive/stories/2011/3126037.htm
From Antiwar.com
Hosni Mubarak
“Also on Monday, a leading Muslim Brotherhood official told The Associated Press that the fundamentalist movement wants to form a committee of opposition groups along with Nobel laureate and leading reform advocate Mohammad ElBaradei as a way of uniting the disparate groups calling for Mubarak’s ouster.
Sa’ad el-Katatni said that his group has not selected ElBaradei to represent it.”
same link as above.
Mahmoud Wagdy, Interior minister
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=206035
Unlike the Iranian Shia (who are expecting the return of the 12th Imam) Egyptian Sunna are generally conservative and without those irrational millennial urges.
As for religiosity in governance: don’t forget GWBush (who said Jsus was his favorite philosopher) and his mad court of wackers, including some US Generals who thought planes flying in the air were devils passing by; and of course, the odd apartheid state bent on living out the old tired ‘chosen ones’ fantasy on other people’s property.
ATMs are out of money. Banks are closed. Markets falling around the world and in the region….
Today’s US markets will be interesting. Bad day to cash out.
Police on the streets, low profile. Traffic control.
Million Man March on Tuesday.
Memes are amazing. And they are billing it as multicultural, to boot.
You know, one of the major things to remember about the possible asymmetry with Iran is that Iran has already happened and it’s possible that the MB doesn’t think it’s paradise.
The stated goals of the MB may not align with political reality and political reality is Twitter, Facebook, 80 million pissed off Egyptians, and a lot of faction.
Again, we’re not going to know til the dust settles. It’s right to be alarmed, but there’s no way to alter events, and further repression would just make the next bubble burst even worse.
Mubarak has a small chance for partial redemption by negotiating a quieter transition and I really hope that’s what’s happening behind the scenes.
The next govt will find some significant realities — the US provides a lot of money and it might be a good idea to keep that flowing. The military likes itself some pay and weapons systems and there’s nothing like a military complex to keep some policies in status quo. Further, once the governing power is in power, it will probably want to stay there and it may not actually welcome more radical elements. It’s hard to say, though. But there doesn’t seem to be a craving for theocracy, and my sense is that Iran actually liked the theocracy idea at first as the Shah had be relentlessly secular.
I think the US has a hard time with religious impulses in governing structures, and in fact, many people who have a religious bent don’t see that if you go too far with the religion-in-government thing, you don’t really get the version of religiosity you want. Iran seems to have had this problem.
I am hopeful that Egypt won’t walk the same path. After all, they have Iran as an example, and they haven’t been through the history of religious repression.
It’s good to keep these asymmetries in mind, while still remembering that the religious impulse in politics can be pretty potent and crazed. The US has plenty of our own theocratic leaning crazees.
King Tut II has spoken!
<<<<
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, facing a popular revolt against his rule, has ordered Ahmed Shafiq, the new prime minister to preserve subsidies, control inflation and provide more jobs.
Protesters who have rocked the nation of 80 million people, a key US ally in the Arab world, complain about surging prices and the growing inequality in the society but have also called for a new political system.
“I require you to bring back confidence in our economy,” Mubarak said in a letter to Shafiq, read on TV on Sunday.
“I trust your ability to implement economic policies that accord the highest concern to people’s suffering.
“I stress that subsidy provisions in their different forms must not be tampered with and that your government just challenge all forms of corruption,” Mubarak said….
<<<<
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/201113101237787481.html
Oh, to have some ‘Royal We’!
After 30 years he might even try rolling the tides back.
dirk, that was shorthand for: el Baradei is an Islamist supporter who spent years at the IAEA helping Iran deny their nuclear program was for military purposes; he would perform a similar function for the Muslim Brotherhood. He has been outside Egypt for years and is said to have very little political support inside the country, but every reporter knows his name, which makes him a great spokesman when you need someone to explain that you really are moderate now; those thousands of Egyptians killed in terror attacks in the 1990s and 2000s had nothing to do with you. In short, a great pawn for the Muslim Brotherhood.
“And don’t mention el Baradei, he’d just be a stooge for the Brotherhood like he was a stooge for Ahmedinejad.”
Nadine, you said on another post that someone was impersonated you. Is this quote also from someone trying to impugn your ability to form coherent thoughts? Reading some of your comments, it’s hard to tell sometimes.
Remember that the Quran includes the command to Muslim rulers to enforce virtue and forbid vice. Dress codes, Virtue Police beating women who show an ankle or men who shave, it’s all part of the package. Look at Saudi Arabia. And for whatever noises Qutb may have made about democracy, you don’t notice any new elections in, say, Gaza, do you? PM Erdogan said it best: “Democracy is a street car. When you get to your destination, you get off.”
“The Islamic part describes a theocracy that controls all aspects of life.”
In what way does it “control” it though? Qutb was a fairly naive utopian who thought that Muslims should be obedient to the law of God, but that life in accordance with the Quran requires no judges and no police. He apparently thought the law of God was somehow so natural and transparent to the believer that obedience ensued once the divine command was heard and understood.
“Sayyid Qutb’s seminal form of Islamism has been called “anarcho-Islamism” and holds that Muslims should resist all forms of government in which people are in servitude to other people. It really doesn’t have much in common with modern totalitarian thinking, or share the latter’s fondness for dictatorship and rigid bureaucratic hierarchy and control.”
Qutb regards the Quran as a literal book of instructions. He is demanding a pure theocracy where every aspect of life is ordered by the Quran, under Muslim leadership. The “anarcho-” part is only when Muslims live under non-Muslim leadership (which can include Muslim leaders that the Qutb’s followers think are corrupt). The Islamic part describes a theocracy that controls all aspects of life. That’s pretty totalitarian.
Have you read The Looming Tower? You really should.
Overheard: “Any fool knows that the CIA has engineered any number of dirty deeds. They could dump Mubarak in a heartbeat if they want to.”
One possibility is that the police are being redeployed to stop looters and restore basic security, but will not take action against the protesters. The protesters and residents have been organizing themselves into neighborhood watches to stop looting.
“”Islamism” has a specific meaning – it is the blending of ancient sharia law with modern dictatorship.”
Sorry, but that’s just wrong. First, “Islamism” is an exceedingly vague term, coined primarily by western social scientists in the second half of the 20th century, referring to all manner of attitudes that are all seen to be part of the broad and diverse resurgence of Islamic thought on political thinking that took place during that period. The leading thinkers of what we think of as the Islamist movement all favor in one way or another a return to traditional notions of Islamic governance – governance consistent with Islamic law – and have regarded modern totalitarianism and dictatorship, for example the Stalinist and Baathist type practiced by Saddam, as corrupt Western imports. The Muslim countries historically have generally been characterized by weak central states socially underpinned by networks of clans, tribes and emirates, and bear little resemblance to the dictatorial structures of modern totalitarianism.
Sayyid Qutb’s seminal form of Islamism has been called “anarcho-Islamism” and holds that Muslims should resist all forms of government in which people are in servitude to other people. It really doesn’t have much in common with modern totalitarian thinking, or share the latter’s fondness for dictatorship and rigid bureaucratic hierarchy and control.
Shariah is simply Islamic Law. Most of of the countries of the Middle East have long incorporated Shariah into their legal systems in at least some form – particular the civil realm – even during the 20th century. Some countries, like Egypt, Syria and Iraq, experienced more influence by western socialism and Arab nationalism and have seen more influence from western legal systems. On the Arabian Peninsula, the commitment to Islamic law was strong throughout.
In fact, few call the Saudis “Islamist”, even though the Saudis have funded Islamist movements, and although there are certainly Islamists who have been strongly influenced by the Wahhabi for of Salafism. The only governments that are labeled “Islamist” by contemporary polemicists are those that draw some inspiration from the modern movement of the same name. Theocracy on the Arab peninsula has been around forever, and the Saudi form dates to the 18th-century, and so is not really constitutive of the modern tendency of resurgence refereed to in the west as “Islamism”.
And a CNN journalist, IN Egypt, is verifying that captured looters are being found to be carrying Egyptian Police ID papers. The redeployment is no doubt going to be justified by the covert actions of the very forces being redeployed.
Should the police be redeployed this is going to get very bloody. It will be interesting to see what this fuckin’ posturing coward Obama has to say in the face of hundreds or thousands of dead Egyptians on the streets of Cairo.
“We simply don’t know what’s going to happen. We simply don’t know how the MB, or any other group, will act if they gain power. That’s why freezing all of them out was so counterproductive.” (John Waring)
This was the reasoning of the Weimar Republic which allowed the Nazi Party to put up Hitler as a candidate. They didn’t know how the Nazis would act if they gained power. The Conventional Wisdom of the day assumed the anti-Semitic rhetoric was just a ploy to gain support. They didn’t want to freeze them out.
Just a reminder that sometimes letting in a party in can be even more counterproductive than freezing it out. It pays to listen carefully to what the party’s own leaders say about it.
Mohammed Badi, leader of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, declared an aggressive jihad and war on America last October. Were you listening?
Read Lawrence Wright’s The Looming Tower for background info on the MB and their spinoff, al Qaeda.
It may be that there is nothing we can do to prevent an MB takeover and the ensuing bloodbath when they take revenge on Pharoah and his men. But this “who knows anything about the MB? nobody can tell what they will do” is fairly maddening. They themselves have told us what they will do in no uncertain terms. You just haven’t been listening.
STRATFOR reports that Interior Minister al-Adly is going to redeploy the police and crack down on the demonstrators. We’ll see if this is right soon enough.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110130-egyptian-police-redeploying
Dan, I’m confused – who doesn’t call Saudi Arabia Islamist? They are a theocracy. Corrupt, but a theocracy. They are in fact, responsible for much of the current wave of radical Islamism, since they have spent billions proselytizing a fundamentalist Wahhabi theology around the globe for 30 years.
“Islamism” is just the name a variety of different contemporary trends that have a common element in that they represent a resurgence of Islamic thought over politics in the Islamic world. But this is a region in which Islam has been the dominant unifying cultural and political force for over 1400 years! “Islamism” among Islamic peoples is pretty much to be expected. ”
Well, no, if it was to be expected then why wasn’t it there 80 years ago? or 40? You are using the word “Islamism” as if it meant no more than “Islamic” but this is incorrect. “Islamism” has a specific meaning – it is the blending of ancient sharia law with modern dictatorship. You can call Islamists “moderate” or “radical” depending on whether they want to attain power with elections or bombs; but once in, they don’t intend to give up power voluntarily.
Islam is one parent of Islamism; but fascism, which was extremely influential in the Arab world in the 1930s and 1940s, is the other.
“There can’t be elections outside of an already existing system that the protesters, this one at least, refuse.”
There is no contradiction. To get a democracy, they first have to eject their authoritarian government. Once they do, they can hopefully get a caretaker government filled with respected national figures that rules by popular consent during the transition period in which they set a date for elections and put in place a process for constitutional reform.
This has happened and succeeded many times before, most famously in a large number of Soviet bloc countries who accomplished precisely this feat following their own deposition of Soviet-era totalitarian regimes, but also in South Korea and the Philippines.
“Islamism” is just the name a variety of different contemporary trends that have a common element in that they represent a resurgence of Islamic thought over politics in the Islamic world. But this is a region in which Islam has been the dominant unifying cultural and political force for over 1400 years! “Islamism” among Islamic peoples is pretty much to be expected. The very idea that we can expect to see or foster governments that are resolutely secular and non-Islamic, and that ape the materialistic atheist values of the self-styled “modernists” of parts of the elite Western political class, is foolish, ahistorical, culturally illiterate and politically inept. The governments of that region have *always* been “Islamist”, at least since the time of Muhammad.
Strangely, the politics of Saudi Arabia is not generally categorized as “Islamist”, even though the government and political culture of Saudi Arabia is far more pervasively steeped in and committed to Islamic government than is a so-called “Islamist” polity like democratic Turkey. The Wahhabist Saudi clergy and their religious police is a very powerful and fiercely assertive and domineering force, and plays a massive role in the everyday life of Saudi Arabia. And yet the much milder Turkish polity catches the grief from American critics. I guess that’s just because Saudi Arabia is *so* conservative and *so* Islamic that they constitute for us a kind of “paleo-Islamism” that Westerners accept so long as the trade terms are acceptable. Or maybe we just have a romantic and reactionary attachment to kings and monarchies over messy democracies.
Though we can’t make the governments of the Islamic world thoroughly non-Islamic, we nmight have some not insignificant influence over the forms and nature of these governments in the region by the way in which we interact with these societies, and by pursuing policies that refrain from empowering the most extreme, xenophobic and reactionary elements in them. An Egypt with a democratic government in which there is a major party Islamist party is preferable to either the “modernizing” authoritarian torture factory that runs the country now or the more extreme form of Islamism which will eventually take over if the Islamic ummah remains the only form of constructive and politically legitimized political engagement that is open to people unhappy with their government, and the only unified social organization that enjoys enough immunity from the authoritarian state to constitute an opposition.
The United States has been making the same mistake in the Middle East that it made in Latin America in a previous generation, siding with authoritarian despots and brutal torturers – people like Pinochet – for example, because in the name of blocking Communism, it decided it preferred fascist corporatism and militarism, coupled with US fealty and dependence, to independent democratic socialism. The US could never understand that the manifestation of democracy in the Catholic cultures of Latin America, steeped in an ancient Church ethos of community obligation, cooperation and solidarity, was never going to look like the hyper-capitalistic self-interest driven individualism of the United States. Even now, we see a variety of socialist-inflected governments throughout Latin America. And they are hardly tearing down the world order.
General strike Monday and a big march Tues?????
Oops….
Link.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013003227_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2011013003319
This is really really interesting…
First you see this:
“”We want to be like America. We want to choose our president,” said Mohammed el-Rady, a 32-year-old accountant who works for the government but was nonetheless on the streets protesting against the president. “This movement is not about Islam. It’s not about religion. It’s about people who have been suffering for 30 years who want democracy.” ”
Which really sounds nice. He wants to choose. Fine.
But there’s this:
“The demonstrators, who proudly assert that they answer to no individual or organization, have demanded fair and free national elections to choose Egypt’s president.”
From the same article.
And there’s something of a contradiction here. Free to choose, refusing to choose at the same time. Now of course, the choice they want is electoral choice, but if you don’t have a system in place, a sort of pre-system or proto-system at any rate, it’s not like you can choose in elections. There can’t be elections outside of an already existing system that the protesters, this one at least, refuse.
Unless and until SOMEone provides a framework, something of a system, there won’t really be any meaningful choice to make. It’s one of those funny contradictions that we bump into. Freedom requires some amount of constraint, license isn’t really free it turns out.
Maybe some of the poets could work on this contradiction?
Considering the absolute maggot-like behaviour of some that have posted here, such as this Pearlman, a guy would have to be crazy to post using his actual identity. Trusting some maggot like Pearlman with that kind of information would be sheer stupidity.
In the last year of his life, Martin Luther King Jr. questioned US military interventions against progressive movements in the Third World by invoking a JFK quote: “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.”
Were he alive to witness the last three decades of US foreign policy, King might update that quote by noting: “Those who make secular revolution impossible will make extreme Islamist revolution inevitable.”
http://www.truth-out.org/jeff-cohen-fear-extreme-islamists-arab-world-blame-washington67267
Whereas, Bill “I notice that the most virulent anti-semites on this site hide behind acronyms” Pearlman (did you ever consider what “virtual” meant) is here because . . . well, why Bill?
BTW, are you related to the Far Rockaway Pearlmans? Judging from you demeanor, you would be the son/grandson. Big fat guy (weren’t they all) with a smelly cigar.
“Nadine has a legitimate concern that radicals may gain control in the Egyptian Revolution”
Actually, no matter WHO “gains control” they will of course be presented as radicals by Nadine and her ilk, no matter their true disposition. For Israel, Mubarak MUST be allowed to maintain control, and if not Mubarak, another suitable puppet that can be masqueraded as a “reformist”.
And if “radicals” do gain control, who’s fault is that? Cannot we accurately attribute their ascendency to our own (and Israel’s) policies these last few decades?
Simplifying, lets just call it “karma”.
Come on guys, Carroll and her side kick poa, could work it around to the Jews and Israel no matter what the topic is.
The Jacobins hijacked the French Revolution. The Bolsheviks hijacked the Russian Revolution. Both instituted reigns of terror.
Nadine has a legitimate concern that radicals may gain control in the Egyptian Revolution. Given the repression of the last thirty years, all bets are off.
We simply don’t know what’s going to happen. We simply don’t know how the MB, or any other group, will act if they gain power. That’s why freezing all of them out was so counterproductive.
“The country is descending into chaos with severe shortages of basic necessities, a lack of fundamental security – police, fire, etc, and a rise in paranoia and suspicion”
Undoubtedly, this is Mubarak’s strategy. When the anarchy becomes intolerable, he will crack down using the chaos and societal breakdown as a justification. Israel and the United States will present Mubarak’s crackdown as neccessary and just, while mewling some horseshit about how this event “has underscored the need for reforms, which Mubarak must implement immediately”, which, of course, he will not do, as media attention becomes focused elsewhere.
I may be wrong, but I just can’t see how Israel and the whores in DC can allow Mubarak to fall. It changes the entire complexion of the Middle East as it relates to Israel’s security, and her ability to maintain the status quo in Gaza.
leave nadine to entertain her imaginary enemies…changing peoples opinions and views is a fools game…
Nadine – Whether the Muslim Brotherhood turns out to be good guys or bad guys or something in the middle is irrelvent. There is not a damn thing the US or Israel can do about it one way or another. This is about the Egyptians – it’s their lives and land and they have to live with the consequences. No outside force is, or should be, making the choice for them.
My guess is that all the arab countries will become Islamic republics within the next 20 years. That goes for Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iraq. This is a phase of history that must take its course. Just like Communism had a limited lifetime of usefulness so will Islamism. When Islamism can no longer satisfy its population, it will tossed on the scapeheap of history, but not before then.
The west, including Israel, cannot stop this tide with words, money or military might. We should step aside and let it happen while protecting ourselves against its excesses.
For those of you who are not doing so already, I would recommend watching the live feed from Al-Jazeera in English at:
http://english.aljazeera.net/
The country is descending into chaos with severe shortages of basic necessities, a lack of fundamental security – police, fire, etc, and a rise in paranoia and suspicion. The situation will degrade into tremendous violence and irreparable political chaos and extremism without prompt action.
The US has already said that it now wants to see Egypt make a peaceful transition to the new government. The die is cast; we have already cut the tie with the Mubarak regime. Prominent global leaders need to throw their support to the transitional government movement that has emerged, make promises of aid and support to assist in the transition, encourage the Egyptian military to get on the side of al-Baradei and the transitional government, and help kick this transition into gear NOW.
“nadine, no one on here has said the Egyptian revolt was about Israel”
However, the United States’ response may well be “about Israel”.
We need to stay out of this.
Groton Guard detachment is heading to Egypt
Published 01/24/2011 12:00 AMUpdated 01/24/2011 04:59 AM0
Groton – Connecticut National Guard Detachment 2, Company I, 185th Aviation Regiment of Groton has mobilized and will deploy to the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt, to support the Multinational Force and Observers.
The unit left Connecticut Jan. 15 for Fort Benning, Ga., for further training and validation. The unit operates C-23C Sherpa aircraft and has deployed three times in the last seven years in support of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The unit will provide an on-demand aviation asset to the Multinational Force and Observers commander to support its mission of supervising the security provisions of the Egypt/ Israel Peace Treaty.
Chief Warrant Officer Four James Smith of Ivoryton commands the aviation unit.
Posted by nadine, Jan 30 2011, 4:01PM – Link
Carroll, I was talking about Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood and the nature of the opposition to Mubarak.
People who respond to that by saying “It’s the Jews! It’s the Zionists! It’s their fault! Everybody be disgusted with THEM!” — well I don’t have to say what they are, they’ve just demonstrated it themselves for all to see.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
nadine, no one on here has said the Egyptian revolt was about Israel. I think to a person everyone has commented on the economic inequity and the corruption and the repression under Mubarak.
You are just baiting again so you can insinuate that Israel critics are anti semites.
Exactly what is it you hope to accomplish on here?
Is this just your place to take out your resentment of gentiles, Europeans, Turks, Muslims, Arabs and the Israel critical non Jewish world in general?
I think your sabtoage of Steve and TNW and commenters here has failed..maybe you need to find a new baiting territory.
Again, the Army protects the protesters
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2011/0129/Army-protecting-Egypt-protesters-from-police-video?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+feeds%2Fworld+%28Christian+Science+Monitor+%7C+World%29
I would not worry about Mubarak and his family, questions. He has absconded with plenty of money over 30 years and must have plenty of houses as well.
But you are right to worry about the Egyptian people, where the next government places its loyalties, and the amount of violence and repression used in service of those loyalties.
Fragile balances, like you see in Lebanon, invite the self-serving intervention of all sorts of disreputable players from all sorts of neighbors and particularly outside powers.
So is Mubarak negotiating with Citibank for a good rate on a mortgage?
Or does he think he still has a country?
Or something link an army/police struggle???
“But the army took no steps against the protesters, who cheered as the helicopters and fighter jets passed overhead. In an unprecedented scene, some of them lofted a captain in uniform on their shoulders, marching him through a square suffused with protesters that cut across Egypt
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/01/is-egyptian-government-using-agents.html
So far, the army is neither enforcing the curfew nor telling Mubarak to go. The army is the kingmaker here. Until they take sides, the situation may stay in a standoff.
Banks closed,bread tripled in price, and the people keep defying the curfew. Amazing.
If they can stay organized through the restructuring, they might manage. That’s asking a lot of people, but certainly anyone who takes on a thugocracy is pretty amazing.
Hope someone finds a nice ski lodge or tropical straw hut for Mubarak. Whatever he wants.
And if the new “cabinet” can side with El Baradei maybe they can have a smoother rather than rougher transition.
You would think that the hasbaristas would spend their time on sites where people are a lot more gullible…like mainstream media blogs.
But I do enjoy watching their increasing levels of hysteria as their narrative loses currency.
Come on Carroll, you have a site where the jerusalem post is propaganda. And mondoweiss is seen has the gospel. Nobody is looking to change your mind or poa. It would be like Arafat liking women. Or Hitler becoming a zionist. Just calls for a little debate.
Carroll, I was talking about Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood and the nature of the opposition to Mubarak.
People who respond to that by saying “It’s the Jews! It’s the Zionists! It’s their fault! Everybody be disgusted with THEM!” — well I don’t have to say what they are, they’ve just demonstrated it themselves for all to see.
Can anyone figure out why nadine and wig and pearlman are even here except to make more enemies for Israel and do the Joooos baiting thing?
Seriously?
Their propaganda is ineffective and transparent and they haven’t been able to influence anyone’s opinions. On the contrary they have just increased people’s disgust with zionism and Israel.
I don’t get it. Are they just stupid? Do zionist think making themselves more and more repugnant to people is the key to victory for zionism and Israel?
Give it a rest nadine, using ‘anti American” in Israel’s behalf is as silly as your anti semite and evil Islam rants.
boooh!!! don’t be frightened little girl.
Egypt
“Israel may enter a North-Korean hysterical-paranoid state of mind, and that could be really dangerous for everyone.”
I’d say that the neocon/AIPAC crowd reached a hysterical-paranoid state of mind years ago, as you can see by the frenzied hysteria of some posters here.
BTW did you know that “As the Jewish Encyclopedia put it, “David waged a SACRED WAR OF EXTERMINATION against the Amalekites,” who may have subsequently disappeared from history.” (Wikipedia) So that precedent combined with the fact that the Likud and their settler crazies are once again fighting Amalek may pose an existential threat the rest of humanity should that hysterical-paranoid state of mind translate into desperate action.
“The MB has street cred, may have matured, may not do exactly what “we” (whoever that is) want, but may be able to take part in a coalition working group that goes the next step or two towards a government.”
Yes, questions, just like the MB offshoot Hamas, who took part in a coalition government in Gaza…until they machine-gunned their coalition partners and threw them off roofs, then took total power.
In any revolution with 90% disorganized moderates and 10% organized extremists, history tells you that you should bet on the extremists coming out on top. The moderates may not be willing to use violence, but the extremists certainly are. The percentage of organized extremists is probably even higher in Egypt, as Hamas and al Qaeda reinforcements pour in to help the MB.
I am afraid this is the Kerensky revolution…the Bolsheviks are organized and waiting for their moment to seize power…until they do, they will tell anyone foolish enough to listen how moderate they have become, and how willing they are to join a coalition government. The BBC et. al. will gladly report that the MB have been moderated by the prospect of responsibility. “Useful idiots,” as Lenin called them, are even more plentiful today than in Lenin’s time.
Blahblablahblah……
I guess Questions and Nadine have decided to take turns posting links to the JP propaganda arm of the Israeli government.
But no need for all this longwinded shit, really.
One need only ask the question; “If the “arab street”, (of ANY arab country), is represented democratically, with a say in their government’s actions and policies, will they support policies or actions that are complicit with Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians, Israel’s demonization of Iran, or continued blockade of the Gaza strip?”
The answer, is, “Of course not”.
Nor is the “arab street” prone to allow the continued meddling that the United States engages in the affairs of their governments.
The TRUTH is with all the slobbering in Israel and Washington about “democracy”, Israel and Washington are TERRIFIED of the prospect of the global Muslim community becoming democratized within their individual nations. Israel, and the United States, are LOSING CONTROL over middle eastern events, governments, and alliances. As Steve has pointed out, there is no “contingency plan” for what is unfolding. Obama and Netanyahu are being forced into knee jerk reactions, which could become quite dangerous. Netanyahu is a racist monster, and Obama is an inept coward. Its not hard to imagine who is going to be wearing the collar, and who is going to be holding the leash.
“Yes, according to al-Jazeera, the National Coalition for Change, which includes the Muslim Brotherhood but also several other opposition groups has coalesced around al-Baradei.” (Dan Kervick)
Thanks for that info, Dan, but it may mean no more than the MB has chosen el Baradei as a spokesman, knowing the importance of having a spokesman with the “credibility” of a phone number on Western reporters’ rolodexes. el Baradei’s sympathies have been openly Islamist for a long time (just like al Jazeera’s).
I notice that nobody has heard anything from any of the opposition candidates from last year’s fraudulent elections.
Oops, the link…
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=205794
JPost on “It’s not Israel” — the author notes the dearth of signs condemning Israel. Interesting observation.
Mild mannered doctors and lawyers and metrosexual 20-somethings don’t march in the street for other people. They march for themselves.
Suicide bombers don’t bomb for others, they bomb for themselves.
There’s plenty of ‘concern’ for other people, but that concern rarely turns into a willing revolution, a willing self-sacrifice, a willing radicalization.
These emotions/actions (wherever the line is between) come from one’s own condition, one’s own hopes and those of one’s own family and close circle.
For sure, Israel has massive security concerns at this point, and for sure they are running risk analysis flow charts, downing Prozac and cocaine by the ton, and beta blockers come to think of it, and they, like the rest of us are waiting, spying, hoping for stable shifts rather than crazed shifts.
The MB has street cred, may have matured, may not do exactly what “we” (whoever that is) want, but may be able to take part in a coalition working group that goes the next step or two towards a government.
My current suggestion is to call Colombia, as they have rooted out deep corruption to a large extent, and their judiciary seems to function, or so I’ve read.
Maybe that’s the model?
And if I were the MB, I’d keep the Gaza border closed, but I’d send huge amounts of food, toys, cement mix, bricks and the like through a large tunnel.
You don’t need the people coming in, but man do you need to support them on the human rights level.
Oh, Paul, I think NK is a little further than they’ll go, but I think Israel can get pretty batshit insane while stopping short of that.
http://palestinenote.com/blogs/news/archive/2011/01/28/don-t-fear-egypt-s-muslim-brotherhood.aspx
From the NYT article Questions linked to:
“Events of the past five years
nadine, you apparently missed both of my messages above, so I’ll repeat it again. Now I will suggest you stop the ad hominems (I consider “anti-American” a strong ad hominem, since I am an American; remember Joe McCarthy) and, in addition, you’re bordering on harrassment:
nadine, I don’t need to remind everyone that you have very recently been threatened with being barred from commenting here because of your ad hominem attacks and specifically virulent accusations of anti-Semitism. Your credibility to comment in objective ways on a matters crucial to neocon/Likudist interest is zero. You made that bed now lie in it.
DonS, I don’t do ad hominems; they are the specialty of your side of the argument on TWN. Just look at the names I’ve been called on this thread alone. I merely asked you to name some Mideast policy question where you did not wind up on the same side as Ahmedinejad and Hizbullah. Is there one?
For anyone inclined to believe MB’s current protestations that they are not violent or extreme, I suggest reading Lawrence Wright’s The Looming Tower, where he goes into their philosophy and background in some detail. They learned to lay low after they massacred dozens of tourist in Luxor in the 1990s and got crushed by Mubarak and Suleiman.
Speaking about Bergen, I saw the most bizzarre interview on CNN last night. It had Max Boot interviewing Bergen about Bergen’s new book. WTF is Max Boot doing as an interviewer on CNN??? Shouldn’t an interviewer be someone that can at least PRETEND to be presenting an unbiased line of questioning?
“Have you seen an iota of evidence that he has any following inside Egypt?”
Yes, according to al-Jazeera, the National Coalition for Change, which includes the Muslim Brotherhood but also several other opposition groups has coalesced around al-Baradei.
NYT live feed,
Kristof is in Egypt:
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/latest-updates-on-day-6-of-egypt-protests/?hp
Do you remember that line from the old saturday night live
program…Jane you ignorant sl-t.
nadine and her ziocon friends are fear mongering their way into
the sheeples heart by using the muslim brotherhood as their
whipping boy.
this below is from mondoweiss dot net.
3. Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood. The most important statement
on cable news I have seen in days came from Peter Bergen,
security analyst for CNN, when he demolished an anchor’s
suggestion that the Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist
organization. The MB is a “responsible” organization that has
renounced terrorist tactics long ago. “Of course they are
democratic,” Bergen said.”These groups are all around the Middle
East, sometimes they become the government. We saw that with
Hamas.” Brilliant breakthrough, thank you Bergen. James North
pointed out days ago here that MB wants nothing to do with Al
Qaeda.
http://mondoweiss.net/2011/01/correcting-a-slur-against-
egypts-muslim-brotherhood.html
Here’s a nice summary of the Israeli concerns and involvement:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/middleeast/31israel.html?hp
nadine, apparently you missed my comment, so I’ll repeat it, and suggest you to stop the ad hominem:
nadine, I don’t need to remind everyone that you have very recently been threatened with being barred from commenting here because of your ad hominem attacks and specifically virulent accusations of anti-Semitism. Your credibility to comment in objective ways on a matters crucial to neocon/Likudist interest is zero. You made that bed now lie in it.
Of course it goes without saying that my 1:04 comment was directed towards the gaseous ruminations of the waffle-brained “questions” character.
DonS, care to name a single Mideast policy position where you are not on the same side as Ahmedinejad and Hizbullah?
el Baradei is one of those figures who is known to the BBC. Have you seen an iota of evidence that he has any following inside Egypt? He would just be a stooge for the MB anyway, did you catch him telling Christiane Amanpour that the MB are not extremist?
If the Egyptian army has any brains, they will remember the fate of the Iranian army after they did a deal with Khomenei.
Here’s a report from an Israeli tour guide who says the protesters are very friendly to Israeli tourists:
“The attitude towards us as Israelis and tourist is very friendly. Actually, they’re overly nice compared to my previous visits in Egypt. The Egyptians want to explain themselves, to tell everyone about their struggle. They speak Arabic over here so it’s easy to communicate with them. On Friday we went right past the demonstrations on our way back from the pyramids, and people helped us get though the crowd.”
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4021125,00.html
This protest is not about Israel.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The people of Egypt want what we all want. But besides the essential commodities of day to day life, they want ideological representation from their government. Mubarak’s complicity with the United States in regards to Israel IS NOT representative of the “arab street’s” sentiments, regardless of what Wiggie or this fuckin’ bigot Nadine say.
You want to separate Israel from what is occurring. But you can’t, because whatever policies we (Washington) adopt, posture we assume, and manipulations we employ, will ALL be done with our relationship with Israel as a primary consideration, the welfare and “rights” of the Egyptian people being secondary. I well know your asinine and disingenuous denial of the sway that Israel holds over American foreign policy. I don’t need one more obsfucating and diversionary bit of intellectual gymnastics from you as further evidence of what a long-winded jackass you can be in advancing a ridiculous argument. Go jerk off with Nadine, she’s more than willing to play your games.
Gary Sick is adjunct professor of Middle East politics at Columbia
University. He was a member of the National Security Council
staff under presidents Ford, Carter and Reagan and was the
principal White House aide for Iran during the Iranian Revolution
and the subsequent hostage crisis.
“The stakes are sky high. Egypt is the linchpin to peace in the
Middle East. So long as Egypt refrains from warring against
Israel, other Arab states cannot take military action by
themselves…
So in some minds, the issue is primarily about Israel. As far as I
can tell, the government of Israel has yet to declare itself on the
wave of uprisings in the Arab world. But if this is an Israeli issue,
then it is not just a U.S. foreign-policy problem but also a
domestic one, especially in the run up to a presidential election
year. The stakes, indeed, could be very high.
It is often forgotten, but there was a major Israeli dimension to
the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 as well. The shah of Iran was
Israel’s best friend in the Muslim world, an essential part of
Israel’s doctrine of the periphery. Israel not only cultivated
nations just outside the core Arab center, but in the case of Iran
received a substantial portion of its energy supplies via covert oil
deliveries to Eilat from the Persian Gulf. Israel and Iran also
collaborated on joint development and testing of a ballistic
missile system capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/29/the_worst_o
f_both_worlds?page=0,0
nadine, I don’t need to remind everyone that you have very recently been threatened with being barred from commenting here because of your ad hominem attacks and specifically virulent accusations of anti-Semitism. Your credibility to comment in objective ways on a matters crucial to neocon/Likudist interest is zero. You made that bed now lie in it.
The crucial question right now: will the army chose to support
Mubarak or al-Baradei?
Al-Baradei on BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12319885
DonS, it is you who play “for a different team” – Team Anti-America. Every time American interests are threatened, you are right there with Ahmedinejad and Hizbullah, joyful.
Or would you care to explain how an MB takeover of Egypt benefits America?
POA,
Egypt doesn;t revolve around Israel. It’s a corrupt government with a wide disparity between wealth and poverty, a political culture in which bribery is standard operating practice (read up on what a culture of bribery does to people), and ther unemployment rate is significant, even among the educated.
There’s nothing here about Israel or the Palestinians. To the extent that that comes up, it’s a side issue. People want food, jobs, and services. They don’t want to bribe, they don’t want to be tortured. They’d like elections, too. But at the top is food, jobs, and services.
‘Radicalized elements’ work because they have an advantage in providing services, not because of the Palestinians. Intensity of belief makes for cohesive groups and cohesion matters in the delivery of services. Wishy washy vague-believers or non-believers are less likely to feel the passion to join interest groups (which is basically what the MB seems to be) and so wishy washy-ists don’t end up running things.
It looks like the main opposition groups and forces are now successfully coalescing around al-Baradei.
“I have to say that the title of this post represents a rather audacious insult to the reputation of George Mitchell.” (dan k)
hear, hear!
How much longer will the foot dragging of the US govt continue before it becomes apparent that the ‘caution’ that is being displayed is really a sign that the Israel advocates/interests within the administration are calling the ‘go slow’ shots?
Develop ‘democracy’, but on our terms, has been the US policy all along.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/world/middleeast/30diplo.html?hp
Once again, the forces of AIPAC and the neocon/zionist rump are revealed for their corrosive impact on American foreign policy.
The Mondo article, as well as the Rockwell piece underscore how these assholes like Schumer are completely unwilling to admit that it is Israel’s own actions that radicalize the Muslims and set the stage for elections within democratized Arab nations that favor radicalized elements of the Muslim community.
Schumer is an embarrasment, someone who’s loyalties are blatantly polar to his calling. Our “leaders” cannot serve two masters, try as they may. As history trudges on, the interests of the United States, and that of Israel, become more and more divergent. How much longer can these poseurs like Schumer maintain the charade of “representing” our best intersts?
I wrote:
“Comparing him to a technocratic thug like Suleiman, who is the director of the Egyptian version of Savak, an “intelligence service” with both foreign and domestic scope.”
I meant to write:
“Comparing him to a technocratic thug like Suleiman, who is the director of the Egyptian version of Savak, an “intelligence service” with both foreign and domestic scope, is entirely inappropriate.”
I have to say that the title of this post represents a rather audacious insult to the reputation of George Mitchell. Whatever one thinks of his effectiveness, or lack of it, in his most recent role, George Mitchell is decent man. He was an honest public servant, a lawyer dedicated to the rule of law, and an elected governor and Senator in a democratic society. Comparing him to a technocratic thug like Suleiman, who is the director of the Egyptian version of Savak, an “intelligence service” with both foreign and domestic scope.
Here is what George Mitchell said once about the rule of law, and the consistent adherence to democratic ideals.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThEMsxcAqu8
Lew Rockwell take of Chuck Shumer ziocon.